Global and Regional Population Growth if European Demographic Transition Patterns Had Been Universal

This study provides simulations showing what global and regional population sizes would be if the rest of the world would have experienced similar population growth patterns as what was observed in Europe during the demographic transition. In 1820-2010, slower growth was observed in Europe & North America where population increased by 4.6 times to a level of 1,088 million. The population of Asia increased from 720 million to 4,165 million. However, the biggest change from 1820 to 2010 was observed in regions that had relatively small populations in 1820 -- Latin America (which increased by 38 times to 597 million) and Africa (which increased by 14 times to 1,031 million). Our simulations show that if the French pattern of population growth had been followed (French population size increasing by 2.5 1820-2010), the global population would have merely doubled during the demographic transition (increasing to 2.02 times its original size) over the 1820-2010 period. All regions would have had a significantly lower population size: Europe & North America would have increased to 474 million and Asia to 1,453 million, while Africa would have grown to 150 million, which is just 15% of its current population. Projections suggest that population implications of following the in the coming decades would have been much lower -- e.g., if Nigeria would have followed the French population growth trajectory, it would grow to 72 million in 2100, while UN median variant projections suggest it would reach 914 million people by 2100

American political affiliation, 2003–43: a cohort component projection

The recent rise and stability in American party identification has focused interest on the long-term dynamics of party bases. Liberal commentators cite immigration and youth as forces which will produce a natural Democratic advantage in the future while conservative writers highlight the importance of high Republican fertility in securing Republican growth. These concerns foreground the neglect of demography within political science. This paper addresses this omission by conducting the first ever cohort component projection of American partisan populations to 2043 based on survey and census data. A number of scenarios are modeled, but, on current trends, we predict that American partisanship will shift much less than the nation’s ethnic composition because the parties’ age structures are similar. Still, our projections find that the Democrats gain two to three percentage points from the Republicans by 2043, mainly through immigration, though Republican fertility may redress the balance in the very long term

Social and ethical criteria for prioritizing patients: a survey of students and health professionals in Portugal

O estudo quali-quantitativo explora o dilema ético da microalocação dos recursos da saúde. Objetiva identificar e comparar a opinião de dois grupos da sociedade portuguesa - estudantes e profissionais de saúde sobre a importância das características pessoais dos pacientes no momento de os priorizar e se as escolhas se explicam por referenciais bioéticos de caráter utilitaristas ou deontológicos. Os dados foram recolhidos através de um questionário aplicado a uma amostra de 180 estudantes universitários e 60 profissionais de saúde. Os respondentes perante hipotéticos cená- rios de emergência clínica tiveram de escolher de entre dois pacientes (distinguidos por idade, sexo, responsabilidade social, situação económica e laboral, comportamentos lesivos da saúde e registo criminal) quem tratar e justificar a escolha. Foram usados testes estatísticos de associação para comparar as respostas dos dois grupos e análise de conteúdo para categorizar as justificações. Os resultados sugerem a existência de diferenças nas escolhas dos dois grupos, com os profissionais de saúde a revelarem aceitar menos a utilização de critérios sociais em contexto de escassez e coexistência de critérios utilitaristas e deontológicos, com predomínio da eficiência por parte dos profissionais de saúde e da equidade por parte dos estudantesThis qualitative/quantitative study examines the ethical dilemma of microallocation of health resources. It seeks to identify and compare the opinion of two groups in Portuguese society – students and health professionals – on the importance of personal characteristics of patients at the moment of prioritizing them and if the choices can be explained by bioethical references of a utilitarian or deontological nature. Data were collected by means of a questionnaire administered to a sample of 180 students and 60 health professionals. Faced with hypothetical emergency scenarios, the respondents had to choose between two patients (distinguished by: age, gender, social responsibility, economic and employment situation, harmful health behaviors and criminal record), duly selecting who to treat and then justifying their choice. The results suggest the existence of differences in choices between the two groups, with health professionals revealing they are less prepared to accept the use of social criteria in a context of scarce resources and co-existence of utilitarian and deontological criteria, with a predominance of efficiency on the part of health professionals and equity on the part of students.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Observed communication skills: how do they relate to the consultation content? A nation-wide study of graduate medical students seeing a standardized patient for a first-time consultation in a general practice setting

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In this study, we wanted to investigate the relationship between background variables, communication skills, and the bio-psychosocial content of a medical consultation in a general practice setting with a standardized patient.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Final-year medical school students (N = 111) carried out a consultation with an actor playing the role of a patient with a specific somatic complaint, psychosocial stressors, and concerns about cancer. Based on videotapes, communication skills and consultation content were scored separately.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean level of overall communication skills had a significant impact upon the counts of psychosocial issues, the patient's concerns about cancer, and the information and planning parts of the consultation content being addressed. Gender and age had no influence upon the relationship between communication skills and consultation content.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Communication skills seem to be important for final-year students' competence in addressing sensitive psychosocial issues and patients' concerns as well as informing and planning with patients being representative for a fairly complex case in general practice. This result should be considered in the design and incorporation of communication skills training as part of the curriculum of medical schools.</p

Educational Homogamy Lowers the Odds of Reproductive Failure

Assortative mating based on education is a common phenomenon. We investigated whether it affected parameters of reproductive performance such as childlessness, offspring number and age at first marriage. On the basis of the US census from 1980 (n = 670,631 married US couples), we find that the proportion of childless individuals is usually minimal in women married to a husband of the same educational level. This holds particularly true in the highest and the lowest educated women. Educational homogamy is also associated with a lower average age at first marriage. No obvious effect of educational homogamy on a woman's average offspring number is found, where mean offspring number generally increases both with decreasing woman's and decreasing husband's educational attainment. We conclude that educational homogamy reduces the likelihood of reproductive failure

Arbeitsangebotseffekte einer subventionierten Altersteilzeitregelung in Österreich

In this paper we evaluate the impact of the old-age part-time scheme (OAPT) on the Austrian labor market which was a policy to allow flexible retirement options for the elderly with an aim to increase labor supply. According to our matching estimates, employment probability increases slightly; especially in the first two years after entrance into the programme. Furthermore, the programme seems to reduce the measured unemployment risk. However, the total number of hours worked is significantly reduced by OAPT. While the policy is meant to reduce early exit from the labor force by allowing part-time work, our analysis indicates that most workers substitute part-time work for full-time work and thus the overall effect is rather negative

Age and skill bias of trade liberalisation? : heterogeneous employment effects of EU Eastern Enlargement

This study analyses the 2004 Eastern Enlargement to the European Union to obtain evidence on the employment effects of an increase in trade liberalisation. The Enlargement is thought to generate a trade-induced demand shock with no (or only limited) supply effects. Besides the variation over time induced by the Enlargement, identification of the effects is based on a Melitz (2003) type productivity term to differentiate firms by the extent of exposure to the demand shock. The idea is that the effects of the demand shock should be driven by differences in firm-level productivity from the period before the new member countries actually entered the EU. German linked employer-employee data allow to observe the relation of initial establishment productivity with employment changes over a long panel from 1995 to 2009. The estimates show that the Enlargement had a negative effect on establishment-level employment growth, which is driven by increased worker separations and increased job destruction. Besides the overall employment effect, the study focuses on effect heterogeneity across age and skill groups of the workforce. These estimates point to a skill bias in the effect of the Enlargement that disadvantages low- and medium-skilled workers in terms of higher worker separation and job destruction. In addition, lowskilled workers suffer fewer accessions by firms, where against medium-skilled workers enjoy increased accessions and creation of new jobs. Besides this indication for a skill bias, there are no clear indications that point to an age bias in the employment effect of the Eastern Enlargement