Bayesian Model Averaging and Weighted Average Least Squares: Equivariance, Stability, and Numerical Issues

This article is concerned with the estimation of linear regression models with uncertainty about the choice of the explanatory variables. We introduce the Stata commands bma and wals which implement, respectively, the exact Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) estimator and the Weighted Average Least Squares (WALS) estimator developed by Magnus et al. (2010). Unlike standard pretest estimators which are based on some preliminary diagnostic test, these model averaging estimators provide a coherent way of making inference on the regression parameters of interest by taking into account the uncertainty due to both the estimation and the model selection steps. Special emphasis is given to a number practical issues that users are likely to face in applied work: equivariance to certain transformations of the explanatory variables, stability, accuracy, computing speed and out-of-memory problems. Performances of our bma and wals commands are illustrated using simulated data and empirical applications from the literature on model averaging estimation.Model uncertainty;Model averaging;Bayesian analysis;Exact computation

Eliminating Redundant Training Data Using Unsupervised Clustering Techniques

Training data for supervised learning neural networks can be clustered such that the input/output pairs in each cluster are redundant. Redundant training data can adversely affect training time. In this paper we apply two clustering algorithms, ART2 -A and the Generalized Equality Classifier, to identify training data clusters and thus reduce the training data and training time. The approach is demonstrated for a high dimensional nonlinear continuous time mapping. The demonstration shows six-fold decrease in training time at little or no loss of accuracy in the handling of evaluation data

Formation of massive clouds and dwarf galaxies during tidal encounters

Gerola et al. (1983) propose that isolated dwarf galaxies can form during galaxy interactions. As evidence of this process, Mirabel et al. (1991) find 10(exp 9) solar mass clouds and star formation complexes at the outer ends of the tidal arms in the Antennae and Superantennae galaxies. We describe observations of HI clouds with mass greater than 10(exp 8) solar mass in the interacting galaxy pair IC 2163/NGC 2207. This pair is important because we believe it represents an early stage in the formation of giant clouds during an encounter. We use a gravitational instability model to explain why the observed clouds are so massive and discuss a two-dimensional N-body simulation of an encounter that produces giant clouds

Systems biology of energetic and atomic costs in the yeast transcriptome, proteome, and metabolome

Proteins vary in their cost to the cell and natural selection may favour the use of proteins that are cheaper to produce. We develop a novel approach to estimate the amino acid biosynthetic cost based on genome-scale metabolic models, and directly investigate the effects of biosynthetic cost on transcriptomic, proteomic and metabolomic data in _Saccharomyces cerevisiae_. We find that our systems approach to formulating biosynthetic cost produces a novel measure that explains similar levels of variation in gene expression compared with previously reported cost measures. Regardless of the measure used, the cost of amino acid synthesis is weakly associated with transcript and protein levels, independent of codon usage bias. In contrast, energetic costs explain a large proportion of variation in levels of free amino acids. In the economy of the yeast cell, there appears to be no single currency to compute the cost of amino acid synthesis, and thus a systems approach is necessary to uncover the full effects of amino acid biosynthetic cost in complex biological systems that vary with cellular and environmental conditions

Discrete Darboux transformation for discrete polynomials of hypergeometric type

Darboux Transformation, well known in second order differential operator theory, is applied here to the difference equation satisfied by the discrete hypergeometric polynomials(Charlier, Meixner-Krawchuk, Hahn)

Multiple cyclical fractional structures in financial time series

This paper analyses multiple cyclical structures in financial time series. In particular, we focus on the monthly structure of the Nasdaq, the Dow Jones and the Standard&Poor stock market indices. The three series are modelled as long-memory processes with poles in the spectrum at multiple frequencies, including the long-run or zero frequency

Waiting for Merkron: The Franco-German Relationship and Eurozone Reform after the Elections. College of Europe Policy Brief #8.17, October 2017

Executive Summary. France and Germany have fundamentally different interests concerning the Eurozone. Contrary to prevailing sentiment, the recent elections in both countries will therefore not necessarily reignite the Franco-German motor to bring about the pending Eurozone reform. > Although Merkel did not refuse Macron’s recent Euro reform plans, the ostensible agreement is owed to the fact that both sides mean different things when referring to an EU Finance Minister or a fiscal capacity to stabilize Eurozone economies. > Disagreement extends to strengthening the Eurozone’s social dimension and the revived idea of a European unemployment protection scheme. By contrast, France and Germany agree on protecting their labour markets. > Macron frames problems in innovative ways and exhibits a cooperative style. Despite differences, a renewed tandem may therefore be able to reform the Eurozone if certain conditions are met: External drivers, such as, the ‘refugee crisis’ and security concerns may facilitate cross-sectoral package deals; at the EU level, a rekindling of the Euro crisis could increase pressure on the tandem to make concessions; domestically, reform may be required as a continued ‘muddling through’ could further strengthen right-wing populists. > Not in the least, any Franco-German entente will need to respect the preferences of other member states, promote the Eurozone’s social dimension, and strengthen its democratic legitimation