Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM), with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME) of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009) over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. <br><br> The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast

The survey of the effect of ginger extract on gastric residual volume in mechanically ventilated patients hospitalized in the Intensive Care Units

Background and purpose: Delayed gastric emptying in mechanically ventilated patients is common. According to evidences, Ginger can accelerate gastric emptying. This study aimed to determine the effect of ginger extract on gastric residual volume of patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit. Materials and Methods: In this double-blind randomized controlled clinical trial with before and after schematization, 24 mechanically ventilated patients hospitalized in ICUs were divided into two groups, intervention group (12 patients) and control group (n = 12) after matching for sex and severity of disease. After 48 hours of feeding with a standard gavage solution, the intervention group received 120mg of ginger extract in 4 days and the control group received 5 ml water as placebo in 4 days. The mean residual volume was recorded in the fifth and the sixth days. Data analysis was done with independent and paired T-tests at a significance level of 0.05. Results: The mean residual volume in the first 48 hours was not significantly different between the groups. But after 48 hours of starting treatment, the average of mean and standard deviation of the residual volume in the fifth and sixth days were (24.58±16.81) in intervention group and (108.33±15.09) in control group that according to the Independent T-test showed a significant difference (P <0.0001). Discussion and Conclusion: The result of this study showed that ginger extract reduces gastric residual volume in mechanically ventilated patients hospitalized in intensive care units compared with placebo. © 2013 AENSI Publisher All rights reserved

Prevalence of ESBLs in Acinetobacter baumannii isolated from intensive care unit (ICU) of Ghaem hospital, Mashhad, Iran

Acinetobacter baumannii is an important opportunistic pathogen that mainly infects critically patients in intensive care units (ICU). The production of plasmid-mediated extended-spectrum b-lactamases (ESBLs) is one of the most important mechanisms of resistance against b-lactam antibiotics. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of ESBLs in A. baumannii isolated from ICU of Ghaem hospital, Mashhad, Iran. A total of 140 A. baumannii isolates recovered from hospitalized patients in ICU of Ghaem hospital in Mashhad city from December 2014 to March 2015. Identification of A. baumannii isolates carried out using biochemical laboratory methods and then confirmed by OXA-51 PCR screening. Susceptibility testing performed using disk diffusion (Kirby-Bauer) method as recommended by CLSI guidelines. A. baumannii isolates screened for production of ESBLs using combination disk test. blaPER, blaGES, blaTEM, blaSHV, blaCTX, blaVEB and blaOXA-10 beta-lactamase genes detected using conventional PCR. The most antibacterial resistance was against cefuroxime (­99.3%) and colistin was the most effective antibiotic. None of the isolates were ESBL producer by combination disk test. However, results of PCR revealed that the prevalence of blaPER, blaGES and blaTEM genes were 7.1%, 4.3% and 27.1%, respectively. blaCTX, blaVEB, and blaOXA-10 were not found in any of isolates. According to the results, the high resistance was seen against selected antibiotics and the phenotypic tests are not sufficient alone for determination of ESBLs producer of A. baumannii isolates. So, molecular tests are also necessary for detection of these enzymes

Classical and quantum spinor cosmology with signature change

We study the classical and quantum cosmology of a universe in which the matter source is a massive Dirac spinor field and consider cases where such fields are either free or self-interacting. We focus attention on the spatially flat Robertson-Walker cosmology and classify the solutions of the Einstein-Dirac system in the case of zero, negative and positive cosmological constant $\Lambda$. For $\Lambda<0$, these solutions exhibit signature transitions from a Euclidean to a Lorentzian domain. In the case of massless spinor fields it is found that signature changing solutions do not exist when the field is free while in the case of a self-interacting spinor field such solutions may exist. The resulting quantum cosmology and the corresponding Wheeler-DeWitt equation are also studied for both free and self interacting spinor fields and closed form expressions for the wavefunction of the universe are presented. These solutions suggest a quantization rule for the energy.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figure

Grown-up stars physics with MATISSE

MATISSE represents a great opportunity to image the environment around massive and evolved stars. This will allow one to put constraints on the circumstellar structure, on the mass ejection of dust and its reorganization , and on the dust-nature and formation processes. MATISSE measurements will often be pivotal for the understanding of large multiwavelength datasets on the same targets collected through many high-angular resolution facilities at ESO like sub-millimeter interferometry (ALMA), near-infrared adaptive optics (NACO, SPHERE), interferometry (PIONIER, GRAVITY), spectroscopy (CRIRES), and mid-infrared imaging (VISIR). Among main sequence and evolved stars, several cases of interest have been identified that we describe in this paper.Comment: SPIE, Jun 2016, Edimbourgh, Franc

The galaxy environment in GAMA G3C groups using the Kilo Degree Survey Data Release 3

We aim to investigate the galaxy environment in GAMA Galaxy Groups Catalogue (G3C) using a volume-limited galaxy sample from the Kilo Degree Survey Data Release 3. The k-Nearest Neighbour technique is adapted to take into account the probability density functions (PDFs) of photometric redshifts in our calculations. This algorithm was tested on simulated KiDS tiles, showing its capability of recovering the relation between galaxy colour, luminosity and local environment. The characterization of the galaxy environment in G3C groups shows systematically steeper density contrasts for more massive groups. The red galaxy fraction gradients in these groups is evident for most of group mass bins. The density contrast of red galaxies is systematically higher at group centers when compared to blue galaxy ones. In addition, distinct group center definitions are used to show that our results are insensitive to center definitions. These results confirm the galaxy evolution scenario which environmental mechanisms are responsible for a slow quenching process as galaxies fall into groups and clusters, resulting in a smooth observed colour gradients in galaxy systems.Comment: 14 pages, Accepted to MNRA

Minimal Length and the Quantum Bouncer: A Nonperturbative Study

We present the energy eigenvalues of a quantum bouncer in the framework of the Generalized (Gravitational) Uncertainty Principle (GUP) via quantum mechanical and semiclassical schemes. In this paper, we use two equivalent nonperturbative representations of a deformed commutation relation in the form [X,P]=i\hbar(1+\beta P^2) where \beta is the GUP parameter. The new representation is formally self-adjoint and preserves the ordinary nature of the position operator. We show that both representations result in the same modified semiclassical energy spectrum and agrees well with the quantum mechanical description.Comment: 14 pages, 2 figures, to appear in Int. J. Theor. Phy

Novel RNA modifications in the nervous system: form and function

Modified RNA molecules have recently been shown to regulate nervous system functions. This mini-review and associated mini-symposium provide an overview of the types and known functions of novel modified RNAs in the nervous system, including covalently modified RNAs, edited RNAs, and circular RNAs. We discuss basic molecular mechanisms involving RNA modifications as well as the impact of modified RNAs and their regulation on neuronal processes and disorders, including neural fate specification, intellectual disability, neurodegeneration, dopamine neuron function, and substance use disorders

Line Forces in Keplerian Circumstellar Disks and Precession of Nearly Circular Orbits

We examine the effects of optically thick line forces on orbiting circumstellar disks, such as occur around Be stars. For radially streaming radiation, line forces are only effective if there is a strong radial velocity gradient, as occurs, for example, in a line-driven stellar wind. However, within an orbiting disk, the radial shear of the azimuthal velocity leads to strong line-of-sight velocity velocity gradients along nonradial directions. As such, in the proximity of a stellar surface extending over a substantial cone angle, the nonradial stellar radiation can impart a significant line force, even in the case of purely circular orbits. Given the highly supersonic nature of orbital velocity variations, we use the Sobolev approximation, thereby extending to the disk case the standard CAK formalism developed for line-driven winds. We delineate the parameter regimes for which radiative forces might alter disk properties; but even when radiative forces are small, we analytically quantify higher-order effects in the linear limit, including the precession of weakly elliptical orbits. We find that optically thick line forces can have observable implications for the dynamics of disks around Be stars, including the generation of either prograde or retrograde precession in slightly eccentric orbits. However, our analysis suggests a net retrograde effect, in apparent contradiction with observed long-term variations of violet/red line profile asymmetries from Be stars, which are generally thought to result from prograde propagation of a so-called ``one arm mode''. We also conclude that radiative forces may alter the dynamical properties at the surface of the disk where disk winds originate, and may even make low-density disks vulnerable to being blown away.Comment: 31 pages, Latex, aaspp4 macro, 4 figure

A scene model of exosolar systems for use in planetary detection and characterisation simulations

Instrumental projects that will improve the direct optical finding and characterisation of exoplanets have advanced sufficiently to trigger organized investigation and development of corresponding signal processing algorithms. The first step is the availability of field-of-view (FOV) models. These can then be submitted to various instrumental models, which in turn produce simulated data, enabling the testing of processing algorithms. We aim to set the specifications of a physical model for typical FOVs of these instruments. The dynamic in resolution and flux between the various sources present in such a FOV imposes a multiscale, independent layer approach. From review of current literature and through extrapolations from currently available data and models, we derive the features of each source-type in the field of view likely to pass the instrumental filter at exo-Earth level. Stellar limb darkening is shown to cause bias in leakage calibration if unaccounted for. Occurrence of perturbing background stars or galaxies in the typical FOV is unlikely. We extract galactic interstellar medium background emissions for current target lists. Galactic background can be considered uniform over the FOV, and it should show no significant drift with parallax. Our model specifications have been embedded into a Java simulator, soon to be made open-source. We have also designed an associated FITS input/output format standard that we present here.Comment: 9 pages (+5 of appendices), 7 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic