Standardizing effect size from linear regression models with log-transformed variables for meta-analysis

Background: Meta-analysis is very useful to summarize the effect of a treatment or a risk factor for a given disease. Often studies report results based on log-transformed variables in order to achieve the principal assumptions of a linear regression model. If this is the case for some, but not all studies, the effects need to be homogenized. Methods: We derived a set of formulae to transform absolute changes into relative ones, and vice versa, to allow including all results in a meta-analysis. We applied our procedure to all possible combinations of log-transformed independent or dependent variables. We also evaluated it in a simulation based on two variables either normally or asymmetrically distributed. Results: In all the scenarios, and based on different change criteria, the effect size estimated by the derived set of formulae was equivalent to the real effect size. To avoid biased estimates of the effect, this procedure should be used with caution in the case of independent variables with asymmetric distributions that significantly differ from the normal distribution. We illustrate an application of this procedure by an application to a meta-analysis on the potential effects on neurodevelopment in children exposed to arsenic and manganese. Conclusions: The procedure proposed has been shown to be valid and capable of expressing the effect size of a linear regression model based on different change criteria in the variables. Homogenizing the results from different studies beforehand allows them to be combined in a meta-analysis, independently of whether the transformations had been performed on the dependent and/or independent variables

Imaging in population science: cardiovascular magnetic resonance in 100,000 participants of UK Biobank - rationale, challenges and approaches

PMCID: PMC3668194SEP was directly funded by the National Institute for Health Research Cardiovascular Biomedical Research Unit at Barts. SN acknowledges support from the Oxford NIHR Biomedical Research Centre and from the Oxford British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence. SP and PL are funded by a BHF Senior Clinical Research fellowship. RC is supported by a BHF Research Chair and acknowledges the support of the Oxford BHF Centre for Research Excellence and the MRC and Wellcome Trust. PMM gratefully acknowledges training fellowships supporting his laboratory from the Wellcome Trust, GlaxoSmithKline and the Medical Research Council

Mathematical model insights into arsenic detoxification

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Arsenic in drinking water, a major health hazard to millions of people in South and East Asia and in other parts of the world, is ingested primarily as trivalent inorganic arsenic (iAs), which then undergoes hepatic methylation to methylarsonic acid (MMAs) and a second methylation to dimethylarsinic acid (DMAs). Although MMAs and DMAs are also known to be toxic, DMAs is more easily excreted in the urine and therefore methylation has generally been considered a detoxification pathway. A collaborative modeling project between epidemiologists, biologists, and mathematicians has the purpose of explaining existing data on methylation in human studies in Bangladesh and also testing, by mathematical modeling, effects of nutritional supplements that could increase As methylation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We develop a whole body mathematical model of arsenic metabolism including arsenic absorption, storage, methylation, and excretion. The parameters for arsenic methylation in the liver were taken from the biochemical literature. The transport parameters between compartments are largely unknown, so we adjust them so that the model accurately predicts the urine excretion rates of time for the iAs, MMAs, and DMAs in single dose experiments on human subjects.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We test the model by showing that, with no changes in parameters, it predicts accurately the time courses of urinary excretion in mutiple dose experiments conducted on human subjects. Our main purpose is to use the model to study and interpret the data on the effects of folate supplementation on arsenic methylation and excretion in clinical trials in Bangladesh. Folate supplementation of folate-deficient individuals resulted in a 14% decrease in arsenicals in the blood. This is confirmed by the model and the model predicts that arsenicals in the liver will decrease by 19% and arsenicals in other body stores by 26% in these same individuals. In addition, the model predicts that arsenic methyltransferase has been upregulated by a factor of two in this population. Finally, we also show that a modification of the model gives excellent fits to the data on arsenic metabolism in human cultured hepatocytes.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The analysis of the Bangladesh data using the model suggests that folate supplementation may be more effective at reducing whole body arsenic than previously expected. There is almost no data on the upregulation of arsenic methyltransferase in populations chronically exposed to arsenic. Our model predicts upregulation by a factor of two in the Bangladesh population studied. This prediction should be verified since it could have important public health consequences both for treatment strategies and for setting appropriate limits on arsenic in drinking water. Our model has compartments for the binding of arsenicals to proteins inside of cells and we show that these comparments are necessary to obtain good fits to data. Protein-binding of arsenicals should be explored in future biochemical studies.</p

Age-Related Comparisons of Evolution of the Inflammatory Response After Intracerebral Hemorrhage in Rats

