Methodological criteria for the assessment of moderators in systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials : a consensus study

Background: Current methodological guidelines provide advice about the assessment of sub-group analysis within RCTs, but do not specify explicit criteria for assessment. Our objective was to provide researchers with a set of criteria that will facilitate the grading of evidence for moderators, in systematic reviews. Method: We developed a set of criteria from methodological manuscripts (n = 18) using snowballing technique, and electronic database searches. Criteria were reviewed by an international Delphi panel (n = 21), comprising authors who have published methodological papers in this area, and researchers who have been active in the study of sub-group analysis in RCTs. We used the Research ANd Development/University of California Los Angeles appropriateness method to assess consensus on the quantitative data. Free responses were coded for consensus and disagreement. In a subsequent round additional criteria were extracted from the Cochrane Reviewers’ Handbook, and the process was repeated. Results: The recommendations are that meta-analysts report both confirmatory and exploratory findings for subgroups analysis. Confirmatory findings must only come from studies in which a specific theory/evidence based apriori statement is made. Exploratory findings may be used to inform future/subsequent trials. However, for inclusion in the meta-analysis of moderators, the following additional criteria should be applied to each study: Baseline factors should be measured prior to randomisation, measurement of baseline factors should be of adequate reliability and validity, and a specific test of the interaction between baseline factors and interventions must be presented. Conclusions: There is consensus from a group of 21 international experts that methodological criteria to assess moderators within systematic reviews of RCTs is both timely and necessary. The consensus from the experts resulted in five criteria divided into two groups when synthesising evidence: confirmatory findings to support hypotheses about moderators and exploratory findings to inform future research. These recommendations are discussed in reference to previous recommendations for evaluating and reporting moderator studies

Does the drug sensitivity of malaria parasites depend on their virulence?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chemotherapy can prompt the evolution of classical drug resistance, but selection can also favour other parasite traits that confer a survival advantage in the presence of drugs. The experiments reported here test the hypothesis that sub-optimal drug treatment of malaria parasites might generate survival and transmission advantages for virulent parasites.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two <it>Plasmodium chabaudi </it>lines, one derived from the other by serial passage, were used to establish avirulent and virulent infections in mice. After five days, infections were treated with various doses of pyrimethamine administered over 1 or 4 days. Virulence measures (weight and anaemia), parasite and gametocyte dynamics were followed until day 21.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All treatment regimes reduced parasite and gametocyte densities, but infections with the virulent line always produced more parasites and more gametocytes than infections with the avirulent line. Consistent with our hypothesis, drug treatment was disproportionately effective against the less virulent parasites. Treatment did not affect the relative transmission advantage of the virulent line. Neither of the lines contained known mutations conferring classical drug resistance.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Drug-sensitivity of malaria parasites can be virulence-dependent, with virulent parasites more likely to survive sub-optimal treatment. If this proves to be general for a variety of drugs and parasite species, selection imposed by sub-optimal drug treatment could result in the evolution of more aggressive malaria parasites.</p

Moderation in management research: What, why, when and how.

Many theories in management, psychology, and other disciplines rely on moderating variables: those which affect the strength or nature of the relationship between two other variables. Despite the near-ubiquitous nature of such effects, the methods for testing and interpreting them are not always well understood. This article introduces the concept of moderation and describes how moderator effects are tested and interpreted for a series of model types, beginning with straightforward two-way interactions with Normal outcomes, moving to three-way and curvilinear interactions, and then to models with non-Normal outcomes including binary logistic regression and Poisson regression. In particular, methods of interpreting and probing these latter model types, such as simple slope analysis and slope difference tests, are described. It then gives answers to twelve frequently asked questions about testing and interpreting moderator effects

Perceived Social Support Network and Achievement : Mediation by Motivational Beliefs and Moderation by Gender

