Implementing a Reconciliation and Balancing Model in the U.s. Industry Accounts

As part of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ integration initiative (Yuskavage, 2000; Moyer et al., 2004a, 2004b; Lawson et al., 2006), the Industry Accounts Directorate is drawing upon the Stone method (Stone et al., 1942) and Chen (2006) to reconcile the gross operating surplus component of value-added from the 2002 expenditure-based benchmark input-output accounts and the 2002 income-based gross domestic product-by-industry accounts. The objective of the reconciliation is to use information regarding the relative reliabilities of underlying data in both the benchmark input-output use table and the gross domestic product-by-industry accounts in a balanced input-output framework in order to improve intermediate input estimates and gross operating surplus estimates in both accounts. Given a balanced input-output framework, the Stone method also provides a tool for balancing the benchmark use table. This paper presents work by the Industry Accounts Directorate to develop and implement the reconciliation and balancing model. The paper provides overviews of the benchmark use table and gross domestic product-by-industry accounts, including features of external source data and adjustment methodologies that are relevant for the reconciliation. In addition, the paper presents the empirical model that the Industry Accounts Directorate is building and briefly describes the technology used to solve the model. Preliminary work during development of the model shows that reconciling and balancing a large system with disaggregated data is computationally feasible and efficient in pursuit of an economically accurate and reliable benchmark use table and gross domestic product-by-industry accounts.

The Kepler Follow-up Observation Program

The Kepler Mission was launched on March 6, 2009 to perform a photometric survey of more than 100,000 dwarf stars to search for terrestrial-size planets with the transit technique. Follow-up observations of planetary candidates identified by detection of transit-like events are needed both for identification of astrophysical phenomena that mimic planetary transits and for characterization of the true planets and planetary systems found by Kepler. We have developed techniques and protocols for detection of false planetary transits and are currently conducting observations on 177 Kepler targets that have been selected for follow-up. A preliminary estimate indicates that between 24% and 62% of planetary candidates selected for follow-up will turn out to be true planets.Comment: 12 pages, submitted to the Astrophysical Journal Letter

Kepler-4B: A Hot Neptune-Like Planet of A G0 Star Near Main-Sequence Turnoff

Early time-series photometry from NASA's Kepler spacecraft has revealed a planet transiting the star we term Kepler-4, at R.A. = 19(h)02(m)27.(s)68, delta = +50 degrees 08'08 '' 7. The planet has an orbital period of 3.213 days and shows transits with a relative depth of 0.87 x 10(-3) and a duration of about 3.95 hr. Radial velocity (RV) measurements from the Keck High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer show a reflex Doppler signal of 9.3(-1.9)(+1.1) m s(-1), consistent with a low-eccentricity orbit with the phase expected from the transits. Various tests show no evidence for any companion star near enough to affect the light curve or the RVs for this system. From a transit-based estimate of the host star's mean density, combined with analysis of high-resolution spectra, we infer that the host star is near turnoff from the main sequence, with estimated mass and radius of 1.223(-0.091)(+0.053) M(circle dot) and 1.487(-0.084)(+0.071) R(circle dot).We estimate the planet mass and radius to be {M(P), R(P)} = {24.5 +/- 3.8 M(circle plus), 3.99 +/- 0.21 R(circle plus)}. The planet's density is near 1.9 g cm(-3); it is thus slightly denser and more massive than Neptune, but about the same size.W. M. Keck FoundationNASA's Science Mission DirectorateAstronom

Kepler-7b: A Transiting Planet with Unusually Low Density

We report the discovery and confirmation of Kepler-7b, a transiting planet with unusually low density. The mass is less than half that of Jupiter, Mp = 0.43 Mj, but the radius is fifty percent larger, Rp = 1.48 Rj. The resulting density, 0.17 g/cc, is the second lowest reported so far for an extrasolar planet. The orbital period is fairly long, P = 4.886 days, and the host star is not much hotter than the Sun, Teff = 6000 K. However, it is more massive and considerably larger than the sun, Mstar = 1.35 Msun and Rstar = 1.84 Rsun, and must be near the end of its life on the Main Sequence.Comment: 19 pages, 3 figure

Kepler Observations of Transiting Hot Compact Objects

Kepler photometry has revealed two unusual transiting companions orbiting an early A-star and a late B-star. In both cases the occultation of the companion is deeper than the transit. The occultation and transit with follow-up optical spectroscopy reveal a 9400 K early A-star, KOI-74 (KIC 6889235), with a companion in a 5.2 day orbit with a radius of 0.08 Rsun and a 10000 K late B-star KOI-81 (KIC 8823868) that has a companion in a 24 day orbit with a radius of 0.2 Rsun. We infer a temperature of 12250 K for KOI-74b and 13500 K for KOI-81b. We present 43 days of high duty cycle, 30 minute cadence photometry, with models demonstrating the intriguing properties of these object, and speculate on their nature.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures, submitted to ApJL (updated to correct KOI74 lightcurve

