Theorems on existence and global dynamics for the Einstein equations

This article is a guide to theorems on existence and global dynamics of solutions of the Einstein equations. It draws attention to open questions in the field. The local-in-time Cauchy problem, which is relatively well understood, is surveyed. Global results for solutions with various types of symmetry are discussed. A selection of results from Newtonian theory and special relativity that offer useful comparisons is presented. Treatments of global results in the case of small data and results on constructing spacetimes with prescribed singularity structure or late-time asymptotics are given. A conjectural picture of the asymptotic behaviour of general cosmological solutions of the Einstein equations is built up. Some miscellaneous topics connected with the main theme are collected in a separate section.Comment: Submitted to Living Reviews in Relativity, major update of Living Rev. Rel. 5 (2002)

Overview SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic as January-February 2022: Likely Cometary Origin, Global Spread, Prospects for Future Vaccine Efficacy

Copyright © The Athors 2022. As the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is nearing its eventual end we focus on what we believe are two key omissions from the mainstream scientific literature and which have significant implications for how mankind manages the next global pandemic. We therefore review data, observations, analyses and conclusions from our series of papers published through 2020 and 2021 on its likely cometary origin and global spread. We also revisit our long held understanding of the superior effectiveness of intra-nasal vaccines against respiratory tract pathogens that involve induction of dimeric secretory IgA antibodies. While these two oversights seem disparate, together they provide us with new insights into our collective awareness of how we might view and address the next global pandemic. We begin with our hypothesis of the likely cometary origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus via a bolide strike in the stratosphere on the night of October 11 2019 on the 40o N line over Jilin in NE China. Further global spread most likely occurred via prevailing wind systems transporting both the pristine cometary virus followed by continuing strikes from the same primary source as well as prior human-passaged virus transmitted by person to person spread and through contaminated dust in global wind systems. We also include a discussion of our prior work on data relating to vaccine protective efficacy. Finally we review the totality of evidence concerning the likely origin and global spread of the predominant variants of the virus ‘Omicron’ (+Delta mix?) from early to mid-December 2021 and extending into the first week January 2022. We describe the striking data showing the large numbers of infectious cases per day and outline the scale of what appears to be a global pandemic phenomenon, the causes of which are unclear and not completely understood. Firstly, these essentially simultaneous and sudden global-wide epidemic COVID-19 out breaks, appear to be largely correlated with events external to the Earth, probably causing globally correlated precipitation events. They appear related broadly to “Space Weather” events that render the Earth vulnerable to cosmic pandemic pathogen attack particularly during times of the minima of the Sunspot Solar Cycle which we are now currently passing through. Secondly, we argue that these sudden global-wide epidemic outbreaks of COVID-19 are specifically largely influenced by global wind transport and deposition mechanisms, the physics of which we need to further explore and comprehend. We conclude on an optimistic note for mankind. Given our prior knowledge of the effectiveness against respiratory tract pathogens of mucosal immunity involving induction of dimeric secretory IgA antibodies, we consider that the recently published intra-nasal vaccine data from laboratories based at the University of California, San Francisco and, independently at Yale University. These latter studies hold out great promise for the future development of both pan-specific and specific immunity against future pandemics caused by suddenly emergent respiratory pathogens, whether viral, bacterial or fungal

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty

Social inequalities in self-rated health by age: Cross-sectional study of 22 457 middle-aged men and women

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We investigate the association between occupational social class and self-rated health (SRH) at different ages in men and women.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cross sectional population study of 22 457 men and women aged 39–79 years living in the general community in Norfolk, United Kingdom, recruited using general practice age-sex registers in 1993–1997. The relationship between self-rated health and social class was examined using logistic regression, with a poor or moderate rating as the outcome.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of poor or moderate (lower) self-rated health increased with increasing age in both men and women. There was a strong social class gradient: in manual classes, men and women under 50 years of age had a prevalence of lower self-rated health similar to that seen in men and women in non-manual social classes over 70 years old. Even after adjustment for age, educational status, and lifestyle factors (body mass index (BMI), smoking, physical activity and alcohol consumption) there was still strong evidence of a social gradient in self-rated health, with unskilled men and women approximately twice as likely to report lower self-rated health as professionals (OR_men= 2.44 (95%CI 1.69, 3.50); OR_women= 1.97 (95%CI 1.45, 2.68).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There was a strong gradient of decreased SRH with age in both men and women. We found a strong cross-sectional association between SRH and social class, which was independent of education and major health related behaviors. The social class differential in SRH was similar with age. Prospective studies to confirm this association should explore social and emotional as well as physical pathways to inequalities in self reported health.</p

