A new data assimilation procedure to develop a debris flow run-out model

Abstract Parameter calibration is one of the most problematic phases of numerical modeling since the choice of parameters affects the model\u2019s reliability as far as the physical problems being studied are concerned. In some cases, laboratory tests or physical models evaluating model parameters cannot be completed and other strategies must be adopted; numerical models reproducing debris flow propagation are one of these. Since scale problems affect the reproduction of real debris flows in the laboratory or specific tests used to determine rheological parameters, calibration is usually carried out by comparing in a subjective way only a few parameters, such as the heights of soil deposits calculated for some sections of the debris flows or the distance traveled by the debris flows using the values detected in situ after an event has occurred. Since no automatic or objective procedure has as yet been produced, this paper presents a numerical procedure based on the application of a statistical algorithm, which makes it possible to define, without ambiguities, the best parameter set. The procedure has been applied to a study case for which digital elevation models of both before and after an important event exist, implicating that a good database for applying the method was available. Its application has uncovered insights to better understand debris flows and related phenomena

The gluon contribution to the polarized structure function g2g_2

We compute the structure function $g_2$ for a gluon target in perturbative QCD at order \as. We show that its first moment vanishes, as predicted by the Burkhardt-Cottingham sum rule.Comment: 9 pages Latex, uses epsfig.sty, 1 eps figure include

Who benefits from reducing the cost of formality? Quantile regression discontinuity analysis

This chapter studies the effect of increasing formality via tax reduction and simplification schemes on micro-firm performance. We develop a simple theoretical model that yields two intuitive results. First, low- and high-ability entrepreneurs are unlikely to be affected by a tax reduction and therefore, the reduction has an impact only on a segment of the microfirm population. Second, the benefits to such reduction, as measured by profits and revenues, are increasing in the entrepreneur's ability. Then, we estimate the effect of formality on the entire conditional distribution (quantiles) of revenues using the 1996 Brazilian SIMPLES program and a rich survey of formal and informal micro-firms. The econometric approach compares eligible and non-eligible firms, born before and after SIMPLES in a local interval about the introduction of SIMPLES. We develop an estimator that combines both quantile regression and the regression discontinuity design. The econometric results corroborate the positive effect of formality on micro-firms' performance and produce a clear characterization of who benefits from these programs

Federico Cesi's Mycological Codex and its copies

n/

Altered Resting-State Functional Connectivity of the Frontal-Striatal Reward System in Social Anxiety Disorder

We investigated differences in the intrinsic functional brain organization (functional connectivity) of the human reward system between healthy control participants and patients with social anxiety disorder. Functional connectivity was measured in the resting-state via functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). 53 patients with social anxiety disorder and 33 healthy control participants underwent a 6-minute resting-state fMRI scan. Functional connectivity of the reward system was analyzed by calculating whole-brain temporal correlations with a bilateral nucleus accumbens seed and a ventromedial prefrontal cortex seed. Patients with social anxiety disorder, relative to the control group, had (1) decreased functional connectivity between the nucleus accumbens seed and other regions associated with reward, including ventromedial prefrontal cortex; (2) decreased functional connectivity between the ventromedial prefrontal cortex seed and lateral prefrontal regions, including the anterior and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices; and (3) increased functional connectivity between both the nucleus accumbens seed and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex seed with more posterior brain regions, including anterior cingulate cortex. Social anxiety disorder appears to be associated with widespread differences in the functional connectivity of the reward system, including markedly decreased functional connectivity between reward regions and between reward regions and lateral prefrontal cortices, and markedly increased functional connectivity between reward regions and posterior brain regions.Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Janet and Sheldon Razin Fellowship

Self-Perceived Loneliness and Depression During the COVID-19 Pandemic: a Two-Wave Replication Study

