Electoral Externalities in Federations - Evidence from German Opinion Polls

Party performance in state and federal elections is highly interdependent. Federal elections impact regional voting dynamics and vice versa (electoral externalities). We quantify the extent of simultaneous electoral externalities between two layers of government. We apply vector autoregressions with predetermined variables to unique opinion poll data for the German state of Berlin and the federal level in Germany. State voting intentions for the state and for the federal parliament are the endogenous variables; the federal election trend is treated as predetermined. Our results suggest that shocks in federal parliament voting intention impact state parliament voting intention, but – as a new finding – to the same extent also vice versa. Externalities account for around 10% to 30% of variation at the other level of government. The effects differ across parties. Electoral externalities are less pronounced for the conservative party, but increase in times of government. The opposite holds true for left-wing parties

Electoral Externalities in Federations - Evidence from German Opinion Polls

Der Erfolg von Parteien unterschiedlicher politischer Ebenen ist stark voneinander abhängig. Föderale Wahlen beeinflussen regionale Wahlentscheidungen und umgekehrt (Wahlexternalitäten). In diesem Aufsatz identifizieren wir Wahlexternalitäten zwischen Deutschland insgesamt und Berlin für vier Parteien. Dafür benutzen wir Wahlumfragen. Wahlexternalitäten erklären zwischen 10% und 30% der Variation der jeweils anderen politischen Ebene. Die Effekte sind höchst heterogen zwischen den Parteien

Design-Education: Die Siemens HMI-Design Masterclass

Wie kann man die internationale Anlagen - und Maschinenindustrie zum „Besseren Entwerfen von Mensch-Maschine-Benutzeroberflächen“ verführen. Das war die Ausgangssituation und Aufgabenstellung. [...] Mit der Erkenntnis, dass nutzerorientiertes HMI-Design ein wesentlicher Erfolgsfaktor ist, stellte sich das Unternehmen Siemens die Frage, wie es nachhaltig und schrittweise die weltweiten Kunden zum „besseren Design“ anleiten und die tägliche Arbeit der Anwender in den Maschinen-Produktionshallen der Welt spürbar verbessern könnte. In Zusammenarbeit mit chilli mind entstand mit der HMI-Design Masterclass eine erfolgversprechende Antwort: Man braucht ein zeiteffizientes und unterhaltsames Lernformat, verbunden mit praktischen und pragmatischen Lerninhalten, um die Zielgruppe der weltweiten Maschinenbauer für eine „bessere HMI-Gestaltung“ zu gewinnen und zur Teilnahme zu bewegen. (Kranert et al. 2018) Dieser Beitrag beantwortet u.a. folgende drei Fragen: 1. Welche Charakteristika von Content Marketing, Microlearning und Storytelling greifen ineinander, um zum Lernerfolg der Zielgruppe zu führen? 2. Wie sieht das Konzept der HMI-Design Masterclass konkret aus? 3. Welche messbaren Erfolge konnten mit der HMI-Design Masterclass erzielt werden? [... aus der Einleitung

Genetic variations in bile acid homeostasis are not overrepresented in alcoholic cirrhosis compared to patients with heavy alcohol abuse and absent liver disease

Increased serum bile salt levels have been associated to a single-nucleotide polymorphism in the bile salt export pump (BSEP; ABCB11) in several acquired cholestatic liver diseases but there is little evidence in alcoholic liver disease (ALD). Furthermore, a crosstalk between vitamin D and bile acid synthesis has recently been discovered. Whether this crosstalk has an influence on the course of ALD is unclear to date. Our aim was to analyse the role of genetic polymorphisms in BSEP and the vitamin D receptor gene (NR1I1) on the emergence of cirrhosis in patients with ALD. Therefore, 511 alcoholic patients (131 with cirrhosis and 380 without cirrhosis) underwent ABCB11 genotyping (rs2287622). Of these, 321 (131 with cirrhosis and 190 without cirrhosis) were also tested for NR1I1 polymorphisms (bat-haplotype: BsmI rs1544410, ApaI rs7975232 and TaqI rs731236). Frequencies of ABCB11 and NR1I1 genotypes and haplotypes were compared between alcoholic patients with and without cirrhosis and correlated to serum bile salt, bilirubin and aspartate aminotransferase levels in those with cirrhosis. Frequencies of ABCB11 and NR1I1 genotypes and haplotypes did not differ between the two subgroups and no significant association between genotypes/haplotypes and liver function tests could be determined for neither polymorphism. We conclude that ABCB11 and NR1I1 polymorphisms are obviously not associated with development of cirrhosis in patients with AL

Listening to the patients' voice: a conceptual framework of the walking experience

