The Probability Density of the Higgs Boson Mass

The LEP Collaborations have reported a small excess of events in their combined Higgs boson analysis at center of mass energies up to about 208 GeV. In this communication, I present the result of a calculation of the probability distribution function of the Higgs boson mass which can be rigorously obtained if the validity of the Standard Model is assumed. It arises from the combination of the most recent set of precision electroweak data and the current results of the Higgs searches at LEP 2.Comment: 3 pages, 2 figure

Fitting Parton Distribution Data with Multiplicative Normalization Uncertainties

We consider the generic problem of performing a global fit to many independent data sets each with a different overall multiplicative normalization uncertainty. We show that the methods in common use to treat multiplicative uncertainties lead to systematic biases. We develop a method which is unbiased, based on a self--consistent iterative procedure. We demonstrate the use of this method by applying it to the determination of parton distribution functions with the NNPDF methodology, which uses a Monte Carlo method for uncertainty estimation.Comment: 33 pages, 5 figures: published versio

Testing for rational speculative bubbles in the Brazilian residential real-estate market

Speculative bubbles have been occurring periodically in local or global real estate markets and are considered a potential cause of economic crises. In this context, the detection of explosive behaviors in the financial market and the implementation of early warning diagnosis tests are of critical importance. The recent increase in Brazilian housing prices has risen concerns that the Brazilian economy may have a speculative housing bubble. In the present paper, we employ a recently proposed recursive unit root test in order to identify possible speculative bubbles in data from the Brazilian residential real-estate market. The empirical results show evidence for speculative price bubbles both in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, the two main Brazilian cities

Evidence for Neutrinoless Double Beta Decay

The data of the Heidelberg-Moscow double beta decay experiment for the measuring period August 1990 - May 2000 (54.9813 kg y or 723.44 molyears), published recently, are analyzed using the potential of the Bayesian method for low counting rates. First evidence for neutrinoless double beta decay is observed giving first evidence for lepton number violation. The evidence for this decay mode is 97% (2.2\sigma) with the Bayesian method, and 99.8% c.l. (3.1\sigma) with the method recommended by the Particle Data Group. The half-life of the process is found with the Bayesian method to be T_{1/2}^{0\nu} = (0.8 - 18.3) x 10^{25} y (95% c.l.) with a best value of 1.5 x 10^{25} y. The deduced value of the effective neutrino mass is, with the nuclear matrix elements from [Sta90,Tom91] = (0.11 - 0.56) eV (95% c.l.), with a best value of 0.39 eV. Uncertainties in the nuclear matrix elements may widen the range given for the effective neutrino mass by at most a factor 2. Our observation which at the same time means evidence that the neutrino is a Majorana particle, will be of fundamental importance for neutrino physics. PACS. 14.69.Pq Neutrino mass and mixing; 23.40.Bw Weak-interaction and lepton (including neutrino) aspects 23.40.-s Beta decay; double beta decay; electron and muon capture.Comment: 14 pages, psfile, 7 figures, Published in Modern Physics Letters A, Vol. 16, No. 37 (2001) 2409-2420, World Scientific Publishing Company, Home Page: http://ejournals.wspc.com.sg/mpla/16/1637/S0217732301005825.html, Home Page of Heidelberg Non-Accelerator Particle Physics Group: http://www.mpi-hd.mpg.de/non_acc

Search for correlation between GRB's detected by BeppoSAX and gravitational wave detectors EXPLORER and NAUTILUS

Data obtained during five months of 2001 with the gravitational wave (GW) detectors EXPLORER and NAUTILUS were studied in correlation with the gamma ray burst data (GRB) obtained with the BeppoSAX satellite. During this period BeppoSAX was the only GRB satellite in operation, while EXPLORER and NAUTILUS were the only GW detectors in operation. No correlation between the GW data and the GRB bursts was found. The analysis, performed over 47 GRB's, excludes the presence of signals of amplitude h >=1.2 * 10^{-18}, with 95 % probability, if we allow a time delay between GW bursts and GRB within +-400 s, and h >= 6.5 * 10^{-19}, if the time delay is within +- 5 s. The result is also provided in form of scaled likelihood for unbiased interpretation and easier use for further analysis.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures. Latex file, compiled with cernik.cls (provided in the package

The Experimental Status of the Standard Electroweak Model at the End of the LEP-SLC Era

