After Columbus: Explaining the Global Trade Boom 1500-1800

This paper documents the size and timing of the world inter-continental trade boom following the great voyages in the 1490s of Columbus, da Gama and their followers. Indeed, a trade boom followed over the subsequent three centuries. But what was its cause? The conventional wisdom in the world history literature offers globalization as the answer: it alleges that declining trade barriers, falling transport costs and overseas "discovery" explains the boom. In contrast, this paper reports the evidence that confirms unambiguously that there was no commodity price convergence between continents, something that would have emerged had globalization been a force that mattered. Thus, the trade boom must have been caused by some combination of European import demand and foreign export supply from Asia and the Americas. Furthermore, the behavior of the relative price of foreign importables in European cities should tell us which mattered most and when. We offer detailed evidence on the relative prices of such importables in European markets over the five centuries 1350-1850. We then offer a model which is used to decompose the sources of the trade boom 1500-1800.

After Columbus: Explaining the Global Trade Boom 1500-1800

This paper documents the size and timing of the world inter-continental trade boom following the greate voyages in the 1490s of Columbus, da Gama and their followers. Indeed, a trade boom followed over the subsequent three centuries. But what was its cause? The conventionnal wisdom in the world history literature offers globalization as the answer: it alleges that declining trade barriers falling transport costs and overseas "discovery" explains the boom. In contrast, this paper reports the evidence that confirms unambiguously that there was no commodity price convergence between continents, something that would have emerged had globalization been a force that mattered. Thus, the trade boom must have been caused by some combination of European import demand and foreign export supply from Asia and the Americas. Furthermore, the behavior of the relative price of foreign importables in European cities should tell us which mattered most and when. We offer detailed evidence on the relative prices of such importables in European markets over the five centuries 1350-1850. We then offer a model which is used to decompose the sources of the trade boom 1500-1800.

Time dependent spectral modeling of Markarian 421 during a violent outburst in 2010

We present the results of extensive modeling of the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of the closest blazar (z=0.031) Markarian 421 (Mrk 421) during a giant outburst in February 2010. The source underwent rapid flux variations in both X-rays and very high energy (VHE) gamma-rays as it evolved from a low-flux state on 2010 February 13-15 to a high-flux state on 2010 February 17. During this period, the source exhibited significant spectral hardening from X-rays to VHE gamma-rays while exhibiting a "harder when brighter" behavior in these energy bands. We reproduce the broadband SED using a time-dependent multi-zone leptonic jet model with radiation feedback. We find that an injection of the leptonic particle population with a single power-law energy distribution at shock fronts followed by energy losses in an inhomogeneous emission region is suitable for explaining the evolution of Mrk 421 from low- to high-flux state in February 2010. The spectral states are successfully reproduced by a combination of a few key physical parameters, such as the maximum $\&$ minimum cutoffs and power-law slope of the electron injection energies, magnetic field strength, and bulk Lorentz factor of the emission region. The simulated light curves and spectral evolution of Mrk 421 during this period imply an almost linear correlation between X-ray flux at 1-10 keV energies and VHE gamma-ray flux above 200 GeV, as has been previously exhibited by this source. Through this study, a general trend that has emerged for the role of physical parameters is that, as the flare evolves from a low- to a high-flux state, higher bulk kinetic energy is injected into the system with a harder particle population and a lower magnetic field strength.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Facility design consideration for continuous mix production of class 1.3 propellant

In November of 1989, NASA awarded the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor (ASRM) contract to Lockheed Missiles and Space Company (LMSC) for production of advanced solid rocket motors using the continuous mix process. Aerojet ASRM division (AAD) was selected as the facility operator and RUST International Corporation provided the engineering, procurement, and construction management services. The continuous mix process mandates that the mix and cast facilities be 'close-coupled' along with the premix facilities, creating unique and challenging requirements for the facility designer. The classical approach to handling energetic materials-division into manageable quantities, segregation, and isolation-was not available due to these process requirements and quantities involved. This paper provides a description of the physical facilities, the continuous mix process, and discusses the monitoring and detection techniques used to mitigate hazards and prevent an incident

Consideration of permanent tidal deformation in the orbit determination and data analysis for the Topex/Poseidon mission

The effects of the permanent tidal effects of the Sun and Moon with specific applications to satellite altimeter data reduction are reviewed in the context of a consistent definition of geoid undulations. Three situations are applicable not only for altimeter reduction and geoid definition, but also for the second degree zonal harmonic of the geopotential and the equatorial radius. A recommendation is made that sea surface heights and geoid undulations placed on the Topex/Poseidon geophysical data record should be referred to the mean Earth case (i.e., with the permanent effects of the Sun and Moon included). Numerical constants for a number of parameters, including a flattening and geoid geopotential, are included

Comparing hospital and telephone follow-up after treatment for breast cancer: randomised equivalence trial