BACKGROUND: walking is crucial for an active and healthy ageing, but the perspectives of individuals living with walking impairment are still poorly understood. OBJECTIVES: to identify and synthesise evidence describing walking as experienced by adults living with mobility-impairing health conditions and to propose an empirical conceptual framework of walking experience. METHODS: we performed a systematic review and meta-ethnography of qualitative evidence, searching seven electronic databases for records that explored personal experiences of walking in individuals living with conditions of diverse aetiology. Conditions included Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hip fracture, heart failure, frailty and sarcopenia. Data were extracted, critically appraised using the NICE quality checklist and synthesised using standardised best practices. RESULTS: from 2,552 unique records, 117 were eligible. Walking experience was similar across conditions and described by seven themes: (i) becoming aware of the personal walking experience, (ii) the walking experience as a link between individuals' activities and sense of self, (iii) the physical walking experience, (iv) the mental and emotional walking experience, (v) the social walking experience, (vi) the context of the walking experience and (vii) behavioural and attitudinal adaptations resulting from the walking experience. We propose a novel conceptual framework that visually represents the walking experience, informed by the interplay between these themes. CONCLUSION: a multi-faceted and dynamic experience of walking was common across health conditions. Our conceptual framework of the walking experience provides a novel theoretical structure for patient-centred clinical practice, research and public health

The impact of the Boussinesq approximation on plasma turbulence in the scrape-off layer

Plasma turbulence in the tokamak scrape-off layer (SOL) region, where magnetic field lines are open and intersect the reactor inner walls, determines the heat loads on the limiter or divertor targets. This is one of the most crucial issues on the way towards a fusion reactor. Since SOL plasma is colder compared to the tokamak core, it is reasonable to use a fluid approximation to describe its dynamics. In particular the drift-reduced Braginskii equations are chosen to study the SOL plasma turbulence. To further simplify the drift-reduced Braginskii equations, the Boussinesq approximation is also applied in a number of numerical codes. This approximation consists in considering the plasma density constant in the evaluation of the divergence of the polarisation current, which simplifies substantially the solution of the Poisson equation necessary to evaluate the electric potential. In this study a new formulation of the drift-reduced Braginskii equations is presented together with a new numerical implementation that allow us to relax the Boussinesq approximation in the plasma turbulent code GBS. We show the energy conservation properties of the new system of equations. Also we compare the results of three-dimensional turbulent simulations with and without the Boussinesq approximation

Retardation of arsenic transport through a Pleistocene aquifer

Groundwater drawn daily from shallow alluvial sands by millions of wells over large areas of south and southeast Asia exposes an estimated population of over a hundred million people to toxic levels of arsenic. Holocene aquifers are the source of widespread arsenic poisoning across the region. In contrast, Pleistocene sands deposited in this region more than 12,000 years ago mostly do not host groundwater with high levels of arsenic. Pleistocene aquifers are increasingly used as a safe source of drinking water and it is therefore important to understand under what conditions low levels of arsenic can be maintained. Here we reconstruct the initial phase of contamination of a Pleistocene aquifer near Hanoi, Vietnam. We demonstrate that changes in groundwater flow conditions and the redox state of the aquifer sands induced by groundwater pumping caused the lateral intrusion of arsenic contamination more than 120 metres from a Holocene aquifer into a previously uncontaminated Pleistocene aquifer. We also find that arsenic adsorbs onto the aquifer sands and that there is a 16–20-fold retardation in the extent of the contamination relative to the reconstructed lateral movement of groundwater over the same period. Our findings suggest that arsenic contamination of Pleistocene aquifers in south and southeast Asia as a consequence of increasing levels of groundwater pumping may have been delayed by the retardation of arsenic transport

SELFIES and the future of molecular string representations

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are expanding in popularity for broad applications to challenging tasks in chemistry and materials science. Examples include the prediction of properties, the discovery of new reaction pathways, or the design of new molecules. The machine needs to read and write fluently in a chemical language for each of these tasks. Strings are a common tool to represent molecular graphs, and the most popular molecular string representation, SMILES, has powered cheminformatics since the late 1980s. However, in the context of AI and ML in chemistry, SMILES has several shortcomings -- most pertinently, most combinations of symbols lead to invalid results with no valid chemical interpretation. To overcome this issue, a new language for molecules was introduced in 2020 that guarantees 100\% robustness: SELFIES (SELF-referencIng Embedded Strings). SELFIES has since simplified and enabled numerous new applications in chemistry. In this manuscript, we look to the future and discuss molecular string representations, along with their respective opportunities and challenges. We propose 16 concrete Future Projects for robust molecular representations. These involve the extension toward new chemical domains, exciting questions at the interface of AI and robust languages and interpretability for both humans and machines. We hope that these proposals will inspire several follow-up works exploiting the full potential of molecular string representations for the future of AI in chemistry and materials science.Comment: 34 pages, 15 figures, comments and suggestions for additional references are welcome