Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed

Electron capture by Ne3+ ions from atomic hydrogen

Using the Oak Ridge National Laboratory ion-atom merged-beam apparatus, absolute total electron-capture cross sections have been measured for collisions of Ne3+ ions with hydrogen (deuterium) atoms at energies between 0.07 and 826 eV∕u. Comparison to previous measurements shows large discrepancies between 50 and 400 eV∕u. Previously published molecular-orbital close-coupling (MOCC) calculations were performed over limited energy ranges, but show good agreement with the present measurements. Here MOCC calculations are presented for energies between 0.01 and 1000 eV∕u for collisions with both H and D. For energies below ∼1 eV∕u, an enhancement in the magnitude of both the experimental and theoretical cross sections is observed which is attributed to the ion-induced dipole attraction between the reactants. Below ∼4 eV∕u, the present calculations show a significant target isotope effect

The comparative clinical course of pregnant and non-pregnant women hospitalised with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection

Introduction: The Influenza Clinical Information Network (FLU-CIN) was established to gather detailed clinical and epidemiological information about patients with laboratory confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infection in UK hospitals. This report focuses on the clinical course and outcomes of infection in pregnancy.Methods: A standardised data extraction form was used to obtain detailed clinical information from hospital case notes and electronic records, for patients with PCR-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infection admitted to 13 sentinel hospitals in five clinical 'hubs' and a further 62 non-sentinel hospitals, between 11th May 2009 and 31st January 2010.Outcomes were compared for pregnant and non-pregnant women aged 15-44 years, using univariate and multivariable techniques.Results: Of the 395 women aged 15-44 years, 82 (21%) were pregnant; 73 (89%) in the second or third trimester. Pregnant women were significantly less likely to exhibit severe respiratory distress at initial assessment (OR?=?0.49 (95% CI: 0.30-0.82)), require supplemental oxygen on admission (OR?=?0.40 (95% CI: 0.20-0.80)), or have underlying co-morbidities (p-trend <0.001). However, they were equally likely to be admitted to high dependency (Level 2) or intensive care (Level 3) and/or to die, after adjustment for potential confounders (adj. OR?=?0.93 (95% CI: 0.46-1.92). Of 11 pregnant women needing Level 2/3 care, 10 required mechanical ventilation and three died.Conclusions: Since the expected prevalence of pregnancy in the source population was 6%, our data suggest that pregnancy greatly increased the likelihood of hospital admission with A(H1N1)pdm09. Pregnant women were less likely than non-pregnant women to have respiratory distress on admission, but severe outcomes were equally likely in both groups

The Allen Telescope Array Twenty-centimeter Survey -- A 700-Square-Degree, Multi-Epoch Radio Dataset -- II: Individual Epoch Transient Statistics

We present our second paper on the Allen Telescope Array Twenty-centimeter Survey (ATATS), a multi-epoch, ~700 sq. deg. radio image and catalog at 1.4 GHz. The survey is designed to detect rare, bright transients as well as to commission the ATA's wide-field survey capabilities. ATATS explores the challenges of multi-epoch transient and variable source surveys in the domain of dynamic range limits and changing (u,v) coverage. Here we present images made using data from the individual epochs, as well as a revised image combining data from all ATATS epochs. The combined image has RMS noise 3.96 mJy / beam, with a circular beam of 150 arcsec FWHM. The catalog, generated using a false detection rate algorithm, contains 4984 sources, and is >90% complete to 37.9 mJy. The catalogs generated from snapshot images of the individual epochs contain between 1170 and 2019 sources over the 564 sq. deg. area in common to all epochs. The 90% completeness limits of the single epoch catalogs range from 98.6 to 232 mJy. We compare the catalog generated from the combined image to those from individual epochs, and from the NRAO VLA Sky Survey (NVSS), a legacy survey at the same frequency. We are able to place new constraints on the transient population: fewer than 6e-4 transients / sq. deg., for transients brighter than 350 mJy with characteristic timescales of minutes to days. This strongly rules out an astronomical origin for the ~1 Jy sources reported by Matsumura et al. (2009), based on their stated rate of 3.1e-3 / sq. deg.Comment: 28 pages, 12 figures, ApJ accepte

Relationship between particulate matter and childhood asthma – basis of a future warning system for central Phoenix

Statistically significant correlations between increase of asthma attacks in children and elevated concentrations of particulate matter of diameter 10 microns and less (PM₁₀) were determined for metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona. Interpolated concentrations from a five-site network provided spatial distribution of PM₁₀ that was mapped onto census tracts with population health records. The case-crossover statistical method was applied to determine the relationship between PM₁₀ concentration and asthma attacks. For children ages 5–17, a significant relationship was discovered between the two, while children ages 0–4 exhibited virtually no relationship. The risk of adverse health effects was expressed as a function of the change from the 25th to 75th percentiles of mean level PM₁₀ (36 μg m^−3). This increase in concentration was associated with a 12.6% (95% CI: 5.8%, 19.4%) increase in the log odds of asthma attacks among children ages 5–17. Neither gender nor other demographic variables were significant. The results are being used to develop an asthma early warning system for the study area

A Sample of Very Young Field L Dwarfs and Implications for the Brown Dwarf "Lithium Test" at Early Ages

