Assessing Controls on Ice Dynamics at Crane Glacier, Antarctic Peninsula, Using a Numerical Ice Flow Model

The Antarctic Peninsula\u27s widespread glacier retreat and ice shelf collapse have been attributed to atmospheric and oceanic warming. Following the initial post-collapse period of retreat, several former tributary glaciers of the Larsen A and B ice shelves have been slowly re-advancing for more than a decade. Here, we use a flowline model of Crane Glacier to gauge the sensitivity of former tributary glaciers to future climate change following this period of long-term dynamic adjustment. The glacier\u27s long-term geometry and speed changes are similar to those of other former Larsen A and B tributaries, suggesting that Crane Glacier is a reasonable representation of regional dynamics. For the unperturbed climate simulations, discharge remains nearly unchanged in 2018–2100, indicating that dynamic readjustment to shelf collapse took ~15 years. Despite large uncertainties in Crane Glacier\u27s past and future climate forcing, a wide range of future climate scenarios leads to a relatively modest range in grounding line discharge (0.8–1.5 Gt a−1) by 2100. Based on the model results for Crane, we infer that although former ice shelf tributaries may readvance following collapse, similar to the tidewater glacier cycle, their dynamic response to future climate perturbations should be less than their response to ice shelf collapse

Future Evolution of Greenland\u27s Marine-Terminating Outlet Glaciers

Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has increased over the last two decades in response to changes in global climate, motivating the scientific community to question how the GrIS will contribute to sea-level rise on timescales that are relevant to coastal communities. Observations also indicate that the impact of a melting GrIS extends beyond sea-level rise, including changes to ocean properties and circulation, nutrient and sediment cycling, and ecosystem function. Unfortunately, despite the rapid growth of interest in GrIS mass loss and its impacts, we still lack the ability to confidently predict the rate of future mass loss and the full impacts of this mass loss on the globe. Uncertainty in GrIS mass loss projections in part stems from the nonlinear response of the ice sheet to climate forcing, with many processes at play that influence how mass is lost. This is particularly true for outlet glaciers in Greenland that terminate in the ocean because their flow is strongly controlled by multiple processes that alter their boundary conditions at the ice-atmosphere, ice-ocean, and ice-bed interfaces. Many of these processes change on a range of overlapping timescales and are challenging to observe, making them difficult to understand and thus missing in prognostic ice sheet/climate models. For example, recent (beginning in the late 1990s) mass loss via outlet glaciers has been attributed primarily to changing ice-ocean interactions, driven by both oceanic and atmospheric warming, but the exact mechanisms controlling the onset of glacier retreat and the processes that regulate the amount of retreat remain uncertain. Here we review the progress in understanding GrIS outlet glacier sensitivity to climate change, how mass loss has changed over time, and how our understanding has evolved as observational capacity expanded. Although many processes are far better understood than they were even a decade ago, fundamental gaps in our understanding of certain processes remain. These gaps impede our ability to understand past changes in dynamics and to make more accurate mass loss projections under future climate change. As such, there is a pressing need for (1) improved, long-term observations at the ice-ocean and ice-bed boundaries, (2) more observationally constrained numerical ice flow models that are coupled to atmosphere and ocean models, and (3) continued development of a collaborative and interdisciplinary scientific community

Ice mass change in Greenland and Antarctica between 1993 and 2013 from satellite gravity measurements

We construct long-term time series of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet mass change from satellite gravity measurements. A statistical reconstruction approach is developed based on a Principal Component Analysis to combine high-resolution spatial modes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission with the gravity information from conventional satellite track-ing data. Uncertainties of this reconstruction are rigorously assessed; they include temporal limitations for short GRACE measurements, spatial limitations for the low-resolution conventional tracking data measurements, and limitations of the estimated statistical relationships between low and high degree potential coe�cients re ected in the PCA modes. Trends of mass variations in Greenland and Antarctica are assessed against a number of previous studies. The resulting time series for Greenland show a higher rate of mass loss than other methods before 2000, while the Antarctic ice sheet appears heavily in uenced by interannual variations

Near-glacier surveying of a subglacial discharge plume: Implications for plume parameterizations

At tidewater glaciers, plume dynamics affect submarine melting, fjord circulation, and the mixing of meltwater. Models often rely on buoyant plume theory to parameterize plumes and submarine melting; however, these parameterizations are largely untested due to a dearth of near‐glacier measurements. Here we present a high‐resolution ocean survey by ship and remotely operated boat near the terminus of Kangerlussuup Sermia in west Greenland. These novel observations reveal the 3‐D structure and transport of a near‐surface plume, originating at a large undercut conduit in the glacier terminus, that is inconsistent with axisymmetric plume theory, the most common representation of plumes in ocean‐glacier models. Instead, the observations suggest a wider upwelling plume—a “truncated” line plume of ∼200 m width—with higher entrainment and plume‐driven melt compared to the typical axisymmetric representation. Our results highlight the importance of a subglacial outlet's geometry in controlling plume dynamics, with implications for parameterizing the exchange flow and submarine melt in glacial fjord models.NNX12AP50

Understanding teaching assistant self-efficacy in role and in training: its susceptibility to influence

