Towards a general framework for predicting threat status of data-deficient species from phylogenetic, spatial and environmental information

In taxon-wide assessments of threat status many species remain not included owing to lack of data. Here, we present a novel spatial-phylogenetic statistical framework that uses a small set of readily available or derivable characteristics, including phylogenetically imputed body mass and remotely sensed human encroachment, to provide initial baseline predictions of threat status for data-deficient species. Applied to assessed mammal species worldwide, the approach effectively identifies threatened species and predicts the geographical variation in threat. For the 483 data-deficient species, the models predict highly elevated threat, with 69% ‘at-risk’ species in this set, compared with 22% among assessed species. This results in 331 additional potentially threatened mammals, with elevated conservation importance in rodents, bats and shrews, and countries like Colombia, Sulawesi and the Philippines. These findings demonstrate the future potential for combining phylogenies and remotely sensed data with species distributions to identify species and regions of conservation concern

Connecting Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless and BEC Phase Transitions by Tuning Interactions in a Trapped Gas.

We study the critical point for the emergence of coherence in a harmonically trapped two-dimensional Bose gas with tunable interactions. Over a wide range of interaction strengths we find excellent agreement with the classical-field predictions for the critical point of the Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless (BKT) superfluid transition. This allows us to quantitatively show, without any free parameters, that the interaction-driven BKT transition smoothly converges onto the purely quantum-statistical Bose-Einstein condensation transition in the limit of vanishing interactions.This work was supported by AFOSR, ARO, DARPA OLE, and EPSRC [Grant No. EP/K003615/1]. N. N. acknowledges support from Trinity College, Cambridge, R. P. S. from the Royal Society, and K. G. H. V. from DAAD.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from APS via http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.114.25530

Understanding the threats posed by non-native species: public vs. conservation managers.

Public perception is a key factor influencing current conservation policy. Therefore, it is important to determine the influence of the public, end-users and scientists on the prioritisation of conservation issues and the direct implications for policy makers. Here, we assessed public attitudes and the perception of conservation managers to five non-native species in the UK, with these supplemented by those of an ecosystem user, freshwater anglers. We found that threat perception was not influenced by the volume of scientific research or by the actual threats posed by the specific non-native species. Media interest also reflected public perception and vice versa. Anglers were most concerned with perceived threats to their recreational activities but their concerns did not correspond to the greatest demonstrated ecological threat. The perception of conservation managers was an amalgamation of public and angler opinions but was mismatched to quantified ecological risks of the species. As this suggests that invasive species management in the UK is vulnerable to a knowledge gap, researchers must consider the intrinsic characteristics of their study species to determine whether raising public perception will be effective. The case study of the topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva reveals that media pressure and political debate has greater capacity to ignite policy changes and impact studies on non-native species than scientific evidence alone

Estimating the number needed to treat from continuous outcomes in randomised controlled trials: methodological challenges and worked example using data from the UK Back Pain Exercise and Manipulation (BEAM) trial

Background Reporting numbers needed to treat (NNT) improves interpretability of trial results. It is unusual that continuous outcomes are converted to numbers of individual responders to treatment (i.e., those who reach a particular threshold of change); and deteriorations prevented are only rarely considered. We consider how numbers needed to treat can be derived from continuous outcomes; illustrated with a worked example showing the methods and challenges. Methods We used data from the UK BEAM trial (n = 1, 334) of physical treatments for back pain; originally reported as showing, at best, small to moderate benefits. Participants were randomised to receive 'best care' in general practice, the comparator treatment, or one of three manual and/or exercise treatments: 'best care' plus manipulation, exercise, or manipulation followed by exercise. We used established consensus thresholds for improvement in Roland-Morris disability questionnaire scores at three and twelve months to derive NNTs for improvements and for benefits (improvements gained+deteriorations prevented). Results At three months, NNT estimates ranged from 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 10.7) to 9.0 (5.0 to 45.5) for exercise, 5.0 (3.4 to 9.8) to 5.4 (3.8 to 9.9) for manipulation, and 3.3 (2.5 to 4.9) to 4.8 (3.5 to 7.8) for manipulation followed by exercise. Corresponding between-group mean differences in the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire were 1.6 (0.8 to 2.3), 1.4 (0.6 to 2.1), and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.6) points. Conclusion In contrast to small mean differences originally reported, NNTs were small and could be attractive to clinicians, patients, and purchasers. NNTs can aid the interpretation of results of trials using continuous outcomes. Where possible, these should be reported alongside mean differences. Challenges remain in calculating NNTs for some continuous outcomes

Feasibility, acceptability, and cost of tuberculosis testing by whole-blood interferon-gamma assay