Using a large sample of optical spectra of late-type dwarfs, we identify a subset of late-M through L field dwarfs that, because of the presence of low-gravity features in their spectra, are believed to be unusually young. From a combined sample of 303 field L dwarfs, we find observationally that 7.6+/-1.6% are younger than 100 Myr. This percentage is in agreement with theoretical predictions once observing biases are taken into account. We find that these young L dwarfs tend to fall in the southern hemisphere (Dec < 0 deg) and may be previously unrecognized, low-mass members of nearby, young associations like Tucana-Horologium, TW Hydrae, beta Pictoris, and AB Doradus. We use a homogeneously observed sample of roughly one hundred and fifty 6300-10000 Angstrom spectra of L and T dwarfs taken with the Low-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer at the W. M. Keck Observatory to examine the strength of the 6708-A Li I line as a function of spectral type and further corroborate the trends noted by Kirkpatrick et al. (2000). We use our low-gravity spectra to investigate the strength of the Li I line as a function of age. The data weakly suggest that for early- to mid-L dwarfs the line strength reaches a maximum for a few 100 Myr, whereas for much older (few Gyr) and much younger (<100 Myr) L dwarfs the line is weaker or undetectable. We show that a weakening of lithium at lower gravities is predicted by model atmosphere calculations, an effect partially corroborated by existing observational data. Larger samples containing L dwarfs of well determined ages are needed to further test this empirically. If verified, this result would reinforce the caveat first cited in Kirkpatrick et al. (2006) that the lithium test should be used with caution when attempting to confirm the substellar nature of the youngest brown dwarfs.Comment: 73 pages with 22 figures; to appear in ApJ (Dec 20, 2008, v689n2 issue

High-velocity OH megamasers in IRAS 20100-4156: Evidence for a Supermassive Black Hole

We report the discovery of new, high-velocity narrow-line components of the OH megamaser in IRAS 20100-4156. Results from the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP)'s Boolardy Engineering Test Array (BETA) and the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA) provide two independent measurements of the OH megamaser spectrum. We found evidence for OH megamaser clumps at $-$409 and $-$562 km/s (blue-shifted) from the systemic velocity of the galaxy, in addition to the lines previously known. The presence of such high velocities in the molecular emission from IRAS 20100$-$4156 could be explained by a ~50 pc molecular ring enclosing an approximately 3.8 billion solar mass black hole. We also discuss two alternatives, i.e. that the narrow-line masers are dynamically coupled to the wind driven by the active galactic nucleus or they are associated with two separate galactic nuclei. The comparison between the BETA and ATCA spectra provides another scientific verification of ASKAP's BETA. Our data, combined with previous measurements of the source enabled us to study the variability of the source over a twenty-six year period. The flux density of the brightest OH maser components has reduced by more than a factor of two between 1988 and 2015, whereas a secondary narrow-line component has more than doubled in the same time. Plans for high-resolution VLBI follow-up of this source are discussed, as are prospects for discovering new OH megamasers during the ASKAP early science program.Comment: Accepted to MNRAS. Seven pages, three figure

Beyond Outerplanarity

We study straight-line drawings of graphs where the vertices are placed in convex position in the plane, i.e., convex drawings. We consider two families of graph classes with nice convex drawings: outer $k$-planar graphs, where each edge is crossed by at most $k$ other edges; and, outer $k$-quasi-planar graphs where no $k$ edges can mutually cross. We show that the outer $k$-planar graphs are $(\lfloor\sqrt{4k+1}\rfloor+1)$-degenerate, and consequently that every outer $k$-planar graph can be $(\lfloor\sqrt{4k+1}\rfloor+2)$-colored, and this bound is tight. We further show that every outer $k$-planar graph has a balanced separator of size $O(k)$. This implies that every outer $k$-planar graph has treewidth $O(k)$. For fixed $k$, these small balanced separators allow us to obtain a simple quasi-polynomial time algorithm to test whether a given graph is outer $k$-planar, i.e., none of these recognition problems are NP-complete unless ETH fails. For the outer $k$-quasi-planar graphs we prove that, unlike other beyond-planar graph classes, every edge-maximal $n$-vertex outer $k$-quasi planar graph has the same number of edges, namely $2(k-1)n - \binom{2k-1}{2}$. We also construct planar 3-trees that are not outer $3$-quasi-planar. Finally, we restrict outer $k$-planar and outer $k$-quasi-planar drawings to \emph{closed} drawings, where the vertex sequence on the boundary is a cycle in the graph. For each $k$, we express closed outer $k$-planarity and \emph{closed outer $k$-quasi-planarity} in extended monadic second-order logic. Thus, closed outer $k$-planarity is linear-time testable by Courcelle's Theorem.Comment: Appears in the Proceedings of the 25th International Symposium on Graph Drawing and Network Visualization (GD 2017

Learning From Early Attempts to Generalize Darwinian Principles to Social Evolution

Copyright University of Hertfordshire &amp; author.Evolutionary psychology places the human psyche in the context of evolution, and addresses the Darwinian processes involved, particularly at the level of genetic evolution. A logically separate and potentially complementary argument is to consider the application of Darwinian principles not only to genes but also to social entities and processes. This idea of extending Darwinian principles was suggested by Darwin himself. Attempts to do this appeared as early as the 1870s and proliferated until the early twentieth century. But such ideas remained dormant in the social sciences from the 1920s until after the Second World War. Some lessons can be learned from this earlier period, particularly concerning the problem of specifying the social units of selection or replication