Observed intra-cluster correlation coefficients in a cluster survey sample of patient encounters in general practice in Australia

BACKGROUND: Cluster sample study designs are cost effective, however cluster samples violate the simple random sample assumption of independence of observations. Failure to account for the intra-cluster correlation of observations when sampling through clusters may lead to an under-powered study. Researchers therefore need estimates of intra-cluster correlation for a range of outcomes to calculate sample size. We report intra-cluster correlation coefficients observed within a large-scale cross-sectional study of general practice in Australia, where the general practitioner (GP) was the primary sampling unit and the patient encounter was the unit of inference. METHODS: Each year the Bettering the Evaluation and Care of Health (BEACH) study recruits a random sample of approximately 1,000 GPs across Australia. Each GP completes details of 100 consecutive patient encounters. Intra-cluster correlation coefficients were estimated for patient demographics, morbidity managed and treatments received. Intra-cluster correlation coefficients were estimated for descriptive outcomes and for associations between outcomes and predictors and were compared across two independent samples of GPs drawn three years apart. RESULTS: Between April 1999 and March 2000, a random sample of 1,047 Australian general practitioners recorded details of 104,700 patient encounters. Intra-cluster correlation coefficients for patient demographics ranged from 0.055 for patient sex to 0.451 for language spoken at home. Intra-cluster correlations for morbidity variables ranged from 0.005 for the management of eye problems to 0.059 for management of psychological problems. Intra-cluster correlation for the association between two variables was smaller than the descriptive intra-cluster correlation of each variable. When compared with the April 2002 to March 2003 sample (1,008 GPs) the estimated intra-cluster correlation coefficients were found to be consistent across samples. CONCLUSIONS: The demonstrated precision and reliability of the estimated intra-cluster correlations indicate that these coefficients will be useful for calculating sample sizes in future general practice surveys that use the GP as the primary sampling unit

First cosmological results using Type Ia supernovae from the Dark Energy Survey: Measurement of the Hubble constant

We present an improved measurement of the Hubble constant (H0) using the ‘inverse distance ladder’ method, which adds the information from 207 Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) at redshift 0.018 < z < 0.85 to existing distance measurements of 122 low-redshift (z < 0.07) SNe Ia (Low-z) and measurements of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAOs). Whereas traditional measurements of H0 with SNe Ia use a distance ladder of parallax and Cepheid variable stars, the inverse distance ladder relies on absolute distance measurements from the BAOs to calibrate the intrinsic magnitude of the SNe Ia. We find H0 = 67.8 ± 1.3 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹ (statistical and systematic uncertainties, 68 per cent confidence). Our measurement makes minimal assumptions about the underlying cosmological model, and our analysis was blinded to reduce confirmation bias. We examine possible systematic uncertainties and all are below the statistical uncertainties. Our H₀ value is consistent with estimates derived from the Cosmic Microwave Background assuming a ΛCDM universe

First cosmology results using Type Ia supernova from the Dark Energy Survey: simulations to correct supernova distance biases

We describe catalog-level simulations of Type Ia supernova (SN~Ia) light curves in the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program (DES-SN), and in low-redshift samples from the Center for Astrophysics (CfA) and the Carnegie Supernova Project (CSP). These simulations are used to model biases from selection effects and light curve analysis, and to determine bias corrections for SN~Ia distance moduli that are used to measure cosmological parameters. To generate realistic light curves, the simulation uses a detailed SN~Ia model, incorporates information from observations (PSF, sky noise, zero point), and uses summary information (e.g., detection efficiency vs. signal to noise ratio) based on 10,000 fake SN light curves whose fluxes were overlaid on images and processed with our analysis pipelines. The quality of the simulation is illustrated by predicting distributions observed in the data. Averaging within redshift bins, we find distance modulus biases up to 0.05~mag over the redshift ranges of the low-z and DES-SN samples. For individual events, particularly those with extreme red or blue color, distance biases can reach 0.4~mag. Therefore, accurately determining bias corrections is critical for precision measurements of cosmological parameters. Files used to make these corrections are available at this https URL