In the hours to days after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), there is an inflammatory response within the brain characterized by the infiltration of peripheral neutrophils and macrophages and the activation of brain-resident microglia and astrocytes. Despite the strong correlation of aging and ICH incidence, and increasing information about cellular responses, little is known about the temporal- and age-related molecular responses of the brain after ICH. Here, we monitored a panel of 27 genes at 6 h and 1, 3, and 7 days after ICH was induced by injecting collagenase into the striatum of young adult and aged rats. Several molecules (CR3, TLR2, TLR4, IL-1β, TNFα, iNOS, IL-6) were selected to reflect the classical activation of innate immune cells (macrophages, microglia) and the potential to exacerbate inflammation and damage brain cells. Most of the others are associated with the resolution of innate inflammation, alternative pathways of macrophage/microglial activation, and the repair phase after acute injury (TGFβ, IL-1ra, IL-1r2, IL-4, IL-13, IL-4Rα, IL-13Rα1, IL-13Rα2, MRC1, ARG1, CD163, CCL22). In young animals, the up-regulation of 26 in 27 genes (not IL-4) was detected within the first week. Differences in timing or levels between young and aged animals were detected for 18 of 27 genes examined (TLR2, GFAP, IL-1β, IL-1ra, IL-1r2, iNOS, IL-6, TGFβ, MMP9, MMP12, IL-13, IL-4Rα, IL-13Rα1, IL-13Rα2, MRC1, ARG1, CD163, CCL22), with a generally less pronounced or delayed inflammatory response in the aged animals. Importantly, within this complex response to experimental ICH, the induction of pro-inflammatory, potentially harmful mediators often coincided with resolving and beneficial molecules

Long-term consequences of arsenic poisoning during infancy due to contaminated milk powder

Arsenic toxicity is a global health problem affecting many millions of people. The main source of exposure is drinking water contaminated by natural geological sources. Current risk assessment is based on the recognized carcinogenicity of arsenic, but neurotoxic risks have been overlooked. In 1955, an outbreak of arsenic poisoning occurred among Japanese infants, with more than 100 deaths. The source was contaminated milk powder produced by the Morinaga company. Detailed accounts of the Morinaga dried milk poisoning were published in Japanese only, and an overview of this poisoning incident and its long-term consequences is therefore presented. From analyses available, the arsenic concentration in milk made from the Morinaga milk powder is calculated to be about 4–7 mg/L, corresponding to daily doses slightly above 500 μg/kg body weight. Lower exposures would result from using diluted milk. Clinical poisoning cases occurred after a few weeks of exposure, with a total dose of about 60 mg. This experience provides clear-cut evidence for hazard assessment of the developmental neurotoxicity. At the present time, more than 600 surviving victims, now in their 50s, have been reported to suffer from severe sequelae, such as mental retardation, neurological diseases, and other disabilities. Along with more recent epidemiological studies of children with environmental arsenic exposures, the data amply demonstrate the need to consider neurotoxicity as a key concern in risk assessment of inorganic arsenic exposure

‘The only game in town?’: football match-fixing in Greece

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12117-014-9239-3Football match-fixing in Greece has a relatively long history, however, from the late 1990s it has been considered as a serious problem for the sport in the country. Despite the history of the phenomenon in the country, Greece has only relatively recently been identified as one of the hotspots for football match-fixing on an international level. Following the recent scandal exposure of fixed matches in Greece in 2011, also known as Koriopolis (a pun name on the Italian scandal Calciopolis and the Greek word ‘korios’ or phone-tap), detailed information about numerous matches played in the 2008/09, 2009/10 and 2010/11 seasons that attracted UEFA’s attention were brought into the public eye. Soon after, legal action was taken against individuals involved in the process, with a number of club officials facing lifelong bans from any footballrelated activity, and football clubs either relegated or excluded from European competitions and the Super League itself for their involvement in the scandal. In May 2013, the number of people facing charges exceeded 200, with some of them having already been imprisoned for their involvement in the scandal. Following the aforementioned scandal exposure, a vast amount of information regarding football match-fixing was made available to the public. The aim of the current article is to provide an account of the social organisation of football match-fixing in Greece. Our account is based on three main sources of data: the telephone conversations that were the result of wiretapping by the National Intelligence Agency in relation to the latest football match-fixing scandal (of 2011), published media sources, and interviews with informed actors from the realm of Greek football

Low-level environmental lead exposure in childhood and adult intellectual function: a follow-up study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Early life lead exposure might be a risk factor for neurocognitive impairment in adulthood.</p> <p>Objectives</p> <p>We sought to assess the relationship between early life environmental lead exposure and intellectual function in adulthood. We also attempted to identify which time period blood-lead concentrations are most predictive of adult outcome.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We recruited adults in the Boston area who had participated as newborns and young children in a prospective cohort study that examined the relationship between lead exposure and childhood intellectual function. IQ was measured using the Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence (WASI). The association between lead concentrations and IQ scores was examined using linear regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Forty-three adults participated in neuropsychological testing. Childhood blood-lead concentration (mean of the blood-lead concentrations at ages 4 and 10 years) had the strongest relationship with Full-Scale IQ (β = -1.89 ± 0.70, p = 0.01). Full-scale IQ was also significantly related to blood-lead concentration at age 6 months (β = -1.66 ± 0.75, p = 0.03), 4 years (β = -0.90 ± 0.41, p = 0.03) and 10 years (β = -1.95 ± 0.80, p = 0.02). Adjusting for maternal IQ altered the significance of the regression coefficient.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our study suggests that lead exposure in childhood predicts intellectual functioning in young adulthood. Our results also suggest that school-age lead exposure may represent a period of increased susceptibility. Given the small sample size, however, the potentially confounding effects of maternal IQ cannot be excluded and should be evaluated in a larger study.</p