A systematic review and economic evaluation of subcutaneous and sublingual allergen immunotherapy in adults and children with seasonal allergic rhinitis

© Queen’s Printer and Controller of HMSO 2013Severe allergic rhinitis uncontrolled by conventional medication can substantially affect quality of life. Immunotherapy involves administering increasing doses of a specific allergen, with the aim of reducing sensitivity and symptomatic reactions. Recent meta-analyses have concluded that both subcutaneous immunotherapy (SCIT) and sublingual immunotherapy (SLIT) are more effective than placebo in reducing symptoms. It is uncertain which route of administration is more effective and whether or not treatment is cost-effective.National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programm

Effectiveness of autologous chondrocyte transplantation for hyaline cartilage defects in knees: a rapid and systematic review.

Background \ud \ud Proposed service Autologous chondrocyte transplantation (ACT) is a novel surgical approach used to treat full-thickness cartilage defects in knee joints. Small grafts of normal cartilage removed from the patient’s diseased joint are treated in a laboratory to obtain cartilage cells. These cells are cultured to expand the cell population and reimplanted a few weeks later into areas where cartilage is denuded by disease. The aim of this procedure is to restore normal cartilage to the ends of bones and thereby restore normal joint function. \ud \ud Epidemiology \ud \ud There are no reliable estimates of the prevalence of cartilage defects in the knee. Lesions are most likely to arise in sportsmen and women as a result of injury. Up to 20% of individuals sustaining a haemarthrosis following a knee injury may have cartilage damage. \ud \ud Objectives \ud \ud This systematic review of the available evidence was performed to: \ud \ud 1. Describe the types of knee disease for which ACT has been applied, the natural history and epidemiology of these conditions, and alternative treatment options \ud 2. Determine long-term clinical outcomes following ACT and other surgical procedures for knee cartilage defects \ud 3. Examine the economic evidence and consider the economic gains resulting from ACT. \ud \ud Methods \ud \ud To analyse the effectiveness of treatment and the resultant economic impact, a systematic review of the literature, involving a range of databases, was performed. In addition, contact was made with leading researchers and industry. Full details are described in the main report. \ud \ud Results \ud \ud Number and quality of studies and direction of evidence Of 46 identified reports, 17 met the criteria for inclusion in this review. Eight of the included reports were available as abstracts only. At least 2600 patients appear to have been treated with ACT. All included reports were case series with a variable length of follow-up. With one exception, all the studies reported improvement in patient status, usually over a follow-up period of less than 2 years. \ud \ud Summary of benefits \ud \ud The outcome of ACT surgery was rated as ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ by approximately 70% of patients 2 years after treatment. Approximately 16% of patients required further arthroscopic surgical procedures during follow-up, and treatment was judged to have failed in 3–7% of patients. For comparator treatments, the outcome was rated as ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ in 10–95% of patients 2 years after treatment. \ud \ud Economic review \ud \ud The reports of two studies, one based in the USA and the other in Sweden, included economic data. Neither study compared ACT with other treatments. Using data from these studies and other sources, it was estimated that ACT performed in the UK would cost £4667 or £8167 for cell culture and surgery, depending on which service provider was used for cell culture. Incremental cost over 2 years, when set against comparator treatments, was estimated to be £3771 or £7271 (base case) for cell culture, surgery and rehabilitation. Using the OsCell facility for cell culture (Robert Jones and Agnes Hunt Orthopaedic and District Hospital NHS Trust), this figure would be £3167. \ud \ud Conclusions \ud \ud The reported literature on ACT and comparators is subject to bias because of the inherent weaknesses of case series. In addition, the long-term impact of conventional surgical treatments or no surgical treatment is poorly documented. The cost-effectiveness analysis is similarly limited by the poverty of the effectiveness data on both ACT and comparators, the lack of long-term follow-up and the lack of empirical data for some of the parameters in the model used. \ud \ud Recommendations for research \ud \ud Further studies are required to: \ud \ud 1. Provide more accurate data on the occurrence of hyaline cartilage defects, including defects that arise acutely and those that are secondary to other types of knee injuries \ud 2. Clarify the relationship of cartilage defects to clinical symptoms \ud 3. Evaluate in detail the natural history of cartilage defects diagnosed by modern arthroscopic methods \ud 4. Compare ACT with other treatments deemed appropriate, based on randomised trials currently in progress or planned \ud 5. Examine, in prospective randomised trials, issues such as differences in outcome in patient subgroups (e.g. the suggested poor outcomes in patients with patellar defects), with patients followed for as long as possible \ud 6. Address the deficiencies in evaluating the clinical outcomes of knee injury and incorporate measures of general health status \ud 7. Consider study designs, other than randomised trials, that might be used to assess complex interventions such as those required in complex knee injuries

