Project Briefing #4 Defining the scenario approach

The aim of this Project Briefing is a clear definition of the various dimensions of our scenario approach in Net-Zero-2050. Starting from the overarching framework, we then describe, how scenarios are applied in the various projects. We define the scope and focus of the energy scenarios and the scenarios for Carbon Dioxide Removal measures, as well as the interface between both approaches

Project Briefing #2 Defining the German Carbon Budget

Net-Zero-2050 aims for a national roadmap for net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050, including integrated scenario analyses and negative emission technology assessment. The aim of this project briefing is to clarify the overall carbon budget available for Germany to comply with the global long-term temperature limit of well below 2°C of the Paris Agreement

Project Briefing #1: Structure of Project 1 within the Cluster Net-Zero-2050

Clarification of the work focus and the connection of the different elements of the Helmholtz Climate Initiative‘s Cluster I Net-Zero-205

Net‐Zero CO 2 Germany - A Retrospect From the Year 2050

Germany 2050: For the first time Germany reached a balance between its sources of anthropogenic CO2 to the atmosphere and newly created anthropogenic sinks. This backcasting study presents a fictional future in which this goal was achieved by avoiding (∼645 Mt CO2), reducing (∼50 Mt CO2) and removing (∼60 Mt CO2) carbon emissions. This meant substantial transformation of the energy system, increasing energy efficiency, sector coupling, and electrification, energy storage solutions including synthetic energy carriers, sector-specific solutions for industry, transport, and agriculture, as well as natural-sink enhancement and technological carbon dioxide options. All of the above was necessary to achieve a net-zero CO2 system for Germany by 2050

Deployment of Negative Emissions Technologies at the national level: A need for holistic feasibility assessments

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to strengthen the global response to climate change, and to maintain an average global temperature well below 2 °C, with aspirations towards 1.5 °C, by means of balancing sources and sinks of greenhouse gas emissions. Following this, the importance of carbon dioxide removal in global emission pathways has been further emphasized, and Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) that capture carbon from the atmosphere and remove it from the system have been put in the spotlight. NETs range from innovative, engineered technologies, to well-known approaches like afforestation/reforestation. These technologies essentially compensate for a shrinking carbon budget coupled with hard-to-abate future emissions, and a historical lack of action. However, none has been deployed at scales close to what is envisioned in emission pathways in line with the Paris Agreement goals. To understand the potential contribution of NETs to meet global emission goals, we need to better understand opportunities and constraints for deploying NETs on a national level. We examine 17 Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS), and discuss them in the context of available NETs feasibility assessments. Our mapping shows that most countries include NETs in their long-term strategies, and that enhancement of natural sinks is the most dominating type of NET in these strategies. In line with many feasibility assessments, LT-LEDS focus on technical and biophysical considerations, and neglect socio-cultural dimensions. We suggest that feasibility assessments at the national level need to be more holistic; context-specific and comprehensive in terms of aspects assessed

On the path to net-zero: Establishing a multi-level system to support the complex endeavor of reaching national carbon neutrality

Limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C, as agreed in the 2015 Paris Agreement, requires global carbon neutrality by mid-century at the latest. The corresponding carbon budget is decreasing steadily and significantly. To phase out carbon emissions in line with the specified temperature target, countries are formulating their mitigation efforts in their long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS). However, there are no standardized specifications for preparing these strategies, which is why the reports published to date differ widely in terms of structure and scope. To consider the multiple facets of reaching net-zero from a systemic perspective as comprehensively as possible, the authors propose the Net-Zero-2050 System: A novel, transferrable systems approach that supports the development of national endeavors toward carbon neutrality. The Net-Zero-2050 System is defined by three interconnected components: The Carbon-Emission-Based System, the surrounding Framing System and a set of system boundaries. For both systems levels, IPCC approaches were used as a basis and were then adjusted and supplemented by Net-Zero-2050. We suggest applying the Net-Zero-2050 System—beyond the project environment—in carbon emission based contexts at different levels. Especially at the national level, this would improve the comparability of the different national strategies to achieve carbon neutrality

How to develop new digital knowledge transfer products for communicating strategies and new ways towards a carbon-neutral Germany