There has been a noted growth in the number of teaching assistants (TAs) in mainstream schools (DfE, 2013a). Research is inconclusive about their efficacy at changing outcomes for children (Alborz et al 2009; Blatchford et al, 2009) and has proposed more training for TAs (Russell et al, 2005). Generic training models have suggested that enhancing self-efficacy in turn improves performance. This exploratory study investigated factors that may influence TAs’ sense of self-efficacy and its susceptibility to influence in training. Following two modes of mode of school-based training by Educational Psychologists (EPs) data were collected from 14 mainstream secondary school TAs using focus groups. A thematic analysis noted themes regarding self-efficacy, aligned with Bandura’s (1977) sources of information, outcome expectations and whole school support and norms. Review of the data is likely to be able to guide potential trainers to coach consult strategies which are self-efficacy supportive and which address contextual factors including the perceived status of TAs in schools

The impact of glacier geometry on meltwater plume structure and submarine melt in Greenland fjords

Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet often drains subglacially into fjords, driving upwelling plumes at glacier termini. Ocean models and observations of submarine termini suggest that plumes enhance melt and undercutting, leading to calving and potential glacier destabilization. Here we systematically evaluate how simulated plume structure and submarine melt during summer months depends on realistic ranges of subglacial discharge, glacier depth, and ocean stratification from 12 Greenland fjords. Our results show that grounding line depth is a strong control on plume-induced submarine melt: deep glaciers produce warm, salty subsurface plumes that undercut termini, and shallow glaciers produce cold, fresh surface-trapped plumes that can overcut termini. Due to sustained upwelling velocities, plumes in cold, shallow fjords can induce equivalent depth-averaged melt rates compared to warm, deep fjords. These results detail a direct ocean-ice feedback that can affect the Greenland Ice Sheet

Generation of a Convalescent Model of Virulent Francisella tularensis Infection for Assessment of Host Requirements for Survival of Tularemia

Francisella tularensis is a facultative intracellular bacterium and the causative agent of tularemia. Development of novel vaccines and therapeutics for tularemia has been hampered by the lack of understanding of which immune components are required to survive infection. Defining these requirements for protection against virulent F. tularensis, such as strain SchuS4, has been difficult since experimentally infected animals typically die within 5 days after exposure to as few as 10 bacteria. Such a short mean time to death typically precludes development, and therefore assessment, of immune responses directed against virulent F. tularensis. To enable identification of the components of the immune system that are required for survival of virulent F. tularensis, we developed a convalescent model of tularemia in C57Bl/6 mice using low dose antibiotic therapy in which the host immune response is ultimately responsible for clearance of the bacterium. Using this model we demonstrate αβTCR+ cells, γδTCR+ cells, and B cells are necessary to survive primary SchuS4 infection. Analysis of mice deficient in specific soluble mediators shows that IL-12p40 and IL-12p35 are essential for survival of SchuS4 infection. We also show that IFN-γ is required for survival of SchuS4 infection since mice lacking IFN-γR succumb to disease during the course of antibiotic therapy. Finally, we found that both CD4+ and CD8+ cells are the primary producers of IFN-γand that γδTCR+ cells and NK cells make a minimal contribution toward production of this cytokine throughout infection. Together these data provide a novel model that identifies key cells and cytokines required for survival or exacerbation of infection with virulent F. tularensis and provides evidence that this model will be a useful tool for better understanding the dynamics of tularemia infection

Extensive retreat of Greenland tidewater glaciers 2000-2010

Overall mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet nearly doubled during the early 2000s resulting in an increased contribution to sea-level rise, with this step-change being mainly attributed to the widespread frontal retreat and accompanying dynamic thinning of tidewater glaciers. Changes in glacier calving-front positions are easily derived from remotely sensed imagery and provide a record of dynamic change. However, ice-sheet-wide studies of calving fronts have been either spatially or temporally limited. In this study multiple calving-front positions were derived for 199 Greenland marine-terminating outlet glaciers with width greater than 1 km using Landsat imagery for the 11-year period 2000–2010 in order to identify regional seasonal and inter-annual variations. During this period, outlet glaciers were characterized by sustained and substantial retreat summing to more than 267 km, with only 11 glaciers showing overall advance. In general, the pattern of mass loss detected by GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) and other measurements is reflected in the calving record of Greenland glaciers. Our results suggest several regions in the south and east of the ice sheet likely share controls on their dynamic changes, but no simple single control is apparent

Greenland ice sheet surface mass loss: recent developments in observation and modeling

Surface processes currently dominate Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) mass loss. We review recent developments in the observation and modelling of GrIS surface mass balance (SMB), published after the July 2012 deadline for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). Since IPCC AR5 our understanding of GrIS SMB has further improved, but new observational and model studies have also revealed that temporal and spatial variability of many processes are still poorly quantified and understood, e.g. bio-albedo, the formation of ice lenses and their impact on lateral meltwater transport, heterogeneous vertical meltwater transport (‘piping’), the impact of atmospheric circulation changes and mixed-phase clouds on the surface energy balance and the magnitude of turbulent heat exchange over rough ice surfaces. As a result, these processes are only schematically or not at all included in models that are currently used to assess and predict future GrIS surface mass loss

Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change