The Impacts of Climate Change, CO2, and SO2 on Agricultural Supply and Trade: An Integrated Assessment

The analysis of the impacts of alternative future energy paths on the regional supply and trade of agricultural commodities is part of an integrated assessment study undertaken a1 IIASA. For the agricultural study, results from the energy models (i.e., IIR and MESSAGE III) of IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies project and from the regional air pollution model RAINS developed by IIASA's Transboundary Air Pollution project were compiled to define the economic and environmental conditions for a number of simulation experiments with the BLS model. This paper examines the impacts of climate change and altered concentrations of CO2 and SO2 in the atmosphere, on crop yields and regional food supply. Three different emission abatement scenarios are tested, representing a range of possible economic development and regulatory pathways. Emission abatement, in terms of agricultural and environmental impacts, is a regional issue much more than a global one. While there is relatively little difference between outcomes at the global level, regional results vary greatly between scenarios

Ultracold electron bunch generation via plasma photocathode emission and acceleration in a beam-driven plasma blowout

Beam-driven plasma wakefield acceleration using low-ionization-threshold gas such as Li is combined with laser-controlled electron injection via ionization of high-ionization-threshold gas such as He. The He electrons are released with low transverse momentum in the focus of the copropagating, nonrelativistic-intensity laser pulse directly inside the accelerating or focusing phase of the Li blowout. This concept paves the way for the generation of sub-μm-size, ultralow-emittance, highly tunable electron bunches, thus enabling a flexible new class of an advanced free electron laser capable high-field accelerator. © 2012 American Physical Society

Design considerations for the use of laser-plasma accelerators for advanced space radiation studies

We present design considerations for the use of laser-plasma accelerators for mimicking space radiation and testing space-grade electronics. This novel application takes advantage of the inherent ability of laser-plasma accelerators to produce particle beams with exponential energy distribution, which is a characteristic shared with the hazardous relativistic electron flux present in the radiation belts of planets such as Earth, Saturn and Jupiter. Fundamental issues regarding laser-plasma interaction parameters, beam propagation, flux development, and experimental setup are discussed

Hybrid modeling of relativistic underdense plasma photocathode injectors

The dynamics of laser ionization-based electron injection in the recently introduced plasma photocathode concept is analyzed analytically and with particle-in-cell simulations. The influence of the initial few-cycle laser pulse that liberates electrons through background gas ionization in a plasma wakefield accelerator on the final electron phase space is described through the use of Ammosov-Deloine-Krainov theory as well as nonadiabatic Yudin-Ivanov (YI) ionization theory and subsequent downstream dynamics in the combined laser and plasma wave fields. The photoelectrons are tracked by solving their relativistic equations of motion. They experience the analytically described transient laser field and the simulation-derived plasma wakefields. It is shown that the minimum normalized emittance of fs-scale electron bunches released in mulit-GV/m-scale plasma wakefields is of the order of 10-2 mm mrad. Such unprecedented values, combined with the dramatically increased controllability of electron bunch production, pave the way for highly compact yet ultrahigh quality plasma-based electron accelerators and light source applications

On the Theory of Relativistic Strong Plasma Waves

The influence of motion of ions and electron temperature on nonlinear one-dimensional plasma waves with velocity close to the speed of light in vacuum is investigated. It is shown that although the wavebreaking field weakly depends on mass of ions, the nonlinear relativistic wavelength essentially changes. The nonlinearity leads to the increase of the strong plasma wavelength, while the motion of ions leads to the decrease of the wavelength. Both hydrodynamic approach and kinetic one, based on Vlasov-Poisson equations, are used to investigate the relativistic strong plasma waves in a warm plasma. The existence of relativistic solitons in a thermal plasma is predicted.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figure

Exploring the Potential for Using ENSO Forecasts in the U.S. Corn Belt

Interannual climate variability poses the greatest risk that farmers face. Until recently, seasonal climate forecasts have been weak and therefore rarely observed by farmers in making management decisions. Farm management is generally based on long-term mean expectations of climate and crop responses to local edaphic conditions. Currently, significant progress is being made in the skill level of predictions of seasonal to interannual climate, primarily because of new understanding of the teleconnections between ocean circulation and atmospheric processes. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) refers to fluctuations in both sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern equatorial Pacific and in sea-level pressures in the southern Pacific at a time scale of roughly 3 to 7 years. Using ocean circulation models, we are now able to forecast the SST anomaly up to a year in advance with an 80% level of accuracy (Latif et al., 1994). Thus, associated climate phenomena may be predicted with a high degree of skill using this tool. Given the strong relationship between crop growth and climate, this predictability carries significant implications for improved efficiency of agricultural production (Adams et al., 1995; Sonka et al., 1986). In some regions, the teleconnection between climate and ENSO has been well established. In others, however, the relationship is only now being elucidated. Thus, the spatial extent of the potential for use of ENSO forecasts is not well defined. We are developing a methodology that uses analysis of historical climate and crop data as well as models of crop growth and farm management to explore the extent of ENSO impacts and implications for using forecasts in agricultural management. Based on the few studies that have been done, there is indication of a significant link between ENSO and climate in the midwestern United States. Using reconstruction from white oak tree rings in Iowa going back to 1640, Cleveland and Duvick (1992) showed a strong correlation with the Southern Oscillation Index, one indicator of the ENSO phase. Handler (1984) used yield data from the major Corn Belt states going back to 1868 and a classification scheme ranking event intensity. He found a strong relationship, with El Niño years associated with positive maize yield anomalies and La Niña with negative anomalies. Our current work extends the analysis of the U.S. Corn Belt, with the objective of testing the potential for using long-range ENSO/climate forecasts to increase profit margins and decrease risk for maize farmers in the United States

