Disseminated Effects in Agent Based Models: A Potential Outcomes Framework and Application to Inform Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Coverage Levels for HIV Prevention

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention may not only benefit the individual who uses it, but also their uninfected sexual risk contacts. We developed an agent-based model using a novel trial emulation approach to quantify disseminated effects of PrEP use among men who have sex with men in Atlanta, USA from 2015 to 2017. Components (subsets of agents connected through partnerships in a sexual network, but not sharing partnerships with any other agents) were first randomized to an intervention coverage level or control, then within intervention components, eligible agents were randomized to PrEP. We estimated direct and disseminated (indirect) effects using randomization-based estimators and reported corresponding 95% simulation intervals across scenarios ranging from 10% to 90% coverage in the intervention components. A population of 11,245 agents was simulated with an average of 1,551 components identified. Comparing agents randomized to PrEP in 70% coverage components to control agents, there was a 15% disseminated risk reduction in HIV incidence (95% simulation intervals = 0.65, 1.05). Individuals not on PrEP may receive a protective benefit by being in a sexual network with higher PrEP coverage. Agent-based models are useful to evaluate possible direct and disseminated effects of HIV prevention modalities in sexual networks

Spacetime as a membrane in higher dimensions

By means of a simple model we investigate the possibility that spacetime is a membrane embedded in higher dimensions. We present cosmological solutions of d-dimensional Einstein-Maxwell theory which compactify to two dimensions. These solutions are analytically continued to obtain dual solutions in which a (d-2)-dimensional Einstein spacetime "membrane" is embedded in d-dimensions. The membrane solutions generalise Melvin's 4-dimensional flux tube solution. The flat membrane is shown to be classically stable. It is shown that there are zero mode solutions of the d-dimensional Dirac equation which are confined to a neighbourhood of the membrane and move within it like massless chiral (d-2)-dimensional fermions. An investigation of the spectrum of scalar perturbations shows that a well-defined mass gap between the zero modes and massive modes can be obtained if there is a positive cosmological term in (d-2) dimensions or a negative cosmological term in d dimensions.Comment: 30 pages, 4 figures in 10 files, epsf. This early brane world paper is being placed on the archive to make it more easily accessible, as its results are used in a new brane world construction in an accompanying submissio

A multi-layer extension of the stochastic heat equation

Motivated by recent developments on solvable directed polymer models, we define a 'multi-layer' extension of the stochastic heat equation involving non-intersecting Brownian motions.Comment: v4: substantially extended and revised versio

Templates for Convex Cone Problems with Applications to Sparse Signal Recovery

This paper develops a general framework for solving a variety of convex cone problems that frequently arise in signal processing, machine learning, statistics, and other fields. The approach works as follows: first, determine a conic formulation of the problem; second, determine its dual; third, apply smoothing; and fourth, solve using an optimal first-order method. A merit of this approach is its flexibility: for example, all compressed sensing problems can be solved via this approach. These include models with objective functionals such as the total-variation norm, ||Wx||_1 where W is arbitrary, or a combination thereof. In addition, the paper also introduces a number of technical contributions such as a novel continuation scheme, a novel approach for controlling the step size, and some new results showing that the smooth and unsmoothed problems are sometimes formally equivalent. Combined with our framework, these lead to novel, stable and computationally efficient algorithms. For instance, our general implementation is competitive with state-of-the-art methods for solving intensively studied problems such as the LASSO. Further, numerical experiments show that one can solve the Dantzig selector problem, for which no efficient large-scale solvers exist, in a few hundred iterations. Finally, the paper is accompanied with a software release. This software is not a single, monolithic solver; rather, it is a suite of programs and routines designed to serve as building blocks for constructing complete algorithms.Comment: The TFOCS software is available at http://tfocs.stanford.edu This version has updated reference

Observational Constraints on Cosmological Models with the Updated Long Gamma-Ray Bursts

