Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Geomorphic characterization of faults as earthquake sources in the Cuitzeo Lake basin, central Mexico

The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt is an active continental volcanic arc characterized by several arc-parallel Miocene-Holocene tectonic lake basins, such as the Cuitzeo, Zacapu, Chapala, and Zacoalco. Normal faults and related continental seismicity shape these basins. In the central part of this volcanic arc, the Cuitzeo Lake basin presents neotectonic fault activity, accommodating oblique extension through ENE-striking normal fault zones of the Morelia-Acambay Fault System and transfer faulting. Specific faults have been described in the basin, and various geological and structural studies have outlined its kinematics and structural geometry. However, these fault zones have not been fully characterized. Characterizing earthquake sources in the Cuitzeo Lake basin is essential to constrain the regional potential seismic hazard, aiming toward better territory planning. This study presents the first regional fault compilation in the Cuitzeo Lake basin that characterizes 21 fault zones from geomorphic data. We integrated previous volcanic and tectonic studies with new geomorphic and paleoseismic evaluations to assess potential seismic sources in the Cuitzeo Lake basin. Furthermore, we evaluate fault zone segmentation, fault slip distribution, transtensional partitioning, seismic hazard implications, and basin development. We improved the current understanding of the basin\u2019s transformation, subsidence, and sedimentation with all this information. Here, fault zones present a mean vertical slip-rate of 0.17 \ub1 0.27 mm/yr for 1 Ma, capable of generating Mw 6.2 to 7.0 earthquakes and average single-event displacements from 0.2 to 1.2 m. Multi-fault ruptures could be up to 63 km-long, capable of generating Mw 7.0 to 7.2 earthquakes, representing an important regional seismic hazard

Evidencias geol\uf3gicas, geomorfol\uf3gicas y geof\uedsicas de deformaci\uf3n asociada a la falla Cerritos y su implicaci\uf3n en el peligro s\uedsmico de Morelia, Michoac\ue1n, M\ue9xico

The Cerritos fault is located SW of Morelia city, in the state of Michoac\ue1n, M\ue9xico. The fault belongs to the western part of the Morelia-Acambay Fault System, an area with several active segmented faults that form various grabens and half-grabens. In this area, faulting affects Miocene to Holocene lithologies; some of these faults even control the distribution of regional monogenetic volcanoes. This work is an interdisciplinary approach to characterize the Cerritos fault, an important structure with a high seismic hazard potential. The Cerritos fault is a 12 km-long oblique fault (normal-left lateral) with a 130\ub15 m-high topographic relief (100 m of surface displacement + 30 m of subsurface displacement estimated from the inverted resistivity study). This fault is ENE-WSW oriented (255\ub0), with a 76\ub0 NNW dip. In a well\u2010exposed cross section of the Cerritos fault, a few meters from the master fault trace, a colluvial wedge with organic material was identified, yielding a radiocarbon age of 3.37-3.21 cal ka BP. Our geologic and geomorphological analyses indicate that the Cerritos fault is a young, tectonically-active fault, especially in its eastern part. The vertical and horizontal linearity of the fault scarp and the accumulation of lake deposits in the down-thrown block suggest active vertical motion (uplift and subsidence, respectively) along this fault. Geophysical surveys, including seismic refraction, terrestrial magnetometry, and electrical resistivity tomography, show the subsurface geometry of the fault to be characterized by a main listric fault plane and a damage zone in the footwall block, extending as far as 75 m from the main scarp. The damage zone is characterized by secondary, synthetic, and antithetic faults, forming roll-over anticlines and two crestal collapse grabens that accumulate colluvial material. Paleoseismic estimates of activity and seismic hazard potential indicate that the Cerritos fault has a slip-rate of 0.03\ub10.01 mm/yr, with mean vertical displacements of 0.5 m per event and a mean recurrence interval of 16 700 years. The Cerritos fault can generate single-segment ruptures with magnitudes of MW 6.2 to 6.6. Still, in a worst-case scenario, it could also rupture with the subparallel and adjacent Morelia and Cointzio faults, generating earthquake magnitudes up to MW 6.9

Erratum to: Guidelines for the use and interpretation of assays for monitoring autophagy (3rd edition) (Autophagy, 12, 1, 1-222, 10.1080/15548627.2015.1100356

No abstract available