Association between trial registration and positive study findings: cross sectional study (Epidemiological Study of Randomized Trials—ESORT)

Objective To assess whether randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that were registered were less likely to report positive study findings compared with RCTs that were not registered and whether the association varied by funding source. Design Cross sectional study. Study sample All primary RCTs published in December 2012 and indexed in PubMed by November 2013. Trial registration was determined based on the report of a trial registration number in published RCTs or the identification of the trial in a search of trial registries. Trials were separated into prospectively and retrospectively registered studies. Main outcome measure Association between trial registration and positive study findings. Results 1122 eligible RCTs were identified, of which 593 (52.9%) were registered and 529 (47.1%) were not registered. Overall, registration was marginally associated with positive study findings (adjusted risk ratio 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.98), even with stratification as prospectively and retrospectively registered trials (0.87, 0.74 to 1.03 and 0.88, 0.78 to 1.00, respectively). The interaction term between overall registration and funding source was marginally statistically significant and relative risk estimates were imprecise (0.75, 0.63 to 0.89 for non-industry funded and 1.03, 0.79 to 1.36 for industry funded, P interaction=0.046). Furthermore, a statistically significant interaction was not maintained in sensitivity analyses. Within each stratum of funding source, relative risk estimates were also imprecise for the association between positive study findings and prospective and retrospective registration. Conclusion Among published RCTs, there was little evidence of a difference in positive study findings between registered and non-registered clinical trials, even with stratification by timing of registration. Relative risk estimates were imprecise in subgroups of non-industry and industry funded trials

Rapid Assessment of Malaria Transmission Using Age-Specific Sero-Conversion Rates

BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission intensity is a crucial determinant of malarial disease burden and its measurement can help to define health priorities. Rapid, local estimates of transmission are required to focus resources better but current entomological and parasitological methods for estimating transmission intensity are limited in this respect. An alternative is determination of antimalarial antibody age-specific sero-prevalence to estimate sero-conversion rates (SCR), which have been shown to correlate with transmission intensity. This study evaluated SCR generated from samples collected from health facility attendees as a tool for a rapid assessment of malaria transmission intensity. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The study was conducted in north east Tanzania. Antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum merozoite antigens MSP-1(19) and AMA-1 were measured by indirect ELISA. Age-specific antibody prevalence was analysed using a catalytic conversion model based on maximum likelihood to generate SCR. A pilot study, conducted near Moshi, found SCRs for AMA-1 were highly comparable between samples collected from individuals in a conventional cross-sectional survey and those collected from attendees at a local health facility. For the main study, 3885 individuals attending village health facilities in Korogwe and Same districts were recruited. Both malaria parasite prevalence and sero-positivity were higher in Korogwe than in Same. MSP-1(19) and AMA-1 SCR rates for Korogwe villages ranged from 0.03 to 0.06 and 0.07 to 0.21 respectively. In Same district there was evidence of a recent reduction in transmission, with SCR among those born since 1998 [MSP-1(19) 0.002 to 0.008 and AMA-1 0.005 to 0.014 ] being 5 to 10 fold lower than among individuals born prior to 1998 [MSP-1(19) 0.02 to 0.04 and AMA-1 0.04 to 0.13]. Current health facility specific estimates of SCR showed good correlations with malaria incidence rates in infants in a contemporaneous clinical trial (MSP-1(19) r(2) = 0.78, p<0.01 & AMA-1 r(2) = 0.91, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: SCRs generated from age-specific anti-malarial antibody prevalence data collected via health facility surveys were robust and credible. Analysis of SCR allowed detection of a recent drop in malaria transmission in line with recent data from other areas in the region. This health facility-based approach represents a potential tool for rapid assessment of recent trends in malaria transmission intensity, generating valuable data for local and national malaria control programs to target, monitor and evaluate their control strategies