Research has shown that perceived social support (PSS) (from parents and teachers) influences achievement. However, little is known about how this relationship operates. This study examines the multiple mediational effects of students’ motivational beliefs in relationship to the association between PSS and mathematics achievement. The sample included the African countries that participated in the TIMSS 2011 (Ghana, Botswana, South Africa, Morocco, and Tunisia). A bootstrap analysis indicated a unique pattern of the role of motivational beliefs in mediating the relationships between PSS and achievement. Moreover, gender was found to moderate the indirect effect in some countries. The findings indicate that total mediation effect of students’ motivational belief on the relationship between PSS and achievement is “culture-fair but not culture-free”Research has shown that perceived social support (PSS) (from parents and teachers) influences achievement. However, little is known about how this relationship operates. This study examines the multiple mediational effects of students’ motivational beliefs in relationship to the association between PSS and mathematics achievement. The sample included the African countries that participated in the TIMSS 2011 (Ghana, Botswana, South Africa, Morocco, and Tunisia). A bootstrap analysis indicated a unique pattern of the role of motivational beliefs in mediating the relationships between PSS and achievement. Moreover, gender was found to moderate the indirect effect in some countries. The findings indicate that total mediation effect of students’ motivational belief on the relationship between PSS and achievement is “culture-fair but not culture-free”.Peer reviewe

Early Adolescent Depressive Symptoms: Prediction from Clique Isolation, Loneliness, and Perceived Social Acceptance

This study examined whether clique isolation predicted an increase in depressive symptoms and whether this association was mediated by loneliness and perceived social acceptance in 310 children followed from age 11–14 years. Clique isolation was identified through social network analysis, whereas depressive symptoms, loneliness, and perceived social acceptance were assessed using self ratings. While accounting for initial levels of depressive symptoms, peer rejection, and friendlessness at age 11 years, a high probability of being isolated from cliques from age 11 to 13 years predicted depressive symptoms at age 14 years. The link between clique isolation and depressive symptoms was mediated by loneliness, but not by perceived social acceptance. No sex differences were found in the associations between clique isolation and depressive symptoms. These results suggest that clique isolation is a social risk factor for the escalation of depressive symptoms in early adolescence. Implications for research and prevention are discussed

The landscape of inherited and de novo copy number variants in a plasmodium falciparum genetic cross

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Copy number is a major source of genome variation with important evolutionary implications. Consequently, it is essential to determine copy number variant (CNV) behavior, distributions and frequencies across genomes to understand their origins in both evolutionary and generational time frames. We use comparative genomic hybridization (CGH) microarray and the resolution provided by a segregating population of cloned progeny lines of the malaria parasite, <it>Plasmodium falciparum</it>, to identify and analyze the inheritance of 170 genome-wide CNVs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We describe CNVs in progeny clones derived from both Mendelian (i.e. inherited) and non-Mendelian mechanisms. Forty-five CNVs were present in the parent lines and segregated in the progeny population. Furthermore, extensive variation that did not conform to strict Mendelian inheritance patterns was observed. 124 CNVs were called in one or more progeny but in neither parent: we observed CNVs in more than one progeny clone that were not identified in either parent, located more frequently in the telomeric-subtelomeric regions of chromosomes and singleton <it>de novo </it>CNVs distributed evenly throughout the genome. Linkage analysis of CNVs revealed dynamic copy number fluctuations and suggested mechanisms that could have generated them. Five of 12 previously identified expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) hotspots coincide with CNVs, demonstrating the potential for broad influence of CNV on the transcriptional program and phenotypic variation.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>CNVs are a significant source of segregating and <it>de novo </it>genome variation involving hundreds of genes. Examination of progeny genome segments provides a framework to assess the extent and possible origins of CNVs. This segregating genetic system reveals the breadth, distribution and dynamics of CNVs in a surprisingly plastic parasite genome, providing a new perspective on the sources of diversity in parasite populations.</p

Blood Parasites in Owls with Conservation Implications for the Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis)

