Early transitions and tertiary enrolment: The cumulative impact of primary and secondary effects on entering university in Germany

Our aim is to assess how the number of working class students entering German universities can effectively be increased. Therefore, we estimate the proportion of students from the working class that would successfully enter university if certain policy interventions were in place to eliminate primary effects (performance differentials between social classes) and/or secondary effects (choice differentials net of performance) at different transition points. We extend previous research by analysing the sequence of transitions between elementary school enrolment and university enrolment and by accounting for the impact that manipulations at earlier transitions have on the performance distribution and size of the student ‘risk-set’ at subsequent transitions. To this end, we develop a novel simulation procedure which also seeks to find viable solutions to the shortcomings in the German data landscape. Our findings show that interventions are most effective if they take place early in the educational career. Neutralizing secondary effects at the transition to upper secondary school proves to be the single most effective means to increase participation rates in tertiary education among working class students. However, this comes at the expense of lower average performance levels. (DIPF/author

A multiplex nested-PCR assay for sensitive and simultaneous detection and direct identification of phytoplasma in the Elm yellows group and Stolbur group and its use in survey of grapevine yellows in France

Flavescence dorée and Bois noir (or Vergilbungskrankheit), are two main yellows diseases of grapevines in Europe. The two diseases cannot be distinguished on the basis of symptoms but they are associated with two different phytoplasmas which belong to the Elm yellows (16SrV) group and Stolbur (16SrXII) group, respectively. Their spreading areas are overlapping in France, Italy and Spain but they have different vector insects. Flavescence dorée is an epidemic disease and a quarantine organism. National surveys conducted annually in France require straightforward and sensitive assays to detect phytoplasma that sometimes occur in grapevine with a low titre and to characterize them readily. A bi-specific multiplex nested-PCR procedure was developed, to amplify simultaneously two non-ribosomal DNA fragments, 1150 bp and 720 bp in length, specific for Elm yellows-group and Stolbur-group phytoplasmas, respectively. They were identified using agarose gel electrophoresis of amplification products. The procedure is quick, sensitive and reliable. It was used on 2,525 grapevine samples from the field, in the frame of the French survey in 2002. Mixed samples containing both phytoplasmas displayed a mixed profile in the gel. It was confirmed that the nested-PCR amplimer obtained in the FD9 DNA region with Elm yellows-group phytoplasmas, though shorter than the initial FD9 fragment, nevertheless contained the restriction sites that permit the RFLP identification of geographic phytoplasma isolates already characterized in former studies.

Chlorine as a geobarometer for alkaline magmas: Evidence from a systematic study of the eruptions of Mount Somma-Vesuvius

International audienceDefining the magma storage conditions of a volcanic system is a major goal in modern volcanology due to its direct implications for the style of a possible eruption, and thus on the associated risk of any crisis and the necessary management and mitigation strategies. Below 200 MPa and at equivalent depths, the strongly non-ideal behaviour of the H-CO -S-Cl-F system in the silicate melt causes unmixing of the fluid phase to form an H 2 O-rich vapour and a hydrosaline phase in equilibrium with the silicate melt, both responsible for buffering the chlorine (Cl) concentration. Following this equilibrium, the Cl concentration in melts may be used as a geobarometer for alkaline magmas. Systematic application of this method to the main explosive eruptions of Mount Somma-Vesuvius highlights two main magma ponding zones, at ~180–200 and ~100 MPa. At these pressures, the maximum pre-eruptive H 2 O contents for the different magma compositions can be estimated; the results obtained, largely in agreement with the current literature, therefore confirm the validity of the method. The Cl geobarometer may help scientists to define the variation of the magmatic reservoir location through time and thus provide strong constraints on pre-eruptive conditions, which are of utmost importance for volcanic crisis management

What factors control superficial lava dome explosivity?