BACKGROUND: The whole-blood interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) is recommended in some settings as an alternative to the tuberculin skin test (TST). Outcomes from field implementation of the IGRA for routine tuberculosis (TB) testing have not been reported. We evaluated feasibility, acceptability, and costs after 1.5 years of IGRA use in San Francisco under routine program conditions. METHODS: Patients seen at six community clinics serving homeless, immigrant, or injection-drug user (IDU) populations were routinely offered IGRA (Quantiferon-TB). Per guidelines, we excluded patients who were <17 years old, HIV-infected, immunocompromised, or pregnant. We reviewed medical records for IGRA results and completion of medical evaluation for TB, and at two clinics reviewed TB screening logs for instances of IGRA refusal or phlebotomy failure. RESULTS: Between November 1, 2003 and February 28, 2005, 4143 persons were evaluated by IGRA. 225(5%) specimens were not tested, and 89 (2%) were IGRA-indeterminate. Positive or negative IGRA results were available for 3829 (92%). Of 819 patients with positive IGRA results, 524 (64%) completed diagnostic evaluation within 30 days of their IGRA test date. Among 503 patients eligible for IGRA testing at two clinics, phlebotomy was refused by 33 (7%) and failed in 40 (8%). Including phlebotomy, laboratory, and personnel costs, IGRA use cost $33.67 per patient tested. CONCLUSION: IGRA implementation in a routine TB control program setting was feasible and acceptable among homeless, IDU, and immigrant patients in San Francisco, with results more frequently available than the historically described performance of TST. Laboratory-based diagnosis and surveillance for M. tuberculosis infection is now possible

Methodological criteria for the assessment of moderators in systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials : a consensus study

Background: Current methodological guidelines provide advice about the assessment of sub-group analysis within RCTs, but do not specify explicit criteria for assessment. Our objective was to provide researchers with a set of criteria that will facilitate the grading of evidence for moderators, in systematic reviews. Method: We developed a set of criteria from methodological manuscripts (n = 18) using snowballing technique, and electronic database searches. Criteria were reviewed by an international Delphi panel (n = 21), comprising authors who have published methodological papers in this area, and researchers who have been active in the study of sub-group analysis in RCTs. We used the Research ANd Development/University of California Los Angeles appropriateness method to assess consensus on the quantitative data. Free responses were coded for consensus and disagreement. In a subsequent round additional criteria were extracted from the Cochrane Reviewers’ Handbook, and the process was repeated. Results: The recommendations are that meta-analysts report both confirmatory and exploratory findings for subgroups analysis. Confirmatory findings must only come from studies in which a specific theory/evidence based apriori statement is made. Exploratory findings may be used to inform future/subsequent trials. However, for inclusion in the meta-analysis of moderators, the following additional criteria should be applied to each study: Baseline factors should be measured prior to randomisation, measurement of baseline factors should be of adequate reliability and validity, and a specific test of the interaction between baseline factors and interventions must be presented. Conclusions: There is consensus from a group of 21 international experts that methodological criteria to assess moderators within systematic reviews of RCTs is both timely and necessary. The consensus from the experts resulted in five criteria divided into two groups when synthesising evidence: confirmatory findings to support hypotheses about moderators and exploratory findings to inform future research. These recommendations are discussed in reference to previous recommendations for evaluating and reporting moderator studies

Multicolour correlative imaging using phosphor probes

Correlative light and electron microscopy exploits the advantages of optical methods, such as multicolour probes and their use in hydrated live biological samples, to locate functional units, which are then correlated with structural details that can be revealed by the superior resolution of electron microscopes. One difficulty is locating the area imaged by the electron beam in the much larger optical field of view. Multifunctional probes that can be imaged in both modalities and thus register the two images are required. Phosphor materials give cathodoluminescence (CL) optical emissions under electron excitation. Lanthanum phosphate containing thulium or terbium or europium emits narrow bands in the blue, green and red regions of the CL spectrum; they may be synthesised with very uniform-sized crystals in the 10- to 50-nm range. Such crystals can be imaged by CL in the electron microscope, at resolutions limited by the particle size, and with colour discrimination to identify different probes. These materials also give emissions in the optical microscope, by multiphoton excitation. They have been deposited on the surface of glioblastoma cells and imaged by CL. Gadolinium oxysulphide doped with terbium emits green photons by either ultraviolet or electron excitation. Sixty-nanometre crystals of this phosphor have been imaged in the atmospheric scanning electron microscope (JEOL ClairScope). This probe and microscope combination allow correlative imaging in hydrated samples. Phosphor probes should prove to be very useful in correlative light and electron microscopy, as fiducial markers to assist in image registration, and in high/super resolution imaging studies

Elective Open Suprarenal Aneurysm Repair in England from 2000 to 2010 an Observational Study of Hospital Episode Statistics

Background: Open surgery is widely used as a benchmark for the results of fenestrated endovascular repair of complex abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). However, the existing evidence stems from single-centre experiences, and may not be reproducible in wider practice. National outcomes provide valuable information regarding the safety of suprarenal aneurysm repair. Methods: Demographic and clinical data were extracted from English Hospital Episodes Statistics for patients undergoing elective suprarenal aneurysm repair from 1 April 2000 to 31 March 2010. Thirty-day mortality and five-year survival were analysed by logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards modeling. Results: 793 patients underwent surgery with 14% overall 30-day mortality, which did not improve over the study period. Independent predictors of 30-day mortality included age, renal disease and previous myocardial infarction. 5-year survival was independently reduced by age, renal disease, liver disease, chronic pulmonary disease, and known metastatic solid tumour. There was significant regional variation in both 30-day mortality and 5-year survival after risk-adjustment. Regional differences in outcome were eliminated in a sensitivity analysis for perioperative outcome, conducted by restricting analysis to survivors of the first 30 days after surgery. Conclusions: Elective suprarenal aneurysm repair was associated with considerable mortality and significant regional variation across England. These data provide a benchmark to assess the efficacy of complex endovascular repair of supra-renal aneurysms, though cautious interpretation is required due to the lack of information regarding aneurysm morphology. More detailed study is required, ideally through the mandatory submission of data to a national registry of suprarenal aneurysm repair