Physically-based Assessment of Hurricane Surge Threat under Climate Change

Storm surges are responsible for much of the damage and loss of life associated with landfalling hurricanes. Understanding how global warming will affect hurricane surges thus holds great interest. As general circulation models (GCMs) cannot simulate hurricane surges directly, we couple a GCM-driven hurricane model with hydrodynamic models to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events under projected climates and assess surge threat, as an example, for New York City (NYC). Struck by many intense hurricanes in recorded history and prehistory, NYC is highly vulnerable to storm surges. We show that the change of storm climatology will probably increase the surge risk for NYC; results based on two GCMs show the distribution of surge levels shifting to higher values by a magnitude comparable to the projected sea-level rise (SLR). The combined effects of storm climatology change and a 1 m SLR may cause the present NYC 100-yr surge flooding to occur every 3–20 yr and the present 500-yr flooding to occur every 25–240 yr by the end of the century.United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Postdoctoral Fellowship Program)National Science Foundation (U.S.

Foxp3 expression in human cancer cells

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

Circumstellar disks and planets. Science cases for next-generation optical/infrared long-baseline interferometers

We present a review of the interplay between the evolution of circumstellar disks and the formation of planets, both from the perspective of theoretical models and dedicated observations. Based on this, we identify and discuss fundamental questions concerning the formation and evolution of circumstellar disks and planets which can be addressed in the near future with optical and infrared long-baseline interferometers. Furthermore, the importance of complementary observations with long-baseline (sub)millimeter interferometers and high-sensitivity infrared observatories is outlined.Comment: 83 pages; Accepted for publication in "Astronomy and Astrophysics Review"; The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.co

Successful Weight Loss Surgery Improves Eating Control and Energy Metabolism: A Review of the Evidence

Eating behavior is determined by a balance of memories in terms of reward and punishment to satisfy the urge to consume food. Refilling empty energy stores and hedonistic motivation are rewarding aspects of eating. Overfeeding, associated adverse GI effects, and obesity implicate punishment. In the current review, evidence is given for the hypothesis that bariatric surgery affects control over eating behavior.Moreover, any caloric overload will reduce the feeling of satiety. Durable weight loss after bariatric surgery is probably the result of a new equilibrium between reward and punishment, together with a better signaling of satiation due to beneficial metabolic changes.We propose to introduce three main treatment goals for bariatric surgery: 1) acceptable weight loss, 2) improvement of eating control, and 3) metabolic benefit. To achieve this goal, loss of 50% to 70% of excess weight will be appropriate (i.e. 30% to 40% loss of initial weight), depending on the degree of obesity prior to operation

Understanding non-governmental organizations in world politics: the promise and pitfalls of the early ‘science of internationalism’

The years immediately preceding the First World War witnessed the development of a significant body of literature claiming to establish a ‘science of internationalism’. This article draws attention to the importance of this literature, especially in relation to understanding the roles of non-governmental organizations in world politics. It elaborates the ways in which this literature sheds light on issues that have become central to twenty-first century debates, including the characteristics, influence, and legitimacy of non-governmental organizations in international relations. Amongst the principal authors discussed in the article are Paul Otlet, Henri La Fontaine and Alfred Fried, whose role in the development of international theory has previously received insufficient attention. The article concludes with evaluation of potential lessons to be drawn from the experience of the early twentieth century ‘science of internationalism’

Neurophysiologic effects of spinal manipulation in patients with chronic low back pain

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>While there is growing evidence for the efficacy of SM to treat LBP, little is known on the mechanisms and physiologic effects of these treatments. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to determine whether SM alters the amplitude of the motor evoked potential (MEP) or the short-latency stretch reflex of the erector spinae muscles, and whether these physiologic responses depend on whether SM causes an audible joint sound.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used transcranial magnetic stimulation to elicit MEPs and electromechanical tapping to elicit short-latency stretch reflexes in 10 patients with chronic LBP and 10 asymptomatic controls. Neurophysiologic outcomes were measured before and after SM. Changes in MEP and stretch reflex amplitude were examined based on patient grouping (LBP vs. controls), and whether SM caused an audible joint sound.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>SM did not alter the erector spinae MEP amplitude in patients with LBP (0.80 ± 0.33 vs. 0.80 ± 0.30 μV) or in asymptomatic controls (0.56 ± 0.09 vs. 0.57 ± 0.06 μV). Similarly, SM did not alter the erector spinae stretch reflex amplitude in patients with LBP (0.66 ± 0.12 vs. 0.66 ± 0.15 μV) or in asymptomatic controls (0.60 ± 0.09 vs. 0.55 ± 0.08 μV). Interestingly, study participants exhibiting an audible response exhibited a 20% decrease in the stretch reflex (p < 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These findings suggest that a single SM treatment does not systematically alter corticospinal or stretch reflex excitability of the erector spinae muscles (when assessed ~ 10-minutes following SM); however, they do indicate that the stretch reflex is attenuated when SM causes an audible response. This finding provides insight into the mechanisms of SM, and suggests that SM that produces an audible response may mechanistically act to decrease the sensitivity of the muscle spindles and/or the various segmental sites of the Ia reflex pathway.</p

A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa

Observations and simulations link anthropogenic greenhouse and aerosol emissions with rapidly increasing Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Over the past 60 years, the Indian Ocean warmed two to three times faster than the central tropical Pacific, extending the tropical warm pool to the west by ~40° longitude (><4,000 km). This propensity toward rapid warming in the Indian Ocean has been the dominant mode of interannual variability among SSTs throughout the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (55°E–140°W) since at least 1948, explaining more variance than anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the atmosphere, the primary mode of variability has been a corresponding trend toward greatly increased convection and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The temperature and rainfall increases in this region have produced a westward extension of the western, ascending branch of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Diabatic heating due to increased mid-tropospheric water vapor condensation elicits a westward atmospheric response that sends an easterly flow of dry air aloft toward eastern Africa. In recent decades (1980–2009), this response has suppressed convection over tropical eastern Africa, decreasing precipitation during the ‘long-rains’ season of March–June. This trend toward drought contrasts with projections of increased rainfall in eastern Africa and more ‘El Niño-like’ conditions globally by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Increased Indian Ocean SSTs appear likely to continue to strongly modulate the Warm Pool circulation, reducing precipitation in eastern Africa, regardless of whether the projected trend in ENSO is realized. These results have important food security implications, informing agricultural development, environmental conservation, and water resource planning