Serologically defined variations in malaria endemicity in Pará state, Brazil

BACKGROUND: Measurement of malaria endemicity is typically based on vector or parasite measures. A complementary approach is the detection of parasite specific IgG antibodies. We determined the antibody levels and seroconversion rates to both P. vivax and P. falciparum merozoite antigens in individuals living in areas of varying P. vivax endemicity in Pará state, Brazilian Amazon region. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The prevalence of antibodies to recombinant antigens from P. vivax and P. falciparum was determined in 1,330 individuals. Cross sectional surveys were conducted in the north of Brazil in Anajás, Belém, Goianésia do Pará, Jacareacanga, Itaituba, Trairão, all in the Pará state, and Sucuriju, a free-malaria site in the neighboring state Amapá. Seroprevalence to any P. vivax antigens (MSP1 or AMA-1) was 52.5%, whereas 24.7% of the individuals were seropositive to any P. falciparum antigens (MSP1 or AMA-1). For P. vivax antigens, the seroconversion rates (SCR) ranged from 0.005 (Sucuriju) to 0.201 (Goianésia do Pará), and are strongly correlated to the corresponding Annual Parasite Index (API). We detected two sites with distinct characteristics: Goianésia do Pará where seroprevalence curve does not change with age, and Sucuriju where seroprevalence curve is better described by a model with two SCRs compatible with a decrease in force of infection occurred 14 years ago (from 0.069 to 0.005). For P. falciparum antigens, current SCR estimates varied from 0.002 (Belém) to 0.018 (Goianésia do Pará). We also detected a putative decrease in disease transmission occurred ∼29 years ago in Anajás, Goianésia do Pará, Itaituba, Jacareacanga, and Trairão. CONCLUSIONS: We observed heterogeneity of serological indices across study sites with different endemicity levels and temporal changes in the force of infection in some of the sites. Our study provides further evidence that serology can be used to measure and monitor transmission of both major species of malaria parasite

Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase polymorphisms and susceptibility to mild malaria in Dogon and Fulani, Mali.

BACKGROUND: Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency is associated with protection from severe malaria, and potentially uncomplicated malaria phenotypes. It has been documented that G6PD deficiency in sub-Saharan Africa is due to the 202A/376G G6PD A-allele, and association studies have used genotyping as a convenient technique for epidemiological studies. However, recent studies have shown discrepancies in G6PD202/376 associations with severe malaria. There is evidence to suggest that other G6PD deficiency alleles may be common in some regions of West Africa, and that allelic heterogeneity could explain these discrepancies. METHODS: A cross-sectional epidemiological study of malaria susceptibility was conducted during 2006 and 2007 in the Sahel meso-endemic malaria zone of Mali. The study included Dogon (n = 375) and Fulani (n = 337) sympatric ethnic groups, where the latter group is characterized by lower susceptibility to Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Fifty-three G6PD polymorphisms, including 202/376, were genotyped across the 712 samples. Evidence of association of these G6PD polymorphisms and mild malaria was assessed in both ethnic groups using genotypic and haplotypic statistical tests. RESULTS: It was confirmed that the Fulani are less susceptible to malaria, and the 202A mutation is rare in this group (<1% versus Dogon 7.9%). The Betica-Selma 968C/376G (~11% enzymatic activity) was more common in Fulani (6.1% vs Dogon 0.0%). There are differences in haplotype frequencies between Dogon and Fulani, and association analysis did not reveal strong evidence of protective G6PD genetic effects against uncomplicated malaria in both ethnic groups and gender. However, there was some evidence of increased risk of mild malaria in Dogon with the 202A mutation, attaining borderline statistical significance in females. The rs915942 polymorphism was found to be associated with asymptomatic malaria in Dogon females, and the rs61042368 polymorphism was associated with clinical malaria in Fulani males. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the need to consider markers in addition to G6PD202 in studies of deficiency. Further, large genetic epidemiological studies of multi-ethnic groups in West Africa across a spectrum of malaria severity phenotypes are required to establish who receives protection from G6PD deficiency

Sero-epidemiological evaluation of changes in Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax transmission patterns over the rainy season in Cambodia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In Cambodia, malaria transmission is low and most cases occur in forested areas. Sero-epidemiological techniques can be used to identify both areas of ongoing transmission and high-risk groups to be targeted by control interventions. This study utilizes repeated cross-sectional data to assess the risk of being malaria sero-positive at two consecutive time points during the rainy season and investigates who is most likely to sero-convert over the transmission season.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In 2005, two cross-sectional surveys, one in the middle and the other at the end of the malaria transmission season, were carried out in two ecologically distinct regions in Cambodia. Parasitological and serological data were collected in four districts. Antibodies to <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>Glutamate Rich Protein (GLURP) and <it>Plasmodium vivax </it>Merozoite Surface Protein-1₁₉(MSP-1₁₉) were detected using Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). The force of infection was estimated using a simple catalytic model fitted using maximum likelihood methods. Risks for sero-converting during the rainy season were analysed using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 804 individuals participating in both surveys were analysed. The overall parasite prevalence was low (4.6% and 2.0% for <it>P. falciparum </it>and 7.9% and 6.0% for <it>P. vivax </it>in August and November respectively). <it>P. falciparum </it>force of infection was higher in the eastern region and increased between August and November, whilst <it>P. vivax </it>force of infection was higher in the western region and remained similar in both surveys. In the western region, malaria transmission changed very little across the season (for both species). CART analysis for <it>P. falciparum </it>in the east highlighted age, ethnicity, village of residence and forest work as important predictors for malaria exposure during the rainy season. Adults were more likely to increase their antibody responses to <it>P. falciparum </it>during the transmission season than children, whilst members of the Charay ethnic group demonstrated the largest increases.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>In areas of low transmission intensity, such as in Cambodia, the analysis of longitudinal serological data enables a sensitive evaluation of transmission dynamics. Consecutive serological surveys allow an insight into spatio-temporal patterns of malaria transmission. The use of CART enabled multiple interactions to be accounted for simultaneously and permitted risk factors for exposure to be clearly identified.</p