Non-universality of compact support probability distributions in random matrix theory

The two-point resolvent is calculated in the large-n limit for the generalized fixed and bounded trace ensembles. It is shown to disagree with that of the canonical Gaussian ensemble by a nonuniversal part that is given explicitly for all monomial potentials V(M)=M2p. Moreover, we prove that for the generalized fixed and bounded trace ensemble all k-point resolvents agree in the large-n limit, despite their nonuniversality

Second Stage String Fragmentation Model

A string model, advocated by Bowler, provides a physical and intuitive picture of heavy quark fragmentation. When supplemented by an ad hoc factor of (1-z), to suppress fragmentation near z=1, it supplies an excellent fit to the data. We extend Bowler's model by accounting for the further decay of the massive mesonic states produced by the initial string breaking. We find that each subsequent string break and cascade decay beyond the first, introduces a factor of (1-z). Furthermore we find that including a finite mass for the quarks, which pop out of the vacuum and split the string, forces the first string breaking to produce massive states requiring further decay. This sequence terminates at the second stage of fragmentation where only relatively "light" heavy meson systems are formed. Thus we naturally account for the phenomenologically required factor of (1-z). We also predict that the ratio of (primary) fragments-vector/(vector plus scalar) should be .61. Our second stage string fragmentation model provides an appealing picture of heavy quark fragmentation.Comment: 15 page

Time Travelers: Mapping Museum Visitors across Time and Space

Open-air museums may encompass structures, buildings, sites, and other types of objects and artifacts that span across space and, because these objects were built and/or used during multiple periods of significance, across time. The multiplicity of storylines can confuse visitors. Thus, this paper introduces Somewhere in Time, a novel installation that integrates a combination of technologies with historic content that allows users to explore both time and space across museum structures/sites. We describe our work conceptualizing and designing a personalized, interactive map (Time Travelers) that allows visitors to explore complex narratives across both time and space

Simulating the Socio-Economic and Biogeophysical Driving Forces of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: The IIASA Land-Use Change Model

In 1995, a new project Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes in Europe and Northern Asia (LUC) was established at IIASA with the objective of analyzing the spatial characteristics, temporal dynamics, and environmental consequences of land-use and land-cover changes that have occurred in Europe and Northern Asia over the period 1900 to 1990 as a result of a range of socio-economic and biogeophysical driving forces. The analysis will then be used to project plausible future changes in land use and land cover for the period 1990 to 2050 under different assumptions of future demographic, economic, technological, social and political development. The study region, Europe and Northern Asia, has been selected because of its diversity in social, economic and political organization, the rapid changes in recent history, and the significant implications for current and future land-use and land-cover change. Land-cover change is driven by a multitude of processes. Natural processes, such as vegetation dynamics, involve alterations in cover due to natural changes in climate and soils. However, changes of land cover driven by anthropogenic forcing are currently the most important and most rapid of all changes (Turner et al. 1990). Therefore, any sound effort to project the future state of land cover must consider the determinants of human requirements and activities, e.g., demand for land-based products such as food, fiber and fuel, or use of land for recreation. In the past, major land-cover conversions have occurred as a consequence of deforestation to convert land for crop and livestock production; removal of wood for fuel and timber; conversion of wetlands to agricultural and other uses; conversion of land for habitation, infrastructure and industry; and conversion of land for mineral extraction (Turner et al. 1993). These human-induced conversions of land cover, particularly during the past two centuries, have resulted in a net release of CO2 to the atmosphere, changes in the characteristics of land surfaces (e.g., albedo and roughness), and decreased biodiversity. More subtle processes, termed land-cover modifications, affect the character of the land cover without changing its overall classification. For instance, land-cover degradation through erosion, overgrazing, desertification, salinization and acidification, is currently considered a major environmental problem. Although the effects of land-cover modifications may be small at local scales, their aggregate impact may be considerable. For example, use of fertilizers locally has no significance for atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. However, when practiced frequently in many locations, nitrogen fertilizer can make a significant contribution to emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) globally. The implementation of a comprehensive land-use change model poses a number of methodological challenges. These include the complexity of the issues involved and the large number of interacting agents and factors; the nonlinear interactions between prices, the supply of and the demand for land-based commodities and resources; the importance of intertemporal aspects; the intricacy of biogeophysical feedbacks; and the essential role of uncertainty in the overall evaluation of strategies. The interaction mechanisms between biophysical cycles and economic processes have mainly been studied in dynamic simulation models that follow recursive chains of causation, where the past and present events determine what will happen tomorrow. Not surprisingly, many of these studies have led to dramatic predictions, basically because the agents whose behavior is described within the model are themselves assumed to be unable to predict at all. By contrast, in micro-economics it is usually assumed that agents do have the capacity to make informed predictions and to plan so as to avoid the probability of disaster in the future. However, even full information and rationality of individual choice are not always sufficient to avoid disaster. The coordination mechanisms that prevail among economic agents often tend to be of decisive importance. The aim of this paper is to summarize the LUC project approach and to extend our earlier writings on modeling of land-use and land-cover change dynamics. We discuss the adequacy and applicability of welfare analysis as a conceptual framework for the LUC project at IIASA. We recognize from the outset the complexity of socio-economic and environmental driving forces and the fundamental uncertainties involved in their spatial and temporal interactions (and outcomes). Unlike physical particles, economic agents have the ability to anticipate, and they possess the freedom to change their behavior. This inherent unpredictability, in particular the multiplicity of possible outcomes, calls for a normative approach, and for comparative policy analysis rather than exact prediction. Therefore, we adopt an approach that enables the explicit representation of various policy measures, thus providing a means to search for "better futures", i.e., for trajectories of future development that may alleviate environmental stresses while improving human welfare