Methods and contexts: Challenges of planning with scenarios in a hospital's division

Scenario planning is presented as a well-suited approach in uncertain environments such as healthcare systems. In this article, we report a project aimed at defining scenarios in the cancer division of a large hospital. The approach chosen was based on La Prospective school of scenario planning. The project stopped before scenarios could be elaborated, for lack of knowledge available on contextual factors influencing the system. From the analysis of this case study, we elaborate on the adequacy of scenario planning in the context of small healthcare delivery organisations. We conclude that most forms of scenario planning are unlikely to work in these cases, especially in the La Prospective approach. Perspectives are drawn for scenario planning in hospitals, and for research on the fit between scenario approaches and application contexts, in order to understand what approaches work in which circumstances

The factor structure of the mood disorder questionnaire in Tunisian patients

Background: The Mood Disorder Questionnaire (MDQ) is a frequently used screening tool for the early detection of Bipolar Disorder (BD), which is often unrecognized or misdiagnosed at its onset. In this study, data from Tunisia has been used to evaluate the psychometric properties of the Arabic MDQ. Methods: The sample included 151 patients with a current major depressive episode. The Arabic adapted version of the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-TR was used to formulate a diagnosis, yielding 62 patients with BD and 89 with unipolar Major Depressive Disorder (MDD). Principal component analysis with parallel analysis was used to establish the spontaneous distribution of the 13 core items of the MDQ. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was used to check the available factor models. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to assess the capacity of the MDQ to distinguish patients with BD from those with MDD. Results: Cronbach’s α in the sample was 0.80 (95%CI: 0.75 to 0.85). Ordinal α was 0.88. Parallel analysis suggested two main components, which explained 59% of variance in the data. CFA found a good fit for the existing unidimensional, the two-factor, and the three-factor models. ROC analysis showed that at a threshold of 7, the MDQ was able to distinguish patients with BD from those with MDD with extraordinary negative predictive value (0.92) and a positive diagnostic likelihood ratio of 3.8. Conclusion: The Arabic version of the MDQ showed good measurement properties in terms of reliability, factorial validity and discriminative properties

Accuracy of the Arabic HCL - 32 and MDQ in detecting patients with bipolar disorder

BACKGROUND: Studies about the two most used and validated instruments for the early detection of Bipolar Disorder (BD), the 32 - item Hypomania Checklist (HCL - 32) and the Mood Disorder Questionnaire (MDQ), are scarce in non-Western countries. This study aimed to explore the reliability, factor structure, and criterion validity of their Arabic versions in a sample of Tunisian patients diagnosed with mood disorders. METHODS: The sample included 59 patients with BD, 86 with unipolar Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and 281 controls. Confirmatory factor analysis was applied to show that a single global score was an appropriate summary measure of the screeners in the sample. Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was used to assess the capacity of the translated screeners to distinguish patients with BD from those with MDD and controls. RESULTS: Reliability was good for both tools in all samples. The bifactor implementation of the most reported two-factor model had the best fit for both screeners. Both were able to distinguish patients diagnosed with BD from putatively healthy controls, and equally able to distinguish patients diagnosed with BD from patients with MDD. CONCLUSION: Both screeners work best in excluding the presence of BD in patients with MDD, which is an advantage in deciding whether or not to prescribe an antidepressant. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12888-023-04529-x

Accuracy of the Arabic HCL - 32 and MDQ in detecting patients with bipolar disorder

Background: Studies about the two most used and validated instruments for the early detection of Bipolar Disorder (BD), the 32 - item Hypomania Checklist (HCL - 32) and the Mood Disorder Questionnaire (MDQ), are scarce in non-Western countries. This study aimed to explore the reliability, factor structure, and criterion validity of their Arabic versions in a sample of Tunisian patients diagnosed with mood disorders. Methods: The sample included 59 patients with BD, 86 with unipolar Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and 281 controls. Confirmatory factor analysis was applied to show that a single global score was an appropriate summary measure of the screeners in the sample. Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was used to assess the capacity of the translated screeners to distinguish patients with BD from those with MDD and controls. Results: Reliability was good for both tools in all samples. The bifactor implementation of the most reported two-factor model had the best fit for both screeners. Both were able to distinguish patients diagnosed with BD from putatively healthy controls, and equally able to distinguish patients diagnosed with BD from patients with MDD. Conclusion: Both screeners work best in excluding the presence of BD in patients with MDD, which is an advantage in deciding whether or not to prescribe an antidepressant

