Potentialprojektion bis 2040: Nach 2010 sinkt das Angebot an Arbeitskräften. Selbst hohe Zuwanderungen werden diesen Trend nicht stoppen können

Die Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotentials basiert auf zwei Grundbausteinen. Der erste ist eine Bevölkerungsprojektion, getrennt für West- und Ostdeutschland sowie für Deutsche und Ausländer. Der zweite ist die Projektion von Potentialerwerbsquoten, die für Westdeutschland auf Basis der Mikrozensus-Erwerbsquoten für die Vergangenheit neu berechnet wurden. Für Ostdeutschland erfolgte ebenfalls eine Neuschätzung auf Basis des Datenmaterials des Sozio-ökonomischen Panels und des Arbeitsmarktmonitors für die neuen Bundesländer. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, daß das Erwerbspersonenpotential aufgrund des Bevölkerungsrückgangs nach 2010 deutlich sinken wird. Sogar recht hohe Frauenerwerbsquoten und Zuwanderungen könnten diese Entwicklung nicht aufhalten. Parallel dazu steigt das Durchschnittsalter des Arbeitskräftepotentials. Diese Trends gelten im großen und ganzen für West- wie für Ostdeutschland

Fachkräftemangel: Wie viel Potenzial steckt in den heimischen Personalreserven?

Nach 2015 wird das deutsche Erwerbspersonenpotenzial derart sinken, dass eine vollständige Kompensation durch Einwanderung nahezu ausgeschlossen erschient. Um einem künftigen Mangel an Arbeitsund Fachkräften zu begegnen, sind deshalb Strategien zur weiteren Erschließung des heimischen Arbeitskräftepotenzial nötig, die in dem Beitrag diskutiert werden. "Kurzfristig könnten Arbeitslose und Personen aus der Stillen Reserve ins Erwerbsleben einmünden. Dazu wären außer einer deutlich höheren Arbeitskräftenachfrage oft auch weitere Eingliederungshilfen erforderlich. Zur langfristigen Erweiterung des Potenzials müssten geeignete Rahmenbedingungen geschaffen werden, damit z.B. Erwerbsw-uensche von verheirateten Frauen auch realisiert werden können. Darüber hinaus könnten 'latente' Reserven aktiviert werden. Dazu gehören ausländische Frauen und Ältere"

Evidence-based indications for the planning of PET or PET/CT capacities are needed

Purpose To identify evidence-based indications for PET/PET–CT scans in support of facilities planning and to describe a pilot project in which this information was applied for an investment decision in an Austrian region. The study updates a Health Technology Assessment (HTA) report (2015) on oncological indications, extending it to neurological indications and inflammatory disorders. Methods A systematic literature search to identify HTA reports, evidence-based guidelines, and systematic reviews/meta-analyses (SR/MA) was performed, supplemented by a manual search for professional society recommendations and explicit “not-to-do’s”. A needs-assessment was conducted in the context of the pilot study on investing in an additional PET–CT scanner in the Austrian region of Carinthia. Results Overall recommendations for indications as well as non-recommendations for the three areas (oncology, neurology, and inflammatory disorders) were compiled from the 2015 PET–HTA report and expanded for a final total of ten HTA, comprising 234 (positive and negative) recommendations from professional societies and databases, and supplemented by findings from 23 SR/MA. For the investment decision pilot study in Carinthia, 1762 PET scans were analyzed; 77.8% were assigned to the category “recommended evidence-based indications” (54.7%), “not recommended” (1.8%) or “contradictory recommendations” (21.3%). The remaining could not be assigned to any of the three categories. Conclusions The piloting of PET capacity planning using evidence-based information is a first of its kind in the published literature. On one hand, the high number of PET scans that could not be ascribed to any of the categories identified limits to the instructive power of the study to use evidence-based indication lists as the basis for a needs-assessment investment planning. On the other hand, this study reveals how there is a need to improve indication coding for enhanced capacity planning of medical services. Overall recommendations identified can serve as needs-based and evidence-based decision support for PET/PET–CT service provision

THE WORLD LUBRICANTS AND BASE OILS MARKET

Sažetak Za globalnu industriju maziva 2002. i prva polovica 2003. godine bile su izazovne! Globalna se potražnja smanjila poradi slabih gospodarstava, ali i strukturalnih razloga. To osobito vrijedi za Sjevernu Ameriku i zapadnu Europu, a kao posljedica političke nestabilnosti i za Srednji istok. Proizvedene količine baznih ulja i gotovih maziva uvelike su se smanjile u odnosu na 2001. godinu. Cijene baznih ulja na vršnim su vrijednostima, te se nisu smanjile nakon rata u Iraku. Marže proizvodnje maziva su visoke još od druge četvrtine 2003., a one su se, kao i zarada, za veliku većinu proizvođača gotovih maziva nalazile pod pritiskom. Koncentracija i konsolidacija globalne industrije maziva su napredovale, te su dovele do novoga poretka u svjetskoj “top ligi”. Prekomjerni kapaciteti i dalje predstavljaju problem, te će potaknuti veću racionalizaciju i dotjerivanje. Tehnički i ekološki zahtjevi za maziva i srodne specijalne proizvode postajat će sve zahtjevniji. Međutim, srednjo- i dugoročna budućnost nude također i nove mogućnosti.For the global lubricants industry, 2002 and 1st half 2003 were challenging! Global demand declined due to weak economies and structural reasons. This was particularly true in North America and Western Europe and – as a result of the political uncertainties – in Middle East. Inventories of base oils and finished lubricants have very much declined since 2001. Base oil prices are at peak levels and did not soften after the Iraq war. While lube refining margins are high since second quarter 2003, margins and profits for most manufacturers of finished lubricants were under pressure. Concentration and consolidation of the global lubricants industry progressed and lead to new rankings in the world’s “top league”. Overcapacities continue to be a problem and will trigger more rationalisation and streamlining. Technical and ecological requirements for lubricants and related specialties will become ever more demanding.However, the mid and long-term future will also offer opportunities

