Towards a general framework for predicting threat status of data-deficient species from phylogenetic, spatial and environmental information

In taxon-wide assessments of threat status many species remain not included owing to lack of data. Here, we present a novel spatial-phylogenetic statistical framework that uses a small set of readily available or derivable characteristics, including phylogenetically imputed body mass and remotely sensed human encroachment, to provide initial baseline predictions of threat status for data-deficient species. Applied to assessed mammal species worldwide, the approach effectively identifies threatened species and predicts the geographical variation in threat. For the 483 data-deficient species, the models predict highly elevated threat, with 69% ‘at-risk’ species in this set, compared with 22% among assessed species. This results in 331 additional potentially threatened mammals, with elevated conservation importance in rodents, bats and shrews, and countries like Colombia, Sulawesi and the Philippines. These findings demonstrate the future potential for combining phylogenies and remotely sensed data with species distributions to identify species and regions of conservation concern

Estimating the number needed to treat from continuous outcomes in randomised controlled trials: methodological challenges and worked example using data from the UK Back Pain Exercise and Manipulation (BEAM) trial

Background Reporting numbers needed to treat (NNT) improves interpretability of trial results. It is unusual that continuous outcomes are converted to numbers of individual responders to treatment (i.e., those who reach a particular threshold of change); and deteriorations prevented are only rarely considered. We consider how numbers needed to treat can be derived from continuous outcomes; illustrated with a worked example showing the methods and challenges. Methods We used data from the UK BEAM trial (n = 1, 334) of physical treatments for back pain; originally reported as showing, at best, small to moderate benefits. Participants were randomised to receive 'best care' in general practice, the comparator treatment, or one of three manual and/or exercise treatments: 'best care' plus manipulation, exercise, or manipulation followed by exercise. We used established consensus thresholds for improvement in Roland-Morris disability questionnaire scores at three and twelve months to derive NNTs for improvements and for benefits (improvements gained+deteriorations prevented). Results At three months, NNT estimates ranged from 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 10.7) to 9.0 (5.0 to 45.5) for exercise, 5.0 (3.4 to 9.8) to 5.4 (3.8 to 9.9) for manipulation, and 3.3 (2.5 to 4.9) to 4.8 (3.5 to 7.8) for manipulation followed by exercise. Corresponding between-group mean differences in the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire were 1.6 (0.8 to 2.3), 1.4 (0.6 to 2.1), and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.6) points. Conclusion In contrast to small mean differences originally reported, NNTs were small and could be attractive to clinicians, patients, and purchasers. NNTs can aid the interpretation of results of trials using continuous outcomes. Where possible, these should be reported alongside mean differences. Challenges remain in calculating NNTs for some continuous outcomes

Dust-free quasars in the early Universe

The most distant quasars known, at redshifts z=6, generally have properties indistinguishable from those of lower-redshift quasars in the rest-frame ultraviolet/optical and X-ray bands. This puzzling result suggests that these distant quasars are evolved objects even though the Universe was only seven per cent of its current age at these redshifts. Recently one z=6 quasar was shown not to have any detectable emission from hot dust, but it was unclear whether that indicated different hot-dust properties at high redshift or if it is simply an outlier. Here we report the discovery of a second quasar without hot-dust emission in a sample of 21 z=6 quasars. Such apparently hot-dust-free quasars have no counterparts at low redshift. Moreover, we demonstrate that the hot-dust abundance in the 21 quasars builds up in tandem with the growth of the central black hole, whereas at low redshift it is almost independent of the black hole mass. Thus z=6 quasars are indeed at an early evolutionary stage, with rapid mass accretion and dust formation. The two hot-dust-free quasars are likely to be first-generation quasars born in dust-free environments and are too young to have formed a detectable amount of hot dust around them.Comment: To be published in Nature on the 18 March 2010

Assessment and Implication of Prognostic Imbalance in Randomized Controlled Trials with a Binary Outcome – A Simulation Study

