Communicating Information on Eruptions and Their Impacts from the Earliest Times Until the Late Twentieth Century

Volcanoes hold a fascination for human beings and, before they were recorded by literate observers, eruptions were portrayed in art, were recalled in legends and became incorporated into religious practices: being viewed as agents of punishment, bounty or intimidation depending upon their state of activity and the culture involved. In the Middle East the earliest depiction of an eruption is a wall painting dating from the Neolithic at Çatal Hüyük and the earliest record dates from the third millennium BCE. Knowledge of volcanoes increased over time. In some parts of the world knowledge of eruptions was passed down by oral transmission, but as far as written records were concerned, in the first century CE only 9 volcanoes in the Mediterranean region were recognised, together with Mount Cameroon in West Africa. In the next 1000 years the list grew by 17, some 14 of these volcanoes being in Japan. The first recorded eruptions in Indonesia occurred in 1000 and 1006, and volcanoes in newly settled Iceland increased the number to just 48 in 1380 CE. After this the list continued to increase, with important regions such as New Zealand and Hawaii only being added in the past 200 years. Only from 1900 did the rate of growth decline significantly (Simkin et al. 1981: 23; Simkin, 1993 Siebert et al. 2011; Simkin, 1993), but it is sobering to recall that in the twentieth century major eruptions have occurred from volcanoes that were considered inactive or extinct examples including: Mount Lamington - Papua New Guinea, 1951; Mount Arenal - Costa Rica, 1968 and Nyos - Cameroon, 1986. Although there are instances where the human impact of historical eruptions have been compiled - with examples including the 1883 eruption of Krakatau (Simkin and Fiske (1983) and 1943 -1952 eruption of Parícutin (Luhr and Simkin, 1993) - these are exceptions and there remains a significant gap in knowledge about both the short and long-term effects on societies of major eruptions which occurred before the 1980s. Following a broad review the chapter provides a discussion of the ways in which information has been collected, compiled and disseminated from the earliest times until the 1980s in two case study areas: the Azores Islands (Portugal) and southern Italy. In Italy information on eruptions stretches back to prehistoric times and has become progressively better known over more than 2,000 years of written history, yet even here there remain significant gaps in the record even for events that took place between 1900 and 1990. In contrast, located in the middle of the Atlantic, the Azores have been isolated for much of their history and illustrate the difficulties involved in using indigenous sources to compile, not only assessments of impact, but also at a more basic level a complete list of historical events with accurate dates

A deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system

The Amazon rainforest has been proposed as a tipping element of the earth system, with the possibility of a dieback of the entire ecosystem due to deforestation only of parts of the rainforest. Possible physical mechanisms behind such a transition are still subject to ongoing debates. Here, we use a specifically designed model to analyse the nonlinear couplings between the Amazon rainforest and the atmospheric moisture transport from the Atlantic to the South American continent. These couplings are associated with a westward cascade of precipitation and evapotranspiration across the Amazon. We investigate impacts of deforestation on the South American monsoonal circulation with particular focus on a previously neglected positive feedback related to condensational latent heating over the rainforest, which strongly enhances atmospheric moisture inflow from the Atlantic. Our results indicate the existence of a tipping point. In our model setup, crossing the tipping point causes precipitation reductions of up to 40% in non-deforested parts of the western Amazon and regions further downstream. The responsible mechanism is the breakdown of the aforementioned feedback, which occurs when deforestation reduces transpiration to a point where the available atmospheric moisture does not suffice anymore to release the latent heat needed to maintain the feedback

Short-term response and recovery of bluebells (Hyacinthoides non-scripta) after rooting by wild boar (Sus scrofa)

Species reintroduction programmes should include consideration of potential impacts on key species in the recipient community. Wild boar (Sus scrofa) have been reintroduced into Britain after a 700-year absence. There is an urgent need to understand how this ecosystem engineer will affect plant communities in the habitats that it invades. We investigated the impact of rooting by wild boar on bluebells (Hyacinthoides non-scripta), a species that is highly valued for its impressive floral displays and is an important and legally protected component of the UK forest flora. We monitored bluebell performance over three growing seasons in woodland habitats that are routinely rooted by boar in southern England. H. non-scripta cover and reproductive performance were monitored in small-scale experimental exclosures to exclude boar, compared to open control plots, set up on areas that either had or had not been previously rooted. Immediate effects were that rooting significantly reduced the percentage cover and density of H. non-scripta plants, by up to 95 and 60 %, respectively, and also adversely affected the number of flowering stems. However, there was evidence that cessation of rooting brought about by excluding the boar enabled substantial recovery in percentage cover and the density of flowering stems within 2 years. A positive effect of rooting on germination may have assisted this recovery. Thus, the impact of wild boar rooting on bluebell populations is locally severe, but there is potential for rapid recovery if plants are protected. Long-term effects of sustained or frequently repeated rooting still need to be investigated