Advanced study of coastal zone oceanographic requirements for ERTS E and F

Earth Resources Technology Satellites E and F orbits and remote sensor instruments for coastal oceanographic data collectio

Twenty years and counting: epidemiology of an outbreak of isoniazid-resistant tuberculosis in England and Wales, 1995 to 2014

An outbreak of isoniazid-resistant tuberculosis first identified in London has now been ongoing for 20 years, making it the largest drug-resistant outbreak of tuberculosis documented to date worldwide. We identified culture-confirmed cases with indistinguishable molecular strain types and extracted demographic, clinical, microbiological and social risk factor data from surveillance systems. We summarised changes over time and used kernel-density estimation and k-function analysis to assess geographic clustering. From 1995 to 2014, 508 cases were reported, with a declining trend in recent years. Overall, 70% were male (n = 360), 60% born in the United Kingdom (n = 306), 39% white (n = 199), and 26% black Caribbean (n = 134). Median age increased from 25 years in the first 5 years to 42 in the last 5. Approximately two thirds of cases reported social risk factors: 45% drug use (n = 227), 37% prison link (n = 189), 25% homelessness (n = 125) and 13% alcohol dependence (n = 64). Treatment was completed at 12 months by 52% of cases (n = 206), and was significantly lower for those with social risk factors (p < 0.05), but increased over time for all patients (p < 0.05). The outbreak remained focused in north London throughout. Control of this outbreak requires continued efforts to prevent and treat further active cases through targeted screening and enhanced case management

A systematic review of the effectiveness of adalimumab, etanercept and infliximab for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis in adults and an economic evaluation of their cost-effectiveness

Objectives: This report reviews the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of adalimumab, etanercept and infliximab, agents that inhibit tumour necrosis factor-a (TNF-a), when used in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in adults. \ud \ud Data sources: Electronic databases were searched up to February 2005. \ud \ud Review methods: Systematic reviews of the literature on effectiveness and cost-effectiveness were undertaken and industry submissions to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) were reviewed. Meta-analyses of effectiveness data were also undertaken for each agent. The Birmingham Rheumatoid Arthritis Model (BRAM), a simulation model, was further developed and used to produce an incremental cost-effectiveness analysis. \ud \ud Results: Twenty-nine randomised controlled trials (RCTs), most of high quality, were included. The only head-to-head comparisons were against methotrexate. For patients with short disease duration (≤3 years) who were naïve to methotrexate, adalimumab was marginally less and etanercept was marginally more effective than methotrexate in reducing symptoms of RA. Etanercept was better tolerated than methotrexate. Both adalimumab and etanercept were more effective than methotrexate in slowing radiographic joint damage. Etanercept was also marginally more effective and better tolerated than methotrexate in patients with longer disease durations who had not failed methotrexate treatment. Infliximab is only licensed for use with methotrexate. All three agents, either alone (where so licensed) or in combination with ongoing disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs), were effective in reducing the symptoms and signs of RA in patients with established disease. At the licensed dose, the numbers needed to treat (NNTs) (95% CI) required to produce an American College for Rheumatology (ACR) response compared with placebo were: ACR20: adalimumab 3.6 (3.1 to 4.2), etanercept 2.1 (1.9 to 2.4), infliximab 3.2 (2.7 to 4.0); ACR50: adalimumab 4.2 (3.7 to 5.0), etanercept 3.1 (2.7 to 3.6), infliximab 5.0 (3.8 to 6.7); and ACR70: adalimumab 7.7 (5.9 to 11.1), etanercept 7.7 (6.3 to 10.0), infliximab 11.1 (7.7 to 20.0). In patients who were naïve to methotrexate, or who had not previously failed methotrexate treatment, a TNF inhibitor combined with methotrexate was significantly more effective than methotrexate alone. Infliximab combined with methotrexate had an increased risk of serious infections. All ten published economic evaluations met standard criteria for quality, but the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) ranged from being within established thresholds to being very high because of varying assumptions and parameters. All three sponsors who submitted economic models made assumptions favourable to their product. BRAM incorporates improvements in quality of life and mortality, but assumes no effect of TNF inhibitors on joint replacement. For use in accordance with current NICE guidance as the third DMARD in a sequence of DMARDs, the base-case ICER was around £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) in early RA and £50,000 per QALY in late RA. Sensitivity analyses showed that the results were sensitive to the estimates of Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) progression while on TNF inhibitors and the effectiveness of DMARDs, but not to changes in mortality ratios per unit HAQ. TNF inhibitors are most cost-effective when used last. The ICER for etanercept used last is £24,000 per QALY, substantially lower than for adalimumab (£30,000 per QALY) or infliximab (£38,000 per QALY). First line use as monotherapy generates ICERs around £50,000 per QALY for adalimumab and etanercept. Using the combination of methotrexate and a TNF inhibitor as first line treatment generates much higher ICERs, as it precludes subsequent use of methotrexate, which is cheap. The ICERs for sequential use are of the same order as using the TNF inhibitor alone. \ud \ud Conclusions: Adalimumab, etanercept and infliximab are effective treatments compared with placebo for RA patients who are not well controlled by conventional DMARDs, improving control of symptoms, improving physical function, and slowing radiographic changes in joints. The combination of a TNF inhibitor with methotrexate was more effective than methotrexate alone in early RA, although the clinical relevance of this additional benefit is yet to be established, particularly in view of the well-established effectiveness of MTX alone. An increased risk of serious infection cannot be ruled out for the combination of methotrexate with adalimumab or infliximab. The results of the economic evaluation based on BRAM are consistent with the observations from the review of clinical effectiveness, including the ranking of treatments. TNF inhibitors are most cost-effective when used as last active therapy. In this analysis, other things being equal, etanercept may be the TNF inhibitor of choice, although this may also depend on patient preference as to route of administration. The next most cost-effective use of TNF inhibitors is third line, as recommended in the 2002 NICE guidance. Direct comparative RCTs of TNF inhibitors against each other and against other DMARDs, and sequential use in patients who have failed a previous TNF inhibitor, are needed. Longer term studies of the quality of life in patients with RA and the impact of DMARDs on this are needed, as are longer studies that directly assess effects on joint replacement, other morbidity and mortality