Chance imbalance in baseline prognosis of a randomized controlled trial can lead to over or underestimation of treatment effects, particularly in trials with small sample sizes. Our study aimed to (1) evaluate the probability of imbalance in a binary prognostic factor (PF) between two treatment arms, (2) investigate the impact of prognostic imbalance on the estimation of a treatment effect, and (3) examine the effect of sample size (n) in relation to the first two objectives.We simulated data from parallel-group trials evaluating a binary outcome by varying the risk of the outcome, effect of the treatment, power and prevalence of the PF, and n. Logistic regression models with and without adjustment for the PF were compared in terms of bias, standard error, coverage of confidence interval and statistical power.For a PF with a prevalence of 0.5, the probability of a difference in the frequency of the PF≥5% reaches 0.42 with 125/arm. Ignoring a strong PF (relative risk = 5) leads to underestimating the strength of a moderate treatment effect, and the underestimate is independent of n when n is >50/arm. Adjusting for such PF increases statistical power. If the PF is weak (RR = 2), adjustment makes little difference in statistical inference. Conditional on a 5% imbalance of a powerful PF, adjustment reduces the likelihood of large bias. If an absolute measure of imbalance ≥5% is deemed important, including 1000 patients/arm provides sufficient protection against such an imbalance. Two thousand patients/arm may provide an adequate control against large random deviations in treatment effect estimation in the presence of a powerful PF.The probability of prognostic imbalance in small trials can be substantial. Covariate adjustment improves estimation accuracy and statistical power, and hence should be performed when strong PFs are observed

Sprint interval and sprint continuous training increases circulating CD34+ cells and cardio-respiratory fitness in young healthy women

The improvement of vascular health in the exercising limb can be attained by sprint interval training (SIT). However, the effects on systemic vascular function and on circulating angiogenic cells (CACs) which may contribute to endothelial repair have not been investigated. Additionally, a comparison between SIT and sprint continuous training (SCT) which is less time committing has not been made

Bat Eyes Have Ultraviolet-Sensitive Cone Photoreceptors

Mammalian retinae have rod photoreceptors for night vision and cone photoreceptors for daylight and colour vision. For colour discrimination, most mammals possess two cone populations with two visual pigments (opsins) that have absorption maxima at short wavelengths (blue or ultraviolet light) and long wavelengths (green or red light). Microchiropteran bats, which use echolocation to navigate and forage in complete darkness, have long been considered to have pure rod retinae. Here we use opsin immunohistochemistry to show that two phyllostomid microbats, Glossophaga soricina and Carollia perspicillata, possess a significant population of cones and express two cone opsins, a shortwave-sensitive (S) opsin and a longwave-sensitive (L) opsin. A substantial population of cones expresses S opsin exclusively, whereas the other cones mostly coexpress L and S opsin. S opsin gene analysis suggests ultraviolet (UV, wavelengths <400 nm) sensitivity, and corneal electroretinogram recordings reveal an elevated sensitivity to UV light which is mediated by an S cone visual pigment. Therefore bats have retained the ancestral UV tuning of the S cone pigment. We conclude that bats have the prerequisite for daylight vision, dichromatic colour vision, and UV vision. For bats, the UV-sensitive cones may be advantageous for visual orientation at twilight, predator avoidance, and detection of UV-reflecting flowers for those that feed on nectar