COVID-19 studies to date have documented some of the initial health consequences of lockdown restrictions adopted by many countries. Combining a data-driven machine learning paradigm and a statistical analysis approach, our previous paper documented a U-shape pattern in levels of self-perceived loneliness in both the UK and Greek populations during the first lockdown (17 April to 17 July 2020). The current paper aimed to test the robustness of these results. Specifically, we tested a) for the dependence of the chosen model by adopting a new one - namely, support vector regressor (SVR). Furthermore, b) whether the patterns of self-perceived loneliness found in data from the first UK national lockdown could be generalizable to the second wave of the UK lockdown (17 October 2020 to 31 January 2021). The first part of the study involved training an SVR model on the 75% of the UK dataset from wave 1 (n total = 435). This SVR model was then tested on the remaining 25% of data (MSE training = 2.04; MSE test = 2.29), which resulted in depressive symptoms to be the most important variable - followed by self-perceived loneliness. Statistical analysis of depressive symptoms by week of lockdown resulted in a significant U-shape pattern between week 3 to 7 of lockdown. In the second part of the study, data from wave 2 of the UK lockdown (n = 263) was used to conduct a graphical and statistical inspection of the week-by-week distribution of scores regarding self-perceived loneliness. Despite a graphical U-shaped pattern between week 3 and 9 of lockdown, levels of loneliness were not between weeks of lockdown. Consistent with past studies, study findings suggest that self-perceived loneliness and depressive symptoms may be two of the most relevant symptoms to address when imposing lockdown restrictions

I’m alone but not lonely. U-shaped pattern of perceived loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK and Greece

Many countries have adopted lengthy lockdown measures to mitigate the spreading of the COVID-19 virus. In this study, we train a RandomForest model using 10 variables quantifying individuals’ living environment, physical and mental health statuses to predict how long each of the UK participants (N=382) had been in lockdown. Self-perceived loneliness was found to be the most important variable predicting time in lockdown and, therefore, the aspect most influenced by the time the participant spent in lockdown. Subsequent statistical analysis showed a significant U-shaped curve for the levels of perceived loneliness (p<0.012), specifically decreasing during the 4th and 5th lockdown weeks. The same pattern was found on data from Greek citizens (N=129, p<0.041). These results suggest that lockdown measures may have affected how people evaluated their social support while in lockdown, leading to a decreased sense of loneliness. Implications of this study should be reflected on policies and countermeasures to current and future pandemics. State of relevance This study aims to inform policies for the current and/or future pandemics, particularly those involving lockdown restrictions. It highlights that self-perceived loneliness was the trait most affected by the time spent in lockdown: data show that the very first period of lockdown was characterised by a decrease in levels of perceived loneliness. The machine learning approach adopted and the statistical validation on two different Western European countries ensure that the uncovered pattern is substantial. This result highlights the dissociation between objective social support and perceived loneliness: initially, restrictions may have triggered better social behaviours among communities or increased the level of gratitude for the social support people have always received. The short duration of these desirable effects suggests that measures and campaigns promoting better social support strategies could be potentially effective, even in social isolation, to keep the levels of perceived loneliness low. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Funding Statement This research is supported by Nanyang Technological University (Singapore) under the NAP-SUG grant (G.E.). Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: Ethical approval for the COVID-19 Social Study was granted by the UCL Ethics Committee (REC 1331). The study is GDPR compliant. All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Ye

Functional network antagonism and consciousness

Spontaneous brain activity changes across states of consciousness. A particular consciousness-mediated configuration is the anticorrelations between the default mode network and other brain regions. What this antagonistic organization implies about consciousness to date remains inconclusive. In this Perspective Article, we propose that anticorrelations are the physiological expression of the concept of segregation, namely the brain’s capacity to show selectivity in the way areas will be functionally connected. We postulate that this effect is mediated by the process of neural inhibition, by regulating global and local inhibitory activity. While recognizing that this effect can also result from other mechanisms, neural inhibition helps the understanding of how network metastability is affected after disrupting local and global neural balance. In combination with relevant theories of consciousness, we suggest that anticorrelations are a physiological prior that can work as a marker of preserved consciousness. We predict that if the brain is not in a state to host anticorrelations, then most likely the individual does not entertain subjective experience. We believe that this link between anticorrelations and the underlying physiology will help not only to comprehend how consciousness happens, but also conceptualize effective interventions for treating consciousness disorders in which anticorrelations seem particularly affected