A method is proposed to calculate the confidence level for agreement of data with the Standard Model (SM) by combining information from direct and indirect Higgs Boson searches. Good agreement with the SM is found for $m_H \simeq 120$ GeV using the observables most sensitive to $m_H$: $A_l$ and $m_W$. In particular, quantum corrections, as predicted by the SM, are observed with a statistical significance of forty-four standard deviations. However, apparent deviations from the SM of 3.7$\sigma$ and 2.8$\sigma$ are found for the Z$\nu \bar{\nu}$ and right-handed Zb$\bar{{\rm b}}$ couplings respectively. The maximum confidence level for agreement with the SM of the entire data set considered is $\simeq 0.006$ for $m_H \simeq 180$ GeV. The reason why confidence levels about an order of magnitude higher than this have been claimed for global fits to similar data sets is explained.Comment: 47 pages, 8 figures, 24 tables. An in-depth study of statistical issues related to the comparison of precision EW data to the S

MaxEnt power spectrum estimation using the Fourier transform for irregularly sampled data applied to a record of stellar luminosity

The principle of maximum entropy is applied to the spectral analysis of a data signal with general variance matrix and containing gaps in the record. The role of the entropic regularizer is to prevent one from overestimating structure in the spectrum when faced with imperfect data. Several arguments are presented suggesting that the arbitrary prefactor should not be introduced to the entropy term. The introduction of that factor is not required when a continuous Poisson distribution is used for the amplitude coefficients. We compare the formalism for when the variance of the data is known explicitly to that for when the variance is known only to lie in some finite range. The result of including the entropic measure factor is to suggest a spectrum consistent with the variance of the data which has less structure than that given by the forward transform. An application of the methodology to example data is demonstrated.Comment: 15 pages, 13 figures, 1 table, major revision, final version, Accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Space Scienc

Fitting a sum of exponentials to lattice correlation functions using a non-uniform prior

Excited states are extracted from lattice correlation functions using a non-uniform prior on the model parameters. Models for both a single exponential and a sum of exponentials are considered, as well as an alternate model for the orthogonalization of the correlation functions. Results from an analysis of torelon and glueball operators indicate the Bayesian methodology compares well with the usual interpretation of effective mass tables produced by a variational procedure. Applications of the methodology are discussed.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, 8 tables, major revision, final versio

Kepler Presearch Data Conditioning II - A Bayesian Approach to Systematic Error Correction

With the unprecedented photometric precision of the Kepler Spacecraft, significant systematic and stochastic errors on transit signal levels are observable in the Kepler photometric data. These errors, which include discontinuities, outliers, systematic trends and other instrumental signatures, obscure astrophysical signals. The Presearch Data Conditioning (PDC) module of the Kepler data analysis pipeline tries to remove these errors while preserving planet transits and other astrophysically interesting signals. The completely new noise and stellar variability regime observed in Kepler data poses a significant problem to standard cotrending methods such as SYSREM and TFA. Variable stars are often of particular astrophysical interest so the preservation of their signals is of significant importance to the astrophysical community. We present a Bayesian Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) approach where a subset of highly correlated and quiet stars is used to generate a cotrending basis vector set which is in turn used to establish a range of "reasonable" robust fit parameters. These robust fit parameters are then used to generate a Bayesian Prior and a Bayesian Posterior Probability Distribution Function (PDF) which when maximized finds the best fit that simultaneously removes systematic effects while reducing the signal distortion and noise injection which commonly afflicts simple least-squares (LS) fitting. A numerical and empirical approach is taken where the Bayesian Prior PDFs are generated from fits to the light curve distributions themselves.Comment: 43 pages, 21 figures, Submitted for publication in PASP. Also see companion paper "Kepler Presearch Data Conditioning I - Architecture and Algorithms for Error Correction in Kepler Light Curves" by Martin C. Stumpe, et a

Transverse Enhancement Model and MiniBooNE Charge Current Quasi-Elastic Neutrino Scattering Data

Recently proposed Transverse Enhancement Model of nuclear effects in Charge Current Quasi-Elastic neutrino scattering [A. Bodek, H. S. Budd, and M. E. Christy, Eur. Phys. J. C{\bf 71} (2011) 1726] is confronted with the MiniBooNE high statistics experimental data. It is shown that the {\it effective} large axial mass model leads to better agreement with the data.Comment: 4 pages, 6 figure