Dome-forming eruption is a frequent eruptive style and a major hazard on numerous volcanoes worldwide. Lava domes are built by slow extrusion of degassed, viscous magma and may be destroyed by gravitational collapse or explosion. The triggering of lava dome explosions is poorly understood: here we propose a new model of superficial lava-dome explosivity based upon a textural and geochemical study (vesicularity, microcrystallinity, cristobalite distribution, residual water contents, crystal transit times) of clasts produced by key eruptions. Superficial explosion of a growing lava dome may be promoted through porosity reduction caused by both vesicle flattening due to gas escape and syn-eruptive cristobalite precipitation. Both processes generate an impermeable and rigid carapace allowing overpressurisation of the inner parts of the lava dome by the rapid input of vesiculated magma batches. The relative thickness of the cristobalite-rich carapace is an inverse function of the external lava dome surface area. Explosive activity is thus more likely to occur at the onset of lava dome extrusion, in agreement with observations, as the likelihood of superficial lava dome explosions depends inversely on lava dome volume. This new result is of interest for the whole volcanological community and for risk management

A System Dynamics Approach to Understanding the deep Magma Plumbing System Beneath Dominica (Lesser Antilles)

To understand the dynamics of magmatic systems, one must first seek to characterize the time-dependent behavior of magma storage and ascent. Herein, we do this through a combination of the Crystal System Approach and careful study of Fe-Mg interdiffusion in orthopyroxene. This allows us to trace the pre-eruptive dynamics of magma plumbing systems, both in space and time. We apply this novel approach on two large silicic eruptions (about 3–5 km3 DRE/eruption) that occurred in the central part of Dominica Island (Lesser Antilles Arc): the eruptions of Layou (∼51 ka) from Morne Diablotins, and Roseau (∼33 ka) from Morne Trois Pitons-Micotrin. For the Roseau eruption, two magmatic environments (MEs) are identified on the basis of orthopyroxene composition, with a dominant reverse-zoning pattern from 50 to 54 to 54–59 mol% enstatite (En), indicating interaction with hotter magma. For the Layou eruption, three MEs are observed as represented by three populations of pyroxenes: En47-51, En51-53 and En53-58. The normal-zoning pathway from En51-53 to En47-51 is significantly registered by crystals, interpreted as convective mixing in a zoned reservoir. The reverse-zoning pathway from En47-51 to En51-53 and also En53-58 is also significantly present, supporting the mixing within the zoned reservoir but also suggesting mixing with a hotter magma, possibly stored in another part of a sub-volcanic mush. The crystal and glass compositions (melt inclusion and matrix glass) from both studied eruptions suggest heating and mixing between different magma pockets located within the mush that were the dominant process for mobilizing eruptible magma. In parallel, we constrain the associated pre-eruptive timescales by modeling the diffusive relaxation of Fe-Mg chemical gradients that originated within the zonation of the same orthopyroxene crystals. Diffusion modeling was considered along the b-axis of 66 zoned orthopyroxene crystals for these two eruptions, at a magmatic temperature of 850 ± 25°C. In light of these results, we propose that the Layou and the Roseau magma reservoirs were rejuvenated and heated by ∼25–50°C about 10 years prior to eruption by the injection of an underplating, hotter magma, creating the observed dominant reverse-zoning patterns of the erupted orthopyroxenes. We thus have evidence that silicic mush can be re-mobilized over timescales of decades prior to eruption, as previously suggested for Santorini and Taupo volcanoes

How ethnic are African parties really? Evidence from Francophone Africa

Though African party systems are said to be ethnic, there is little evidence for this claim. The few empirical studies rarely rely on individual data and are biased in favour of Anglophone Africa. This paper looks at four Francophone countries, drawing on representative survey polls. Results reveal that ethnicity matters, but that its impact is generally rather weak and differs with regard to party systems and individual parties. ‘Ethnic parties’ in the strict sense are virtually absent. In particular, the voters’ location seems more important than ethnic affiliation. Other determinants such as regional ties, elite strategies, cross-cutting cleavages, and rational preferences deserve more attention in the future study of voting behaviour in Africa

"Meaning" as a sociological concept: A review of the modeling, mapping, and simulation of the communication of knowledge and meaning

The development of discursive knowledge presumes the communication of meaning as analytically different from the communication of information. Knowledge can then be considered as a meaning which makes a difference. Whereas the communication of information is studied in the information sciences and scientometrics, the communication of meaning has been central to Luhmann's attempts to make the theory of autopoiesis relevant for sociology. Analytical techniques such as semantic maps and the simulation of anticipatory systems enable us to operationalize the distinctions which Luhmann proposed as relevant to the elaboration of Husserl's "horizons of meaning" in empirical research: interactions among communications, the organization of meaning in instantiations, and the self-organization of interhuman communication in terms of symbolically generalized media such as truth, love, and power. Horizons of meaning, however, remain uncertain orders of expectations, and one should caution against reification from the meta-biological perspective of systems theory