Swainson\u27s Thrushes Do Not Show Strong Wing Selectivity Prior to Crossing the Gulf of Mexico

During long-distance fall migrations, nocturnally migrating Swainson’s Thrushes often stop on the northern Gulf of Mexico coast before flying across the Gulf. To minimize energetic costs, trans-Gulf migrants should stop over when they encounter crosswinds or headwinds, and depart with supportive tailwinds. However, time constrained migrants should be less selective, balancing costs of headwinds with benefits of continuing their migrations. To test the hypotheses that birds select supportive winds and that selectivity is mediated by seasonal time constraints, we examined whether local winds affected Swainson’s Thrushes’ arrival and departure at Ft. Morgan, Alabama, USA at annual, seasonal, and nightly time scales. Additionally, migrants could benefit from forecasting future wind conditions, crossing on nights when winds are consistently supportive across the Gulf, thereby avoiding the potentially lethal consequences of depleting their energetic reserves over water. To test whether birds forecast, we developed a movement model, calculated to what extent departure winds were predictive of future Gulf winds, and tested whether birds responded to predictability. Swainson’s Thrushes were only slightly selective and did not appear to forecast. By following the simple rule of avoiding only the strongest headwinds at departure, Swainson’s Thrushes could survive the 1500 km flight between Alabama and Veracruz, Mexico

Singular Isothermal Disks: II. Nonaxisymmetric Bifurcations and Equilibria

We review the difficulties of the classical fission and fragmentation hypotheses for the formation of binary and multiple stars. A crucial missing ingredient in previous theoretical studies is the inclusion of dynamically important levels of magnetic fields. As a minimal model for a candidate presursor to the formation of binary and multiple stars, we therefore formulate and solve the problem of the equilibria of isopedically magnetized, singular isothermal disks, without the assumption of axial symmetry. Considerable analytical progress can be made if we restrict our attention to models that are scale-free, i.e., that have surface densities that vary inversely with distance from the rotation axis of the system. In agreement with earlier analysis by Syer and Tremaine, we find that lopsided (M=1) configurations exist at any dimensionless rotation rate, including zero. Multiple-lobed (M = 2, 3, 4, ...) configurations bifurcate from an underlying axisymmetric sequence at progressively higher dimensionless rates of rotation, but such nonaxisymmetric sequences always terminate in shockwaves before they have a chance to fission into M=2, 3, 4, ... separate bodies. On the basis of our experience in this paper, and the preceding Paper I, we advance the hypothesis that binary and multiple star-formation from smooth (i.e., not highly turbulent) starting states that are supercritical but in unstable mechanical balance requires the rapid (i.e., dynamical) loss of magnetic flux at some stage of the ensuing gravitational collapse.Comment: 49 pages, 11 figures, LaTeX, needs aaspp4.sty. The Astrophysical Journal, in pres

Trends in Decline of Antiretroviral Resistance among ARV-Experienced Patients in the HIV Outpatient Study: 1999–2008

Background. Little is known about temporal trends in frequencies of clinically relevant ARV resistance mutations in HIV strains from U.S. patients undergoing genotypic testing (GT) in routine HIV care. Methods. We analyzed cumulative frequency of HIV resistance among patients in the HIV Outpatient Study (HOPS) who, during 1999–2008 and while prescribed antiretrovirals, underwent GT with plasma HIV RNA >1,000 copies/mL. Exposure ≥4 months to each of three major antiretroviral classes (NRTI, NNRTI and PI) was defined as triple-class exposure (TCE). Results. 906 patients contributed 1,570 GT results. The annual frequency of any major resistance mutations decreased during 1999–2008 (88% to 79%, P = 0.05). Resistance to PIs decreased among PI-exposed patients (71% to 46%, P = 0.010) as exposure to ritonavir-boosted PIs increased (6% to 81%, P < 0.001). Non-significant declines were observed in resistance to NRTIs among NRTI-exposed (82% to 67%), and triple-class-resistance among TCE patients (66% to 41%), but not to NNRTIs among NNRTI-exposed. Conclusions. HIV resistance was common but declined in HIV isolates from subgroups of ARV-experienced HOPS patients during 1999–2008. Resistance to PIs among PI-exposed patients decreased, possibly due to increased representation of patients whose only PI exposures were to boosted PIs

Identifying risk factors for progression to critical care admission and death among individuals with acute pancreatitis : a record linkage analysis of Scottish healthcare databases