Objective To compare traditional hospital follow-up with telephone follow-up by specialist nurses after treatment for breast cancer. Design A two centre randomised equivalence trial in which women remained in the study for a mean of 24 months. Setting Outpatient clinics in two NHS hospital trusts in the north west of England Participants 374 women treated for breast cancer who were at low to moderate risk of recurrence. Interventions Participants were randomised to traditional hospital follow-up (consultation, clinical examination, and mammography as per hospital policy) or telephone follow-up by specialist nurses (consultation with structured intervention and mammography according to hospital policy). Main outcome measures Psychological morbidity (state-trait anxiety inventory, general health questionnaire (GHQ-12)), participants’ needs for information, participants’ satisfaction, clinical investigations ordered, and time to detection of recurrent disease. Results The 95% confidence interval for difference in mean state-trait scores adjusted for treatment received (−3.33 to 2.07) was within the predefined equivalence region (−3.5 to 3.5). The women in the telephone group were no more anxious as a result of foregoing clinic examinations and face-to-face consultations and reported higher levels of satisfaction than those attending hospital clinics (intention to treat P<0.001). The numbers of clinical investigations ordered did not differ between groups. Recurrences were few (4.5%), with no differences between groups for time to detection (median 60.5 (range 37-131) days in hospital group v 39.0 (10-152) days in telephone group; P=0.228). Conclusions Telephone follow-up was well received by participants, with no physical or psychological disadvantage. It is suitable for women at low to moderate risk of recurrence and those with long travelling distances or mobility problems and decreases the burden on busy hospital clinics

Anomalous Radio-Wave Scattering from Interstellar Plasma Structures

This paper considers scattering screens that have arbitrary spatial variations of scattering strength transverse to the line of sight, including screens that are spatially well confined, such as disks and filaments. We calculate the scattered image of a point source and the observed pulse shape of a scattered impulse. The consequences of screen confinement include: (1) Source image shapes that are determined by the physical extent of the screen rather than by the shapes of much-smaller diffracting microirregularities. These include image elongations and orientations that are frequency dependent. (2) Variation with frequency of angular broadening that is much weaker than the trademark \nu^{-2} scaling law (for a cold, unmagnetized plasma), including frequency-independent cases; and (3) Similar departure of the pulse broadening time from the usually expected \nu^{-4} scaling law. We briefly discuss applications that include scattering of pulses from the Crab pulsar by filaments in the Crab Nebula; image asymmetries from Galactic scattering of the sources Cyg X-3, Sgr A*, and NGC 6334B; and scattering of background active galactic nuclei by intervening galaxies. We also address the consequences for inferences about the shape of the wavenumber spectrum of electron density irregularities, which depend on scaling laws for the image size and the pulse broadening. Future low-frequency (< 100 MHz) array observations will also be strongly affected by the Galactic structure of scattering material. Our formalism is derived in the context of radio scattering by plasma density fluctuations. It is also applicable to optical, UV and X-ray scattering by grains in the interstellar medium.Comment: 21 pages, LaTeX2e with AASTeX-4.0, 6 PostScript figures, accepted by ApJ, revised version has minor changes to respond to referee comments and suggestion

DRUG-NEM: Optimizing drug combinations using single-cell perturbation response to account for intratumoral heterogeneity.

An individual malignant tumor is composed of a heterogeneous collection of single cells with distinct molecular and phenotypic features, a phenomenon termed intratumoral heterogeneity. Intratumoral heterogeneity poses challenges for cancer treatment, motivating the need for combination therapies. Single-cell technologies are now available to guide effective drug combinations by accounting for intratumoral heterogeneity through the analysis of the signaling perturbations of an individual tumor sample screened by a drug panel. In particular, Mass Cytometry Time-of-Flight (CyTOF) is a high-throughput single-cell technology that enables the simultaneous measurements of multiple ([Formula: see text]40) intracellular and surface markers at the level of single cells for hundreds of thousands of cells in a sample. We developed a computational framework, entitled Drug Nested Effects Models (DRUG-NEM), to analyze CyTOF single-drug perturbation data for the purpose of individualizing drug combinations. DRUG-NEM optimizes drug combinations by choosing the minimum number of drugs that produce the maximal desired intracellular effects based on nested effects modeling. We demonstrate the performance of DRUG-NEM using single-cell drug perturbation data from tumor cell lines and primary leukemia samples

Genetic Diversity of PCR-Positive, Culture-Negative and Culture-Positive Mycobacterium ulcerans Isolated from Buruli Ulcer Patients in Ghana.

Culture of Mycobacterium ulcerans from Buruli ulcer patients has very low sensitivity. Thus confirmation of M. ulcerans infection is primarily based on PCR directed against IS2404. In this study we compare the genotypes obtained by variable number of tandem repeat analysis of DNA from IS2404-PCR positive cultures with that obtained from IS2404 positive, culture-negative tissue. A significantly greater genetic heterogeneity was found among culture-negative samples compared with that found in cultured strains but a single genotype is over-represented in both sample sets. This study provides evidence that both the focal location of bacteria in a lesion as well as differences in the ability to culture a particular genotype may underlie the low sensitivity of culture. Though preliminary, data from this work also suggests that mycobacteria previously associated with fish disease (M. pseudoshottsii) may be pathogenic for humans