Clinical Trial of Oral Nelfinavir before and during Radiation Therapy for Advanced Rectal Cancer

Purpose Nelfinavir, a PI3-kinase pathway inhibitor, is a radiosensitizer which increases tumor blood flow in preclinical models. We conducted an early-phase study to demonstrate the safety of nelfinavir combined with hypofractionated radiotherapy (RT) and to develop biomarkers of tumor perfusion and radiosensitization for this combinatorial approach. Patients and Methods Ten patients with T3-4 N0-2 M1 rectal cancer received 7 days of oral nelfinavir (1250 mg bd) and a further 7 days of nelfinavir during pelvic RT (25 Gy/5 fractions/7 days). Perfusion CT (p-CT) and DCE-MRI scans were performed pre-treatment, after 7 days of nelfinavir and prior to last fraction of RT. Biopsies taken pre-treatment and 7 days after the last fraction of RT were analysed for tumor cell density (TCD). Results There were 3 drug-related grade 3 adverse events: diarrhea, rash, lymphopenia. On DCE-MRI, there was a mean 42% increase in median Ktrans, and a corresponding median 30% increase in mean blood flow on p-CT during RT in combination with nelfinavir. Median TCD decreased from 24.3% at baseline to 9.2% in biopsies taken 7 days after RT (P=0.01). Overall, 5/9 evaluable patients exhibited good tumor regression on MRI assessed by Tumor Regression Grade (mrTRG). Conclusions This is the first study to evaluate nelfinavir in combination with RT without concurrent chemotherapy. It has shown that nelfinavir-RT is well tolerated and is associated with increased blood flow to rectal tumors. The efficacy of nelfinavir-RT versus RT alone merits clinical evaluation, including measurement of tumor blood flow

Detecting Foci of Malaria Transmission with School Surveys: A Pilot Study in the Gambia.

BACKGROUND: In areas of declining malaria transmission such as in The Gambia, the identification of malaria infected individuals becomes increasingly harder. School surveys may be used to identify foci of malaria transmission in the community. METHODS: The survey was carried out in May-June 2011, before the beginning of the malaria transmission season. Thirty two schools in the Upper River Region of The Gambia were selected with probability proportional to size; in each school approximately 100 children were randomly chosen for inclusion in the study. Each child had a finger prick blood sample collected for the determination of antimalarial antibodies by ELISA, malaria infection by microscopy and PCR, and for haemoglobin measurement. In addition, a simple questionnaire on socio-demographic variables and the use of insecticide-treated bed nets was completed. The cut-off for positivity for antimalarial antibodies was obtained using finite mixture models. The clustered nature of the data was taken into account in the analyses. RESULTS: A total of 3,277 children were included in the survey. The mean age was 10 years (SD = 2.7) [range 4-21], with males and females evenly distributed. The prevalence of malaria infection as determined by PCR was 13.6% (426/3124) [95% CI = 12.2-16.3] with marked variation between schools (range 3-25%, p<0.001), while the seroprevalence was 7.8% (234/2994) [95%CI = 6.4-9.8] for MSP119, 11.6% (364/2997) [95%CI = 9.4-14.5] for MSP2, and 20.0% (593/2973) [95% CI = 16.5-23.2) for AMA1. The prevalence of all the three antimalarial antibodies positive was 2.7% (79/2920). CONCLUSIONS: This survey shows that malaria prevalence and seroprevalence before the transmission season were highly heterogeneous