In the present work, by the help of the newly released Union2 compilation which consists of 557 Type Ia supernovae (SNIa), we calibrate 109 long Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs) with the well-known Amati relation, using the cosmology-independent calibration method proposed by Liang {\it et al.}. We have obtained 59 calibrated high-redshift GRBs which can be used to constrain cosmological models without the circularity problem (we call them ``Hymnium'' GRBs sample for convenience). Then, we consider the joint constraints on 7 cosmological models from the latest observational data, namely, the combination of 557 Union2 SNIa dataset, 59 calibrated Hymnium GRBs dataset (obtained in this work), the shift parameter $R$ from the WMAP 7-year data, and the distance parameter $A$ of the measurement of the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) peak in the distribution of SDSS luminous red galaxies. We also briefly consider the comparison of these 7 cosmological models.Comment: 19 pages, 3 tables, 10 figures, revtex4; v2: accepted for publication in JCAP; v3: published versio

Magnetization steps in a diluted Heisenberg antiferromagnetic chain: Theory and experiments on TMMC:Cd

A theory for the equilibrium low-temperature magnetization M of a diluted Heisenberg antiferromagnetic chain is presented. The magnetization curve, M versus B, is calculated using the exact contributions of finite chains with 1 to 5 spins, and the "rise and ramp approximation" for longer chains. Some non-equilibrium effects that occur in a rapidly changing B, are also considered. Specific non-equilibrium models based on earlier treatments of the phonon bottleneck, and of spin flips associated with cross relaxation and with level crossings, are discussed. Magnetization data on powders of TMMC diluted with cadmium [i.e., (CH_3)_4NMn_xCd_(1-x)Cl_3, with 0.16<=x<=0.50 were measured at 0.55 K in 18 T superconducting magnets. The field B_1 at the first MST from pairs is used to determine the NN exchange constant, J, which changes from -5.9 K to -6.5 K as x increases from 0.16 to 0.50. The magnetization curves obtained in the superconducting magnets are compared with simulations based on the equilibrium theory. Data for the differential susceptibility, dM/dB, were taken in pulsed magnetic fields (7.4 ms duration) up to 50 T, with the powder samples in a 1.5 K liquid-helium bath. Non-equilibrium effects, which became more severe as x decreased, were observed. The non-equilibrium effects are tentatively interpreted using the "Inadequate Heat Flow Scenario," or to cross-relaxation, and crossings of energy levels, including those of excited states.Comment: 16 pages, 14 figure

Measurements of the strong-interaction widths of the kaonic 3He and 4He 2p levels

The kaonic 3He and 4He X-rays emitted in the 3d-2p transitions were measured in the SIDDHARTA experiment. The widths of the kaonic 3He and 4He 2p states were determined to be Gamma_2p(3He) = 6 \pm 6 (stat.) \pm 7 (syst.) eV, and Gamma_2p(4He) = 14 \pm 8 (stat.) \pm 5 (syst.) eV, respectively. Both results are consistent with the theoretical predictions. The width of kaonic 4He is much smaller than the value of 55 \pm 34 eV determined by the experiments performed in the 70's and 80's, while the width of kaonic 3He was determined for the first time.Comment: Accepted in Phys. Lett.

Young and Intermediate-age Distance Indicators

Distance measurements beyond geometrical and semi-geometrical methods, rely mainly on standard candles. As the name suggests, these objects have known luminosities by virtue of their intrinsic proprieties and play a major role in our understanding of modern cosmology. The main caveats associated with standard candles are their absolute calibration, contamination of the sample from other sources and systematic uncertainties. The absolute calibration mainly depends on their chemical composition and age. To understand the impact of these effects on the distance scale, it is essential to develop methods based on different sample of standard candles. Here we review the fundamental properties of young and intermediate-age distance indicators such as Cepheids, Mira variables and Red Clump stars and the recent developments in their application as distance indicators.Comment: Review article, 63 pages (28 figures), Accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews (Chapter 3 of a special collection resulting from the May 2016 ISSI-BJ workshop on Astronomical Distance Determination in the Space Age