Human-induced climate change is one of the most pressing challenges of our time. The Helmholtz Association is making essential research contributions to mitigate the causes and impacts of climate change and find ways to adapt. The “Net-Zero-2050” project, the Cluster I of the Helmholtz Climate Initiative, scientifically investigates and evaluates strategies and new ways to reduce, extract and permanently store carbon emissions. Two digital knowledge transfer products (DKTPs) were developed to present the complex research results comprehensively: (1) the “Net-Zero-2050 Web-Atlas” provides information on methods and technologies for CO2 reduction and possible reduction paths; (2) the “Soil Carbon App” provides simulated soil carbon data to estimate climate protection potentials through different land management methods. Both formats intend to support users in making informed decisions and developing appropriate climate neutrality strategies.During the two DKTPs development, common main challenges were identified regarding concepts and stakeholder involvement. Along with that, specific approaches to solving the tasks could be distilled for each product. In the still-evolving arena of digital knowledge transfer, no standard methods can be applied. At the same time, communication of climate research results to decision-makers is becoming more and more relevant. This paper extracts the challenges and gives approaches to facilitate a transfer of the gained experience to future similar projects

Cluster I: Net-Zero-2050. Project 1.2 Integrated Scenario Analyses. In: Helmholtz Climate Initiative Final Report 2022.

The integrated scenario analysis consists of three major tasks – a synthesis study on existing research on a CO2- neutral Germany; the development of an energy transition pathway which is limited by a total CO2 budget; and the multicriteria assessment of energy transition pathways. The budget approach was developed in close cooperation with Project 1.1. which lead to an allocation of < 7 Gt to the German energy system for 2021 until 2050. The synthesis study summarizes the key findings from three recent publications that describe a transformation of Germany into a CO2- or, respectively, climate-neutral economy and society by the middle of this century at the latest, including the climate policy instruments and measures required to achieve this goal. The main objective of this synthesis study within Net-Zero-2050 is to show which key climate policy steps need to be focused on and implemented, especially in the years up to 2030, which are at the same time mandatory prerequisites for achieving the goal of a CO2- or climate-neutral Germany. This synthesis is then integrated into a newly developed energy scenario. We apply a normative backcasting approach for scenario building, relying on historic data and assumptions from existing scenario studies. Additionally, a new energy and LCA-focused modeling was developed for the industrial sector, providing insights on hard to avoid or residual CO2 emissions from the steel and cement sectors. The energy system modeling approach was successfully extended by a model coupling: The energy system model based on an accounting framework (ESM) was integrated with REMix, a cost minimizing optimization model for power, heat and sector coupling. To achieve the necessary CO2 reduction, the scenario focuses on electrifying all end use sectors until 2030. Thus, the scenario envisages a doubling of power demand by 2050, with power supplying also for electric vehicles, heat pumps for space heat and the production of synthetic fuels (e.g. H2) which will be required for heavy duty transport, aviation & navigation and the transformation of industrial processes. The results indicate a significant regional focus of hydrogen production in the North Western Germany, including all necessary infrastructures. Next the modeling results were provided to the multicriteria assessment framework for further analysis of regional heterogeneity and stakeholder aspects. Stakeholders have differing interests and goals and tend to support the transformation pathway that suits their best interests and show resistance to pathways that do not. By applying an MCDA approach, we show that attitudes of stakeholders (incl. private households and utilities) differ with respect to the preferred transformation pathways. In particular, we show that transformation pathways with a higher share of biomass in combination with CCS face a lower level of preference among all stakeholders. Since biomass in combination with CCS and similar technologies will be necessary for reaching the net-zero goals, measures have to be taken quickly to reduce resistance, e.g. among households. Regions differ greatly in their geological, geographical as well as regional economic conditions. This also affects the potential for mitigation measures for greenhouse gases. Thus, it is to be expected that some regions will benefit more from decarbonization measures than others, while individual regions run the risk of economic losses. Accordingly, the question arises as to what extent benefits and losses need to be redistributed regionally. A successful energy transition which will be supported by at least a majority of stakeholders has to take heterogeneity across scales, resources, technologies, and regions into consideration