Erste Überlegungen zur künftigen Entwicklung des Erwerbspersonenpotentials im Gebiet der neuen Bundesländer

"Der Beitrag stellt erste Modellrechnungen zur Entwicklung des Erwerbspersonenpotentials in den neuen Bundesländern für den Zeitraum von 1990 bis 2010 dar. Dies geschieht auf dem Hintergrund einer höchst unsicheren Datenbasis, so daß die Berechnung im wesentlichen auf plausiblen Setzungen für die Komponenten der Bevölkerungsentwicklung und das Erwerbsverhalten beruhen. Zentrale Annahmen sind: die Angleichung der Mortalität, der Fertilität und der Erwerbsquoten Ostdeutschlands an die westdeutschen Verhältnisse. Vorgestellt und diskutiert werden mehrere Varianten für das ostdeutsche Erwerbspersonenpotential. Die Modellrechnungen sagen für die Zukunft Ostdeutschlands einen z.T. erheblichen Rückgang des Erwerbspersonenpotentials voraus. Nur in den Varianten mit unverändert hohen Erwerbsquoten und einen völlig oder wenigstens langfristig weitgehend ausgeglichenen Wanderungssaldo verläuft dieser Prozeß moderat (etwa 300.000 bis 450.000 Personen weniger). In den anderen Varianten liegt das Erwerbspersonenpotential im Jahr 2010 um über eine Million unter dem das Basisjahres 1990. Gesondert berücksichtigt wird der in kurz- bis mittelfristiger Sicht potentialmindernde Effekte von Vorruhestand und Altersübergangsgeld auf das Erwerbspersonenpotential in den neuen Bundesländern." (Autorenreferat)Erwerbspersonenpotenzial - Prognose, Erwerbsverhalten, Bevölkerungsentwicklung, Arbeitskräfteangebot, Erwerbsquote, Wanderung, Vorruhestand, Geschlechterverteilung, Altersstruktur, Ostdeutschland, Bundesrepublik Deutschland

Antonym adjective pairs and prosodic iconicity: evidence from letter replications in an English blogger corpus

This publication is with permission of the rights owner freely accessible due to an Alliance licence and a national licence (funded by the DFG, German Research Foundation) respectively.While the general assumption has long been that natural languages exhibit an arbitrary pairing of form and meaning, there is increasing empirical evidence that iconicity in language is not uncommon. One example from spoken language involves iconic prosodic modulation, i.e. the changing of prosodic features such as duration and fundamental frequency to express meanings such as size and speed. In this paper, we use data from an English social media corpus, with 140 million words written by 19,320 bloggers, to investigate a counterpart to iconic prosodic modulation in written language, namely letter replications (e.g. loooong). We examine pairs of gradable adjectives such as short/long, tiny/huge and fast/slow, finding a higher frequency of letter replications for adjectives associated with greater size or spatial/temporal extent. We did not find an iconic effect on the number of replicated letters. Our results show evidence for iconic prosody in written language, and further demonstrate that social media databases offer an excellent opportunity to investigate naturalistic written language.Peer Reviewe

Geoarchaeological studies on Roman time harbour sediments in Cologne — comparison of different OSL dating techniques

Due to the construction of a new North-South subway in Cologne, Roman time harbour sediments were exposed and were sampled for luminescence dating. A very good independent age control was given by the precise knowledge of the chronology of Roman activity and by radiocarbon ages of charcoal samples. Hence, different methodological approaches within luminescence dating were applied for Holocene heterogeneously bleached fluvial samples and were compared to the known ages. For one sample, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating was applied to coarse-grained quartz using a single aliquot regenerative-dose (SAR) protocol. After De-measurements, dif-ferent statistical approaches were tested (i.e. arithmetic mean, median, minimum age model, finite mixture model, leading edge method and the Fuchs and Lang approach). It is demonstrated that the Fuchs and Lang approach along with the leading edge method yielded the best matching OSL ages with respect to the known ages. For the other sample which showed feldspar contamination within the quartz signal, the post-IR blue stimulated luminescence (double SAR protocol) was measured in three different ways to calculate the De-value: with continuous wave (CW) stimulation with an IR-bleach at 50°C and at 225°C for 100 s prior to the OSL, and pulsed OSL (POSL). It was demonstrated that the IR-stimulation at 225°C has very good potential to remove the feldspar signal contribution as well as pulsed OSL, but the former might deplete parts of the quartz OSL signal. © 2011 Silesian University of Technology, Gliwice, Poland. All rights reserved