A Transiting Hot Jupiter Orbiting a Metal-Rich Star

We announce the discovery of Kepler-6b, a transiting hot Jupiter orbiting a star with unusually high metallicity, [Fe/H] = +0.34 +/- 0.04. The planet's mass is about 2/3 that of Jupiter, Mp = 0.67 Mj, and the radius is thirty percent larger than that of Jupiter, Rp = 1.32 Rj, resulting in a density of 0.35 g/cc, a fairly typical value for such a planet. The orbital period is P = 3.235 days. The host star is both more massive than the Sun, Mstar = 1.21 Msun, and larger than the Sun, Rstar = 1.39 Rsun.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures, submitted to the Astrophysical Journal Letter

Discovery of the Transiting Planet Kepler-5B

We present 44 days of high duty cycle, ultra precise photometry of the 13th magnitude star Kepler-5 (KIC 8191672, T(eff) = 6300 K, log g = 4.1), which exhibits periodic transits with a depth of 0.7%. Detailed modeling of the transit is consistent with a planetary companion with an orbital period of 3.548460 +/- 0.000032 days and a radius of 1.431(-0.052)(+0.041) R(J). Follow-up radial velocity measurements with the Keck HIRES spectrograph on nine separate nights demonstrate that the planet is more than twice as massive as Jupiter with a mass of 2.114(-0.059)(+0.056) M(J) and a mean density of 0.894 +/- 0.079 g cm(-3).NASA's Science Mission DirectorateAstronom

KOI-54: The Kepler Discovery of Tidally Excited Pulsations and Brightenings in a Highly Eccentric Binary

Kepler observations of the star HD 187091 (KIC 8112039, hereafter KOI-54) revealed a remarkable light curve exhibiting sharp periodic brightening events every 41.8 days with a superimposed set of oscillations forming a beating pattern in phase with the brightenings. Spectroscopic observations revealed that this is a binary star with a highly eccentric orbit, e = 0.83. We are able to match the Kepler light curve and radial velocities with a nearly face-on (i = 5 degrees.5) binary star model in which the brightening events are caused by tidal distortion and irradiation of nearly identical A stars during their close periastron passage. The two dominant oscillations in the light curve, responsible for the beating pattern, have frequencies that are the 91st and 90th harmonic of the orbital frequency. The power spectrum of the light curve, after removing the binary star brightening component, reveals a large number of pulsations, 30 of which have a signal-to-noise ratio greater than or similar to 7. Nearly all of these pulsations have frequencies that are either integer multiples of the orbital frequency or are tidally split multiples of the orbital frequency. This pattern of frequencies unambiguously establishes the pulsations as resonances between the dynamic tides at periastron and the free oscillation modes of one or both of the stars. KOI-54 is only the fourth star to show such a phenomenon and is by far the richest in terms of excited modes.NASA, Science Mission DirectorateNASA NNX08AR14GEuropean Research Council under the European Community 227224W.M. Keck FoundationMcDonald Observator

Modeling Kepler transit light curves as false positives: Rejection of blend scenarios for Kepler-9, and validation of Kepler-9d, a super-Earth-size planet in a multiple system

Light curves from the Kepler Mission contain valuable information on the nature of the phenomena producing the transit-like signals. To assist in exploring the possibility that they are due to an astrophysical false positive, we describe a procedure (BLENDER) to model the photometry in terms of a "blend" rather than a planet orbiting a star. A blend may consist of a background or foreground eclipsing binary (or star-planet pair) whose eclipses are attenuated by the light of the candidate and possibly other stars within the photometric aperture. We apply BLENDER to the case of Kepler-9, a target harboring two previously confirmed Saturn-size planets (Kepler-9b and Kepler-9c) showing transit timing variations, and an additional shallower signal with a 1.59-day period suggesting the presence of a super-Earth-size planet. Using BLENDER together with constraints from other follow-up observations we are able to rule out all blends for the two deeper signals, and provide independent validation of their planetary nature. For the shallower signal we rule out a large fraction of the false positives that might mimic the transits. The false alarm rate for remaining blends depends in part (and inversely) on the unknown frequency of small-size planets. Based on several realistic estimates of this frequency we conclude with very high confidence that this small signal is due to a super-Earth-size planet (Kepler-9d) in a multiple system, rather than a false positive. The radius is determined to be 1.64 (+0.19/-0.14) R(Earth), and current spectroscopic observations are as yet insufficient to establish its mass.Comment: 20 pages in emulateapj format, including 8 tables and 16 figures. To appear in ApJ, 1 January 2010. Accepted versio

A First Comparison of Kepler Planet Candidates in Single and Multiple Systems

In this letter we present an overview of the rich population of systems with multiple candidate transiting planets found in the first four months of Kepler data. The census of multiples includes 115 targets that show 2 candidate planets, 45 with 3, 8 with 4, and 1 each with 5 and 6, for a total of 170 systems with 408 candidates. When compared to the 827 systems with only one candidate, the multiples account for 17 percent of the total number of systems, and a third of all the planet candidates. We compare the characteristics of candidates found in multiples with those found in singles. False positives due to eclipsing binaries are much less common for the multiples, as expected. Singles and multiples are both dominated by planets smaller than Neptune; 69 +2/-3 percent for singles and 86 +2/-5 percent for multiples. This result, that systems with multiple transiting planets are less likely to include a transiting giant planet, suggests that close-in giant planets tend to disrupt the orbital inclinations of small planets in flat systems, or maybe even to prevent the formation of such systems in the first place.Comment: 13 pages, 13 figures, submitted to ApJ Letter