Spatial Geographic Mosaic in an Aquatic Predator-Prey Network

The geographic mosaic theory of coevolution predicts 1) spatial variation in predatory structures as well as prey defensive traits, and 2) trait matching in some areas and trait mismatching in others mediated by gene flow. We examined gene flow and documented spatial variation in crushing resistance in the freshwater snails Mexipyrgus churinceanus, Mexithauma quadripaludium, Nymphophilus minckleyi, and its relationship to the relative frequency of the crushing morphotype in the trophically polymorphic fish Herichthys minckleyi. Crushing resistance and the frequency of the crushing morphotype did show spatial variation among 11 naturally replicated communities in the Cuatro Ciénegas valley in Mexico where these species are all endemic. The variation in crushing resistance among populations was not explained by geographic proximity or by genetic similarity in any species. We detected clear phylogeographic patterns and limited gene flow for the snails but not for the fish. Gene flow among snail populations in Cuatro Ciénegas could explain the mosaic of local divergence in shell strength and be preventing the fixation of the crushing morphotype in Herichthys minckleyi. Finally, consistent with trait matching across the mosaic, the frequency of the fish morphotype was negatively correlated with shell crushing resistance likely reflecting the relative disadvantage of the crushing morphotype in communities where the snails exhibit relatively high crushing resistance

Cortical Surround Interactions and Perceptual Salience via Natural Scene Statistics

Spatial context in images induces perceptual phenomena associated with salience and modulates the responses of neurons in primary visual cortex (V1). However, the computational and ecological principles underlying contextual effects are incompletely understood. We introduce a model of natural images that includes grouping and segmentation of neighboring features based on their joint statistics, and we interpret the firing rates of V1 neurons as performing optimal recognition in this model. We show that this leads to a substantial generalization of divisive normalization, a computation that is ubiquitous in many neural areas and systems. A main novelty in our model is that the influence of the context on a target stimulus is determined by their degree of statistical dependence. We optimized the parameters of the model on natural image patches, and then simulated neural and perceptual responses on stimuli used in classical experiments. The model reproduces some rich and complex response patterns observed in V1, such as the contrast dependence, orientation tuning and spatial asymmetry of surround suppression, while also allowing for surround facilitation under conditions of weak stimulation. It also mimics the perceptual salience produced by simple displays, and leads to readily testable predictions. Our results provide a principled account of orientation-based contextual modulation in early vision and its sensitivity to the homogeneity and spatial arrangement of inputs, and lends statistical support to the theory that V1 computes visual salience

Modulation of 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase as a strategy to reduce vascular inflammation

Atherosclerosis is a chronic inflammatory disease in which initial vascular damage leads to extensive macrophage and lymphocyte infiltration. Although acutely glucocorticoids suppress inflammation, chronic glucocorticoid excess worsens atherosclerosis, possibly by exacerbating systemic cardiovascular risk factors. However, glucocorticoid action within the lesion may reduce neointimal proliferation and inflammation. Glucocorticoid levels within cells do not necessarily reflect circulating levels due to pre-receptor metabolism by 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenases (11β-HSDs). 11β-HSD2 converts active glucocorticoids into inert 11-keto forms. 11β-HSD1 catalyses the reverse reaction, regenerating active glucocorticoids. 11β-HSD2-deficiency/ inhibition causes hypertension, whereas deficiency/ inhibition of 11β-HSD1 generates a cardioprotective lipid profile and improves glycemic control. Importantly, 11β-HSD1-deficiency/ inhibition is atheroprotective, whereas 11β-HSD2-deficiency accelerates atherosclerosis. These effects are largely independent of systemic risk factors, reflecting modulation of glucocorticoid action and inflammation within the vasculature. Here, we consider whether evidence linking the 11β-HSDs to vascular inflammation suggests these isozymes are potential therapeutic targets in vascular injury and atherosclerosis

Theorems on existence and global dynamics for the Einstein equations

This article is a guide to theorems on existence and global dynamics of solutions of the Einstein equations. It draws attention to open questions in the field. The local in time Cauchy problem, which is relatively well understood, is surveyed. Global results for solutions with various types of symmetry are discussed. A selection of results from Newtonian theory and special relativity which offer useful comparisons is presented. Treatments of global results in the case of small data and results on constructing spacetimes with prescribed singularity structure are given. A conjectural picture of the asymptotic behaviour of general cosmological solutions of the Einstein equations is built up. Some miscellaneous topics connected with the main theme are collected in a separate section.Comment: 54 pages, submitted to Living Reviews in Relativit

Population‐based cohort study of outcomes following cholecystectomy for benign gallbladder diseases

Background The aim was to describe the management of benign gallbladder disease and identify characteristics associated with all‐cause 30‐day readmissions and complications in a prospective population‐based cohort. Methods Data were collected on consecutive patients undergoing cholecystectomy in acute UK and Irish hospitals between 1 March and 1 May 2014. Potential explanatory variables influencing all‐cause 30‐day readmissions and complications were analysed by means of multilevel, multivariable logistic regression modelling using a two‐level hierarchical structure with patients (level 1) nested within hospitals (level 2). Results Data were collected on 8909 patients undergoing cholecystectomy from 167 hospitals. Some 1451 cholecystectomies (16·3 per cent) were performed as an emergency, 4165 (46·8 per cent) as elective operations, and 3293 patients (37·0 per cent) had had at least one previous emergency admission, but had surgery on a delayed basis. The readmission and complication rates at 30 days were 7·1 per cent (633 of 8909) and 10·8 per cent (962 of 8909) respectively. Both readmissions and complications were independently associated with increasing ASA fitness grade, duration of surgery, and increasing numbers of emergency admissions with gallbladder disease before cholecystectomy. No identifiable hospital characteristics were linked to readmissions and complications. Conclusion Readmissions and complications following cholecystectomy are common and associated with patient and disease characteristics