Der frühe Beginn der Zwangsstörung

Einleitung: Die vorliegende Untersuchung geht der Fragestellung nach, ob sich eine Zwangsstörung, die bereits im Kindes- bzw. Jugendalter beginnt, von einer Zwangsstörung, die erst im Erwachsenenalter beginnt, hinsichtlich Schweregrad und Symptomatik unterscheidet. Patienten und Methoden: Eine Stichprobe von 370 Patienten mit Zwangsstörung (ICD-10 F42), die sich zwischen 1998 und 2002 stationär in der Psychosomatischen Klinik Windach befanden, wurde in eine Early-Onset-Gruppe (Störungsbeginn ≤15 Jahre) und in eine Late-Onset-Gruppe (Störungsbeginn ≥16 Jahre) aufgeteilt. Die Gruppen wurden über ICD-10-Diagnosen und Y-BOCSWerte verglichen. Ergebnisse: Beim Schweregrad zeigte sich, dass 20,5% der Early-Onset-Gruppe, aber lediglich 8,7% der Late-Onset-Gruppe unter einer «massiven Zwangsstörung» leiden. Bei der Symptomatik zeigte sich, dass die Early-Onset-Gruppe häufiger die Diagnose «Zwangsgedanken und -handlungen gemischt» (76,9%)erhält als die Late-Onset-Gruppe (61,8%). Außerdem nennt die Early-Onset-Gruppe sowohl für die Gegenwart als auch für die Vergangenheit mehr Symptome als die Late-Onset-Gruppe (Gegenwart 8,2 vs. 7,0; Vergangenheit 5,5 vs. 3,9 Symptomgruppen). Weiter ergaben sich inhaltliche Unterschiede der Zwangsgedanken und Zwangshandlungen. Schlussfolgerungen: Early-Onset-Patienten scheinen häufiger von einer massiven Form der Zwangsstörung und einer größeren Symptomvielfalt betroffen zu sein als Late-Onset-Patienten. Ob es sich bei der Zwangsstörung mit Beginn im Kindes- und Jugendalter um einen abgrenzbaren Subtypus handelt, konnte jedoch in dieser Untersuchung nicht eindeutig geklärt werden und bedarf weiterer Forschungen.Introduction: This study investigates if obsessive compulsive disorder with early onset differs in severity and symptomatology from that with late onset. Patients and Methods: A sample of 370 patients with obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD; ICD 10 F42) who received in-patient treatment at the psychosomatic clinic of Windach between 1998 and 2002 were divided into an early-onset group (onset ≤15 years) and a late-onset group (onset ≥16 years). Groups were compared regarding ICD-10 diagnosis and Y-BOCS scores. Results: Considering severity of the disorder 20.5% of the early-onset group but merely 8.7% of the late-onset group suffered from an extreme form of OCD. With respect to symptomatology, the early-onset group was diagnosed with ‘obsessions and compulsions, mixed’ (76.9%) more often than the lateonset group (61.8%). Also, the early-onset group reported a wider variety of symptoms both for the present and for the past than the late-onset group (present 8,2 vs 7.0; past 5.5 vs 3.9 types of symptoms). There were also differences in the content of rumination and types of compulsive rituals. Conclusions: Patients with early-onset OCD seem to be more frequently affected by an extreme form of OCD and to experience a higher variety of symptoms than patients with late-onset OCD. If early-onset OCD can be considered a distinct subtype could not be answered unequivocally by the results of this study. This question needs additional research

A Regression-based K nearest neighbor algorithm for gene function prediction from heterogeneous data

BACKGROUND: As a variety of functional genomic and proteomic techniques become available, there is an increasing need for functional analysis methodologies that integrate heterogeneous data sources. METHODS: In this paper, we address this issue by proposing a general framework for gene function prediction based on the k-nearest-neighbor (KNN) algorithm. The choice of KNN is motivated by its simplicity, flexibility to incorporate different data types and adaptability to irregular feature spaces. A weakness of traditional KNN methods, especially when handling heterogeneous data, is that performance is subject to the often ad hoc choice of similarity metric. To address this weakness, we apply regression methods to infer a similarity metric as a weighted combination of a set of base similarity measures, which helps to locate the neighbors that are most likely to be in the same class as the target gene. We also suggest a novel voting scheme to generate confidence scores that estimate the accuracy of predictions. The method gracefully extends to multi-way classification problems. RESULTS: We apply this technique to gene function prediction according to three well-known Escherichia coli classification schemes suggested by biologists, using information derived from microarray and genome sequencing data. We demonstrate that our algorithm dramatically outperforms the naive KNN methods and is competitive with support vector machine (SVM) algorithms for integrating heterogenous data. We also show that by combining different data sources, prediction accuracy can improve significantly. CONCLUSION: Our extension of KNN with automatic feature weighting, multi-class prediction, and probabilistic inference, enhance prediction accuracy significantly while remaining efficient, intuitive and flexible. This general framework can also be applied to similar classification problems involving heterogeneous datasets

Reevaluation of the Value of Autoparasitoids in Biological Control

Autoparasitoids with the capacity of consuming primary parasitoids that share the same hosts to produce males are analogous to intraguild predators. The use of autoparasitoids in biological control programs is a controversial matter because there is little evidence to support the view that autoparasitoids do not disrupt and at times may promote suppression of insect pests in combination with primary parasitoids. We found that Encarsia sophia, a facultative autoparasitoid, preferred to use heterospecific hosts as secondary hosts for producing males. The autoparasitoids mated with males originated from heterospecifics may parasitize more hosts than those mated with males from conspecifics. Provided with an adequate number of males, the autoparasitoids killed more hosts than En. formosa, a commonly used parasitoid for biological control of whiteflies. This study supports the view that autoparasitoids in combination with primary parasitoids do not disrupt pest management and may enhance such programs. The demonstrated preference of an autoparasitoid for heterospecifics and improved performance of males from heterospecifics observed in this study suggests these criteria should be considered in strategies that endeavor to mass-produce and utilize autoparasitoids in the future