Set optimization - a rather short introduction

Recent developments in set optimization are surveyed and extended including various set relations as well as fundamental constructions of a convex analysis for set- and vector-valued functions, and duality for set optimization problems. Extensive sections with bibliographical comments summarize the state of the art. Applications to vector optimization and financial risk measures are discussed along with algorithmic approaches to set optimization problems

Characterization of CTX-M ESBLs in Enterobacter cloacae, Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae clinical isolates from Cairo, Egypt

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A high rate of resistance to 3^rdgeneration cephalosporins among Enterobacteriaceae isolates from Egypt has been previously reported. This study aims to characterize the resistance mechanism (s) to extended spectrum cephalosporins among resistant clinical isolates at a medical institute in Cairo, Egypt.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Nonconsecutive <it>Klebsiella pneumoniae </it>(Kp), <it>Enterobacter cloacae </it>(ENT) and <it>Escherichia coli </it>(EC) isolates were obtained from the clinical laboratory at the medical institute. Antibiotic susceptibility was tested by CLSI disk diffusion and ESBL confirmatory tests. MICs were determined using broth microdilution. Isoelectric focusing (IEF) was used to determine the pI values, inhibitor profiles, and cefotaxime (CTX) hydrolysis by the β-lactamases. PCR and sequencing were performed using <it>bla</it>_CTX-Mand IS<it>Ecp1</it>-specific primers, with DNA obtained from the clinical isolates. Conjugation experiments were done to determine the mobility of <it>bla</it>_CTX-M.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All five clinical isolates were resistant to CTX, and were positive for ESBL screening. IEF revealed multiple β-lactamases produced by each isolate, including a β-lactamase with a pI of 8.0 in Kp and ENT and a β-lactamase with a pI of 9.0 in EC. Both β-lactamases were inhibited by clavulanic acid and hydrolyzed CTX. PCR and sequence analysis identified <it>bla</it>_CTX-M-14in Kp and ENT and a <it>bla</it>_CTX-M-15in EC. Both <it>bla</it>_CTX-M-14and <it>bla</it>_CTX-M-15were preceded by IS<it>Ecp1 </it>elements as revealed by partial sequence analysis of the upstream region of the <it>bla</it>_CTX-Mgenes. <it>bla</it>_CTX-M-15 was transferable but not <it>bla</it>_CTX-M-14.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This is the first report of CTX-M-14 in Kp and ENT isolates from Egypt, the Middle East and North Africa.</p

On the Existence of Shadow Prices

For utility maximization problems under proportional transaction costs, it has been observed that the original market with transaction costs can sometimes be replaced by a frictionless "shadow market" that yields the same optimal strategy and utility. However, the question of whether or not this indeed holds in generality has remained elusive so far. In this paper we present a counterexample which shows that shadow prices may fail to exist. On the other hand, we prove that short selling constraints are a sufficient condition to warrant their existence, even in very general multi-currency market models with possibly discontinuous bid-ask-spreads.Comment: 14 pages, 1 figure, to appear in "Finance and Stochastics

Eliciting Dirichlet and Gaussian copula prior distributions for multinomial models

In this paper, we propose novel methods of quantifying expert opinion about prior distributions for multinomial models. Two different multivariate priors are elicited using median and quartile assessments of the multinomial probabilities. First, we start by eliciting a univariate beta distribution for the probability of each category. Then we elicit the hyperparameters of the Dirichlet distribution, as a tractable conjugate prior, from those of the univariate betas through various forms of reconciliation using least-squares techniques. However, a multivariate copula function will give a more flexible correlation structure between multinomial parameters if it is used as their multivariate prior distribution. So, second, we use beta marginal distributions to construct a Gaussian copula as a multivariate normal distribution function that binds these marginals and expresses the dependence structure between them. The proposed method elicits a positive-definite correlation matrix of this Gaussian copula. The two proposed methods are designed to be used through interactive graphical software written in Java

Optimal Reinsurance with One Insurer and Multiple Reinsurers

In this paper, we consider a one-period optimal reinsurance design model with n reinsurers and an insurer. For very general preferences of the insurer, we obtain that there exists a very intuitive pricing formula for all reinsurers that use a distortion premium principle. The insurer determines its optimal risk that it wants to reinsure via this pricing formula. This risk it wants to reinsure is then shared by the reinsurers via tranching. The optimal ceded loss functions among multiple reinsurers are derived explicitly under the additional assumptions that the insurer’s preferences are given by an inverse-S shaped distortion risk measure and that the reinsurer’s premium principles are some functions of the Conditional Value-at-Risk. We also demonstrate that under some prescribed conditions, it is never optimal for the insurer to cede its risk to more than two reinsurers