This study was commissioned by GSK through the Farr Institute/SHIP/eDRIS single portal. DJM is a Clinician Scientist Fellow funded by the Health Foundation/Academy of Medical Sciences.Objectives: Acute pancreatitis (AP) can initiate systemic complications that require support in critical care (CC). Our objective was to use the unified national health record to define the epidemiology of AP in Scotland, with a specific focus on deterministic and prognostic factors for CC admission in AP. Setting: Health boards in Scotland (n=4). Participants: We included all individuals in a retrospective observational cohort with at least one episode of AP (ICD10 code K85) occurring in Scotland from 1 April 2009 to 31 March 2012. 3340 individuals were coded as AP. Methods: Data from 16 sources, spanning general practice, community prescribing, Accident and Emergency attendances, hospital in-patient, CC and mortality registries, were linked by a unique patient identifier in a national safe haven. Logistic regression and gamma models were used to define independent predictive factors for severe AP (sAP) requiring CC admission or leading to death. Results: 2053 individuals (61.5% (95% CI 59.8% to 63.2%)) met the definition for true AP (tAP). 368 patients (17.9% of tAP (95% CI 16.2% to 19.6%)) were admitted to CC. Predictors of sAP were pre-existing angina or hypertension, hypocalcaemia and age 30-39 years, if type 2 diabetes mellitus was present. The risk of sAP was lower in patients with multiple previous episodes of AP. In-hospital mortality in tAP was 5.0% (95% CI 4.1% to 5.9%) overall and 21.7% (95% CI 19.9% to 23.5%) in those with tAP necessitating CC admission. Conclusions: National record-linkage analysis of routinely collected data constitutes a powerful resource to model CC admission and prognosticate death during AP. Mortality in patients with AP who require CC admission remains high.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Soluble CTLA-4 attenuates T cell activation and modulates anti-tumor immunity

Peer reviewe

A new class of large-amplitude radial-mode hot subdwarf pulsators

Using high-cadence observations from the Zwicky Transient Facility at low Galactic latitudes, we have discovered a new class of pulsating, hot compact stars. We have found four candidates, exhibiting blue colors (g − r ≤ −0.1 mag), pulsation amplitudes of >5%, and pulsation periods of 200–475 s. Fourier transforms of the light curves show only one dominant frequency. Phase-resolved spectroscopy for three objects reveals significant radial velocity, T eff, and log(g) variations over the pulsation cycle, which are consistent with large-amplitude radial oscillations. The mean T eff and log(g) for these stars are consistent with hot subdwarf B (sdB) effective temperatures and surface gravities. We calculate evolutionary tracks using MESA and adiabatic pulsations using GYRE for low-mass, helium-core pre-white dwarfs (pre-WDs) and low-mass helium-burning stars. Comparison of low-order radial oscillation mode periods with the observed pulsation periods show better agreement with the pre-WD models. Therefore, we suggest that these new pulsators and blue large-amplitude pulsators (BLAPs) could be members of the same class of pulsators, composed of young ≈0.25–0.35 M ⊙ helium-core pre-WDs.Published versio

A New Class of Changing-Look LINERs

We report the discovery of six active galactic nuclei (AGN) caught "turning on" during the first nine months of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) survey. The host galaxies were classified as LINERs by weak narrow forbidden line emission in their archival SDSS spectra, and detected by ZTF as nuclear transients. In five of the cases, we found via follow-up spectroscopy that they had transformed into broad-line AGN, reminiscent of the changing-look LINER iPTF 16bco. In one case, ZTF18aajupnt/AT2018dyk, follow-up HST UV and ground-based optical spectra revealed the transformation into a narrow-line Seyfert 1 (NLS1) with strong [Fe VII, X, XIV] and He II 4686 coronal lines. Swift monitoring observations of this source reveal bright UV emission that tracks the optical flare, accompanied by a luminous soft X-ray flare that peaks ~60 days later. Spitzer follow-up observations also detect a luminous mid-infrared flare implying a large covering fraction of dust. Archival light curves of the entire sample from CRTS, ATLAS, and ASAS-SN constrain the onset of the optical nuclear flaring from a prolonged quiescent state. Here we present the systematic selection and follow-up of this new class of changing-look LINERs, compare their properties to previously reported changing-look Seyfert galaxies, and conclude that they are a unique class of transients well-suited to test the uncertain physical processes associated with the LINER accretion state.Comment: Submitted to ApJ, 31 pages, 17 Figures (excluding Appendix due to file size constraints but will be available in electronic version

Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 2)

Every day, malicious actors target emerging technologies and medical resilience or seek to wreak havoc in the wake of disasters brought on by climate change, energy insecurity, and supply-chain disruptions. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield is a handbook on how to strengthen critical infrastructure resilience in an era of emerging threats. The counterterrorism research produced for this volume is in alignment with NATO’s Warfighting Capstone Concept, which details how NATO Allies can transform and maintain their advantage despite new threats for the next two decades. The topics are rooted in NATO’s Seven Baseline requirements, which set the standard for enhancing resilience in every aspect of critical infrastructure and civil society. As terrorists hone their skills to operate lethal drones, use biometric data to target innocents, and take advantage of the chaos left by pandemics and natural disasters for nefarious purposes, NATO forces must be prepared to respond and prevent terrorist events before they happen. Big-data analytics provides potential for NATO states to receive early warning to prevent pandemics, cyberattacks, and kinetic attacks. NATO is perfecting drone operations through interoperability exercises, and space is being exploited by adversaries. Hypersonic weapons are actively being used on the battlefield, and satellites have been targeted to take down wind farms and control navigation. This handbook is a guide for the future, providing actionable information and recommendations to keep our democracies safe today and in the years to come.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1953/thumbnail.jp

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles.

OBJECTIVE: Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland. METHODS: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted. RESULTS: Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity