Robust assessment of future changes in extreme precipitation over the Rhine basin using a GCM

Estimates of future changes in extremes of multiday precipitation sums are critical for estimates of future discharge extremes of large river basins. Here we use a large ensemble of global climate model SRES A1b scenario simulations to estimate changes in extremes of 1–20 day precipitation sums over the Rhine basin, projected for the period 2071–2100 with reference to 1961–1990. We find that in winter, an increase of order 10%, for the 99th percentile precipitation sum, is approximately fixed across the selected range of multiday sums, whereas in summer, the changes become increasingly negative as the summation time lengthens. Explanations for these results are presented that have implications for simple scaling methods for creating time series of a future climate. We show that the dependence of quantile changes on summation time is sensitive to the ensemble size and indicate that currently available discharge estimates from previous studies are based on insufficiently long time series

A gauge invariant chiral unitary framework for kaon photo- and electroproduction on the proton

We present a gauge invariant approach to photoproduction of mesons on nucleons within a chiral unitary framework. The interaction kernel for meson-baryon scattering is derived from the chiral effective Lagrangian and iterated in a Bethe-Salpeter equation. Within the leading order approximation to the interaction kernel, data on kaon photoproduction from SAPHIR, CLAS and CBELSA/TAPS are analyzed in the threshold region. The importance of gauge invariance and the precision of various approximations in the interaction kernel utilized in earlier works are discussed.Comment: 23 pages, 13 figs, EPJ A styl

Sorting Via Screening Versus Signaling: A Theoretic and Experimental Comparison

Similar to Kübler et al. (2008, GEB 64, p. 219-236), we compare sorting in games with asymmetric incomplete information theoretically and experimentally. Rather than distinguishing two very different sequential games, we use the same game format and capture the structural difference of screening and signaling only via their payoff specification. The experiment thus relies on the same verbal instructions. Although the equilibrium outcomes coincide, greater efficiency losses off the equilibrium play due to sorting under signaling, compared to screening, is predicted and confirmed experimentally

The Category of Node-and-Choice Forms, with Subcategories for Choice-Sequence Forms and Choice-Set Forms

The literature specifies extensive-form games in many styles, and eventually I hope to formally translate games across those styles. Toward that end, this paper defines $\mathbf{NCF}$, the category of node-and-choice forms. The category's objects are extensive forms in essentially any style, and the category's isomorphisms are made to accord with the literature's small handful of ad hoc style equivalences. Further, this paper develops two full subcategories: $\mathbf{CsqF}$ for forms whose nodes are choice-sequences, and $\mathbf{CsetF}$ for forms whose nodes are choice-sets. I show that $\mathbf{NCF}$ is "isomorphically enclosed" in $\mathbf{CsqF}$ in the sense that each $\mathbf{NCF}$ form is isomorphic to a $\mathbf{CsqF}$ form. Similarly, I show that $\mathbf{CsqF_{\tilde a}}$ is isomorphically enclosed in $\mathbf{CsetF}$ in the sense that each $\mathbf{CsqF}$ form with no-absentmindedness is isomorphic to a $\mathbf{CsetF}$ form. The converses are found to be almost immediate, and the resulting equivalences unify and simplify two ad hoc style equivalences in Kline and Luckraz 2016 and Streufert 2019. Aside from the larger agenda, this paper already makes three practical contributions. Style equivalences are made easier to derive by [1] a natural concept of isomorphic invariance and [2] the composability of isomorphic enclosures. In addition, [3] some new consequences of equivalence are systematically deduced.Comment: 43 pages, 9 figure

Preoperative dietary intake of low-dose sulforaphane induces no clinically significant effect in living donor kidney transplantation