First Cosmology Results Using SNe Ia from the Dark Energy Survey: Analysis, Systematic Uncertainties, and Validation

We present the analysis underpinning the measurement of cosmological parameters from 207 spectroscopically classified SNe Ia from the first 3 years of the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program (DES-SN), spanning a redshift range of 0.017 < z < 0.849. We combine the DES-SN sample with an external sample of 122 low-redshift (z < 0.1) SNe Ia, resulting in a "DES-SN3YR" sample of 329 SNe Ia. Our cosmological analyses are blinded: after combining our DES-SN3YR distances with constraints from the Cosmic Microwave Background, our uncertainties in the measurement of the dark energy equation-of-state parameter, w, are 0.042 (stat) and 0.059 (stat+syst) at 68% confidence. We provide a detailed systematic uncertainty budget, which has nearly equal contributions from photometric calibration, astrophysical bias corrections, and instrumental bias corrections. We also include several new sources of systematic uncertainty. While our sample is less than one-third the size of the Pantheon sample, our constraints on w are only larger by 1.4×, showing the impact of the DES-SN Ia light-curve quality. We find that the traditional stretch and color standardization parameters of the DES-SNe Ia are in agreement with earlier SN Ia samples such as Pan-STARRS1 and the Supernova Legacy Survey. However, we find smaller intrinsic scatter about the Hubble diagram (0.077 mag). Interestingly, we find no evidence for a Hubble residual step (0.007 ± 0.018 mag) as a function of host-galaxy mass for the DES subset, in 2.4σ tension with previous measurements. We also present novel validation methods of our sample using simulated SNe Ia inserted in DECam images and using large catalog-level simulations to test for biases in our analysis pipelines

The Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program results: Type Ia Supernova brightness correlates with host galaxy dust

Cosmological analyses with type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) often assume a single empirical relation between color and luminosity ($\beta$) and do not account for varying host-galaxy dust properties. However, from studies of dust in large samples of galaxies, it is known that dust attenuation can vary significantly. Here we take advantage of state-of-the-art modeling of galaxy properties to characterize dust parameters (dust attenuation $A_V$, and a parameter describing the dust law slope $R_V$) for the Dark Energy Survey (DES) SN Ia host galaxies using the publicly available \texttt{BAGPIPES} code. Utilizing optical and infrared data of the hosts alone, we find three key aspects of host dust that impact SN Ia cosmology: 1) there exists a large range ($\sim1-6$) of host $R_V$ 2) high stellar mass hosts have $R_V$ on average $\sim0.7$ lower than that of low-mass hosts 3) there is a significant ($>3\sigma$) correlation between the Hubble diagram residuals of red SNe Ia that when corrected for reduces scatter by $\sim13\%$ and the significance of the ``mass step'' to $\sim1\sigma$. These represent independent confirmations of recent predictions based on dust that attempted to explain the puzzling ``mass step'' and intrinsic scatter ($\sigma_{\rm int}$) in SN Ia analyses. We also find that red-sequence galaxies have both lower and more peaked dust law slope distributions on average in comparison to non red-sequence galaxies. We find that the SN Ia $\beta$ and $\sigma_{\rm int}$ both differ by $>3\sigma$ when determined separately for red-sequence galaxy and all other galaxy hosts. The agreement between fitted host-$R_V$ and SN Ia $\beta$ \& $\sigma_{\rm int}$ suggests that host dust properties play a major role in SN Ia color-luminosity standardization and supports the claim that SN Ia intrinsic scatter is driven by $R_V$ variation.Comment: 22 pages. Submitted to MNRA

The first Hubble diagram and cosmological constraints using superluminous supernovae

We present the first Hubble diagram of superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) out to a redshift of two, together with constraints on the matter density, ωM, and the dark energy equation-of-state parameter, w(p/ρ). We build a sample of 20 cosmologically useful SLSNe I based on light curve and spectroscopy quality cuts. We confirm the robustness of the peak-decline SLSN I standardization relation with a larger data set and improved fitting techniques than previous works. We then solve the SLSN model based on the above standardization via minimization of the χ2 computed from a covariance matrix that includes statistical and systematic uncertainties. For a spatially flat Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmological model, we find $\Omega{\rm M}=0.38^{+0.24}_{-0.19}$, with an rms of 0.27 mag for the residuals of the distance moduli. For a w0waCDM cosmological model, the addition of SLSNe I to a 'baseline' measurement consisting of Planck temperature together with Type Ia supernovae, results in a small improvement in the constraints of w0 and wa of 4 per cent. We present simulations of future surveys with 868 and 492 SLSNe I (depending on the configuration used) and show that such a sample can deliver cosmological constraints in a flat ΛCDM model with the same precision (considering only statistical uncertainties) as current surveys that use Type Ia supernovae, while providing a factor of 2-3 improvement in the precision of the constraints on the time variation of dark energy, w0 and wa. This paper represents the proof of concept for superluminous supernova cosmology, and demonstrates they can provide an independent test of cosmology in the high-redshift (z &gt; 1) universe

First cosmological results using Type Ia supernovae from the Dark Energy Survey: Measurement of the Hubble constant

We present an improved measurement of the Hubble constant (H0) using the 'inverse distance ladder' method, which adds the information from 207 Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) at redshift 0.01

First cosmology results using Type Ia supernova from the Dark Energy Survey: Simulations to correct supernova distance biases

We describe catalogue-level simulations of Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) light curves in the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program (DES-SN) and in low-redshift samples from the Center for Astrophysics (CfA) and the Carnegie Supernova Project (CSP). These simulations are used to model biases from selection effects and light-curve analysis and to determine bias corrections for SN Ia distance moduli that are used to measure cosmological parameters. To generate realistic light curves, the simulation uses a detailed SN Ia model, incorporates information from observations (point spread function, sky noise, zero-point), and uses summary information (e.g. detection efficiency versus signal-to-noise ratio) based on 10 000 fake SN light curves whose fluxes were overlaid on images and processed with our analysis pipelines. The quality of the simulation is illustrated by predicting distributions observed in the data. Averaging within redshift bins, we find distance modulus biases up to 0.05 mag over the redshift ranges of the low-z and DES-SN samples. For individual events, particularly those with extreme red or blue colour, distance biases can reach 0.4 mag. Therefore, accurately determining bias corrections is critical for precision measurements of cosmological parameters. Files used to make these corrections are available at https://des.ncsa.illinois.edu/releases/sn

First Cosmology Results Using SNe Ia from the Dark Energy Survey: Analysis, Systematic Uncertainties, and Validation

We present the analysis underpinning the measurement of cosmological parameters from 207 spectroscopically classified SNe Ia from the first 3 years of the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program (DES-SN), spanning a redshift range of 0.017 < z < 0.849. We combine the DES-SN sample with an external sample of 122 low-redshift (z < 0.1) SNe Ia, resulting in a "DES-SN3YR" sample of 329 SNe Ia. Our cosmological analyses are blinded: after combining our DES-SN3YR distances with constraints from the Cosmic Microwave Background, our uncertainties in the measurement of the dark energy equation-of-state parameter, w, are 0.042 (stat) and 0.059 (stat+syst) at 68% confidence. We provide a detailed systematic uncertainty budget, which has nearly equal contributions from photometric calibration, astrophysical bias corrections, and instrumental bias corrections. We also include several new sources of systematic uncertainty. While our sample is less than one-third the size of the Pantheon sample, our constraints on w are only larger by 1.4×, showing the impact of the DES-SN Ia light-curve quality. We find that the traditional stretch and color standardization parameters of the DES-SNe Ia are in agreement with earlier SN Ia samples such as Pan-STARRS1 and the Supernova Legacy Survey. However, we find smaller intrinsic scatter about the Hubble diagram (0.077 mag). Interestingly, we find no evidence for a Hubble residual step (0.007 ± 0.018 mag) as a function of host-galaxy mass for the DES subset, in 2.4σ tension with previous measurements. We also present novel validation methods of our sample using simulated SNe Ia inserted in DECam images and using large catalog-level simulations to test for biases in our analysis pipelines