Simpson's paradox visualized: The example of the Rosiglitazone meta-analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Simpson's paradox is sometimes referred to in the areas of epidemiology and clinical research. It can also be found in meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials. However, though readers are able to recalculate examples from hypothetical as well as real data, they may have problems to easily figure where it emerges from.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>First, two kinds of plots are proposed to illustrate the phenomenon graphically, a scatter plot and a line graph. Subsequently, these can be overlaid, resulting in a overlay plot. The plots are applied to the recent large meta-analysis of adverse effects of rosiglitazone on myocardial infarction and to an example from the literature. A large set of meta-analyses is screened for further examples.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>As noted earlier by others, occurrence of Simpson's paradox in the meta-analytic setting, if present, is associated with imbalance of treatment arm size. This is well illustrated by the proposed plots. The rosiglitazone meta-analysis shows an effect reversion if all trials are pooled. In a sample of 157 meta-analyses, nine showed an effect reversion after pooling, though non-significant in all cases.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The plots give insight on how the imbalance of trial arm size works as a confounder, thus producing Simpson's paradox. Readers can see why meta-analytic methods must be used and what is wrong with simple pooling.</p

New Measurement of Parity Violation in Elastic Electron-Proton Scattering and Implications for Strange Form Factors

We have measured the parity-violating electroweak asymmetry in the elastic scattering of polarized electrons from the proton. The result is A = -15.05 +- 0.98(stat) +- 0.56(syst) ppm at the kinematic point theta_lab = 12.3 degrees and Q^2 = 0.477 (GeV/c)^2. The measurement implies that the value for the strange form factor (G_E^s + 0.392 G_M^s) = 0.025 +- 0.020 +- 0.014, where the first error is experimental and the second arises from the uncertainties in electromagnetic form factors. This measurement is the first fixed-target parity violation experiment that used either a `strained' GaAs photocathode to produce highly polarized electrons or a Compton polarimeter to continuously monitor the electron beam polarization.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, Tex, elsart.cls; revised version as accepted for Phys. Lett.

Display of probability densities for data from a continuous distribution

Based on cumulative distribution functions, Fourier series expansion and Kolmogorov tests, we present a simple method to display probability densities for data drawn from a continuous distribution. It is often more efficient than using histograms.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, presented at Computer Simulation Studies XXIV, Athens, GA, 201

Disturbance and diversity at two spatial scales

The spatial scale of disturbance is a factor potentially influencing the relationship between disturbance and diversity. There has been discussion on whether disturbances that affect local communities and create a mosaic of patches in different successional stages have the same effect on diversity as regional disturbances that affect the whole landscape. In a microcosm experiment with metacommunities of aquatic protists, we compared the effect of local and regional disturbances on the disturbance–diversity relationship. Local disturbances destroyed entire local communities of the metacommunity and required reimmigration from neighboring communities, while regional disturbances affected the whole metacommunity but left part of each local community intact. Both disturbance types led to a negative relationship between disturbance intensity and Shannon diversity. With strong local disturbance, this decrease in diversity was due to species loss, while strong regional disturbance had no effect on species richness but reduced the evenness of the community. Growth rate appeared to be the most important trait for survival after strong local disturbance and dominance after strong regional disturbance. The pattern of the disturbance–diversity relationship was similar for both local and regional diversity. Although local disturbances at least temporally increased beta diversity by creating a mosaic of differently disturbed patches, this high dissimilarity did not result in regional diversity being increased relative to local diversity. The disturbance–diversity relationship was negative for both scales of diversity. The flat competitive hierarchy and absence of a trade-off between competition and colonization ability are a likely explanation for this pattern

Locus-specific epigenetic remodeling controls addiction- and depression-related behaviors

Chronic exposure to drugs of abuse or stress regulates transcription factors, chromatin-modifying enzymes and histone post-translational modifications in discrete brain regions. Given the promiscuity of the enzymes involved, it has not yet been possible to obtain direct causal evidence to implicate the regulation of transcription and consequent behavioral plasticity by chromatin remodeling that occurs at a single gene. We investigated the mechanism linking chromatin dynamics to neurobiological phenomena by applying engineered transcription factors to selectively modify chromatin at a specific mouse gene in vivo. We found that histone methylation or acetylation at the Fosb locus in nucleus accumbens, a brain reward region, was sufficient to control drug- and stress-evoked transcriptional and behavioral responses via interactions with the endogenous transcriptional machinery. This approach allowed us to relate the epigenetic landscape at a given gene directly to regulation of its expression and to its subsequent effects on reward behavior