Forecasts of non-Gaussian parameter spaces using Box-Cox transformations

Forecasts of statistical constraints on model parameters using the Fisher matrix abound in many fields of astrophysics. The Fisher matrix formalism involves the assumption of Gaussianity in parameter space and hence fails to predict complex features of posterior probability distributions. Combining the standard Fisher matrix with Box-Cox transformations, we propose a novel method that accurately predicts arbitrary posterior shapes. The Box-Cox transformations are applied to parameter space to render it approximately multivariate Gaussian, performing the Fisher matrix calculation on the transformed parameters. We demonstrate that, after the Box-Cox parameters have been determined from an initial likelihood evaluation, the method correctly predicts changes in the posterior when varying various parameters of the experimental setup and the data analysis, with marginally higher computational cost than a standard Fisher matrix calculation. We apply the Box-Cox-Fisher formalism to forecast cosmological parameter constraints by future weak gravitational lensing surveys. The characteristic non-linear degeneracy between matter density parameter and normalisation of matter density fluctuations is reproduced for several cases, and the capabilities of breaking this degeneracy by weak lensing three-point statistics is investigated. Possible applications of Box-Cox transformations of posterior distributions are discussed, including the prospects for performing statistical data analysis steps in the transformed Gaussianised parameter space.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures; minor changes to match version published in MNRA

Inherited crustal deformation along the East Gondwana margin revealed by seismic anisotropy tomography

Acknowledgments We thank Mallory Young for providing phase velocity measurements in mainland Australia and Tasmania. Robert Musgrave is thanked for making available his tilt-filtered magnetic intensity map. In the short term, data may be made available by contacting the authors (S.P. or N.R.). A new database of passive seismic data recorded in Australia is planned as part of a national geophysics data facility for easy access download. Details on the status of this database may be obtained from the authors (S.P., N.R., or A.M.R.). There are no restrictions on access for noncommercial use. Commercial users should seek written permission from the authors (S.P. or N.R.). Ross Cayley publishes with the permission of the Director of the Geological Survey of Victoria.Peer reviewedPublisher PD