Introduction: Sulforaphane (SFN) has anti-inflammatory properties, and is found in broccoli sprouts. Studies suggest that it protects against disease due to its anti-inflammatory activity. The impact of SFN on healthy people undergoing a surgical procedure has not been investigated. Objective: To explore the effect of SFN in living kidney donors on the postoperative inflammatory response and recovery. Methods: We performed a double-blind randomised controlled trial where donors followed a SFN-enriched (8 mg) preoperative diet. Results:A total of 42 donors were included, there were no significant differences at baseline. Postoperative inflammatory response was consistent among both arms and subjective recovery showed no significant difference. Findings regarding postoperative kidney function suggest no consistently significant impact. Discussion: A well-defined SFN-enriched diet did not have anti-inflammatory or a clinically relevant effect on the outcome. Due to the complexity of dietary modification of the inflammatory response, additional research is needed.</p

Preoperative dietary intake of low-dose sulforaphane induces no clinically significant effect in living donor kidney transplantation

Introduction: Sulforaphane (SFN) has anti-inflammatory properties, and is found in broccoli sprouts. Studies suggest that it protects against disease due to its anti-inflammatory activity. The impact of SFN on healthy people undergoing a surgical procedure has not been investigated. Objective: To explore the effect of SFN in living kidney donors on the postoperative inflammatory response and recovery. Methods: We performed a double-blind randomised controlled trial where donors followed a SFN-enriched (8 mg) preoperative diet. Results:A total of 42 donors were included, there were no significant differences at baseline. Postoperative inflammatory response was consistent among both arms and subjective recovery showed no significant difference. Findings regarding postoperative kidney function suggest no consistently significant impact. Discussion: A well-defined SFN-enriched diet did not have anti-inflammatory or a clinically relevant effect on the outcome. Due to the complexity of dietary modification of the inflammatory response, additional research is needed.</p

On the recurrence and robust properties of Lorenz'63 model

Lie-Poisson structure of the Lorenz'63 system gives a physical insight on its dynamical and statistical behavior considering the evolution of the associated Casimir functions. We study the invariant density and other recurrence features of a Markov expanding Lorenz-like map of the interval arising in the analysis of the predictability of the extreme values reached by particular physical observables evolving in time under the Lorenz'63 dynamics with the classical set of parameters. Moreover, we prove the statistical stability of such an invariant measure. This will allow us to further characterize the SRB measure of the system.Comment: 44 pages, 7 figures, revised version accepted for pubblicatio

Future weather

The impact of climate change will manifest itself in our future weather. In the project Future Weather we investigated a number of these impact relevant weather conditions in the (present and) future climate. We focussed primarily on changes in precipitation extremes on different scales ranging from intense showers at local scales to multi-day precipitation extremes over the Rhine catchment area. On an intermediate scale, regional differences in precipitation within the Netherlands are studied. Finally, we considered a worst case scenario of a combined wind and discharge extreme

Mesoscopic structure conditions the emergence of cooperation on social networks

We study the evolutionary Prisoner's Dilemma on two social networks obtained from actual relational data. We find very different cooperation levels on each of them that can not be easily understood in terms of global statistical properties of both networks. We claim that the result can be understood at the mesoscopic scale, by studying the community structure of the networks. We explain the dependence of the cooperation level on the temptation parameter in terms of the internal structure of the communities and their interconnections. We then test our results on community-structured, specifically designed artificial networks, finding perfect agreement with the observations in the real networks. Our results support the conclusion that studies of evolutionary games on model networks and their interpretation in terms of global properties may not be sufficient to study specific, real social systems. In addition, the community perspective may be helpful to interpret the origin and behavior of existing networks as well as to design structures that show resilient cooperative behavior.Comment: Largely improved version, includes an artificial network model that fully confirms the explanation of the results in terms of inter- and intra-community structur

Budget Processes: Theory and Experimental Evidence

This paper studies budget processes, both theoretically and experimentally. We compare the outcomes of bottom-up and top-down budget processes. It is often presumed that a top-down budget process leads to a smaller overall budget than a bottom-up budget process. Ferejohn and Krehbiel (1987) showed theoretically that this need not be the case. We test experimentally the theoretical predictions of their work. The evidence from these experiments lends strong support to their theory, both at the aggregate and the individual subject level