The three subspecies of Spotted Owl (Northern, Strix occidentalis caurina; California, S. o. occidentalis; and Mexican, S. o. lucida) are all threatened by habitat loss and range expansion of the Barred Owl (S. varia). An unaddressed threat is whether Barred Owls could be a source of novel strains of disease such as avian malaria (Plasmodium spp.) or other blood parasites potentially harmful for Spotted Owls. Although Barred Owls commonly harbor Plasmodium infections, these parasites have not been documented in the Spotted Owl. We screened 111 Spotted Owls, 44 Barred Owls, and 387 owls of nine other species for haemosporidian parasites (Leucocytozoon, Plasmodium, and Haemoproteus spp.). California Spotted Owls had the greatest number of simultaneous multi-species infections (44%). Additionally, sequencing results revealed that the Northern and California Spotted Owl subspecies together had the highest number of Leucocytozoon parasite lineages (n = 17) and unique lineages (n = 12). This high level of sequence diversity is significant because only one Leucocytozoon species (L. danilewskyi) has been accepted as valid among all owls, suggesting that L. danilewskyi is a cryptic species. Furthermore, a Plasmodium parasite was documented in a Northern Spotted Owl for the first time. West Coast Barred Owls had a lower prevalence of infection (15%) when compared to sympatric Spotted Owls (S. o. caurina 52%, S. o. occidentalis 79%) and Barred Owls from the historic range (61%). Consequently, Barred Owls on the West Coast may have a competitive advantage over the potentially immune compromised Spotted Owls

Worldwide comparison of survival from childhood leukaemia for 1995–2009, by subtype, age, and sex (CONCORD-2): a population-based study of individual data for 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries

Background Global inequalities in access to health care are reflected in differences in cancer survival. The CONCORD programme was designed to assess worldwide differences and trends in population-based cancer survival. In this population-based study, we aimed to estimate survival inequalities globally for several subtypes of childhood leukaemia. Methods Cancer registries participating in CONCORD were asked to submit tumour registrations for all children aged 0-14 years who were diagnosed with leukaemia between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2009, and followed up until Dec 31, 2009. Haematological malignancies were defined by morphology codes in the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third revision. We excluded data from registries from which the data were judged to be less reliable, or included only lymphomas, and data from countries in which data for fewer than ten children were available for analysis. We also excluded records because of a missing date of birth, diagnosis, or last known vital status. We estimated 5-year net survival (ie, the probability of surviving at least 5 years after diagnosis, after controlling for deaths from other causes [background mortality]) for children by calendar period of diagnosis (1995-99, 2000-04, and 2005-09), sex, and age at diagnosis (< 1, 1-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years, inclusive) using appropriate life tables. We estimated age-standardised net survival for international comparison of survival trends for precursor-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). Findings We analysed data from 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries. During 1995-99, 5-year agestandardised net survival for all lymphoid leukaemias combined ranged from 10.6% (95% CI 3.1-18.2) in the Chinese registries to 86.8% (81.6-92.0) in Austria. International differences in 5-year survival for childhood leukaemia were still large as recently as 2005-09, when age-standardised survival for lymphoid leukaemias ranged from 52.4% (95% CI 42.8-61.9) in Cali, Colombia, to 91.6% (89.5-93.6) in the German registries, and for AML ranged from 33.3% (18.9-47.7) in Bulgaria to 78.2% (72.0-84.3) in German registries. Survival from precursor-cell ALL was very close to that of all lymphoid leukaemias combined, with similar variation. In most countries, survival from AML improved more than survival from ALL between 2000-04 and 2005-09. Survival for each type of leukaemia varied markedly with age: survival was highest for children aged 1-4 and 5-9 years, and lowest for infants (younger than 1 year). There was no systematic difference in survival between boys and girls. Interpretation Global inequalities in survival from childhood leukaemia have narrowed with time but remain very wide for both ALL and AML. These results provide useful information for health policy makers on the effectiveness of health-care systems and for cancer policy makers to reduce inequalities in childhood survival

20-Year Risks of Breast-Cancer Recurrence after Stopping Endocrine Therapy at 5 Years

The administration of endocrine therapy for 5 years substantially reduces recurrence rates during and after treatment in women with early-stage, estrogen-receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. Extending such therapy beyond 5 years offers further protection but has additional side effects. Obtaining data on the absolute risk of subsequent distant recurrence if therapy stops at 5 years could help determine whether to extend treatment