Drivers and trajectories of resistance to new first-line drug regimens for tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: New first-line drug regimens for treatment of tuberculosis (TB) are in clinical trials: emergence of resistance is a key concern. Because population-level data on resistance cannot be collected in advance, epidemiological models are important tools for understanding the drivers and dynamics of resistance before novel drug regimens are launched. METHODS: We developed a transmission model of TB after launch of a new drug regimen, defining drug-resistant TB (DR-TB) as resistance to the new regimen. The model is characterized by (1) the probability of acquiring resistance during treatment, (2) the transmission fitness of DR-TB relative to drug-susceptible TB (DS-TB), and (3) the probability of treatment success for DR-TB versus DS-TB. We evaluate the effect of each factor on future DR-TB prevalence, defined as the proportion of incident TB that is drug-resistant. RESULTS: Probability of acquired resistance was the strongest predictor of the DR-TB proportion in the first 5 years after the launch of a new drug regimen. Over a longer term, however, the DR-TB proportion was driven by the resistant population's transmission fitness and treatment success rates. Regardless of uncertainty in acquisition probability and transmission fitness, high levels (>10%) of drug resistance were unlikely to emerge within 50 years if, among all cases of TB that were detected, 85% of those with DR-TB could be appropriately diagnosed as such and then successfully treated. CONCLUSIONS: Short-term surveillance cannot predict long-term drug resistance trends after launch of novel first-line TB regimens. Ensuring high treatment success of drug-resistant TB through early diagnosis and appropriate second-line therapy can mitigate many epidemiological uncertainties and may substantially slow the emergence of drug-resistant TB

The Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of a Four-Month Regimen for First-Line Treatment of Active Tuberculosis in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: A 4-month first-line treatment regimen for tuberculosis disease (TB) is expected to have a direct impact on patient outcomes and societal costs, as well as an indirect impact on Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission. We aimed to estimate this combined impact in a high TB-burden country: South Africa. METHOD: An individual based M. tb transmission model was fitted to the TB burden of South Africa using a standard TB natural history framework. We measured the impact on TB burden from 2015-2035 of introduction of a non-inferior 4-month regimen replacing the standard 6-month regimen as first-line therapy. Impact was measured with respect to three separate baselines (Guidelines, Policy and Current), reflecting differences in adherence to TB and HIV treatment guidelines. Further scenario analyses considered the variation in treatment-related parameters and resistance levels. Impact was measured in terms of differences in TB burden and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) averted. We also examined the highest cost at which the new regimen would be cost-effective for several willingness-to-pay thresholds. RESULTS: It was estimated that a 4-month regimen would avert less than 1% of the predicted 6 million person years with TB disease in South Africa between 2015 and 2035. A similarly small impact was seen on deaths and DALYs averted. Despite this small impact, with the health systems and patient cost savings from regimen shortening, the 4-month regimen could be cost-effective at $436 [NA, 5983] (mean [range]) per month at a willingness-to-pay threshold of one GDP per capita ($6,618). CONCLUSION: The introduction of a non-inferior 4-month first-line TB regimen into South Africa would have little impact on the TB burden. However, under several scenarios, it is likely that the averted societal costs would make such a regimen cost-effective in South Africa

Individualizing management of extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis:diagnostics, treatment, and biomarkers

Contains fulltext : 170267.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access)INTRODUCTION: Success rates for treatment of extensively drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) are low due to limited treatment options, delayed diagnosis and inadequate health care infrastructure. Areas covered: This review analyses existing programmes of prevention, diagnosis and treatment of XDR-TB. Improved diagnostic procedures and rapid molecular tests help to select appropriate drugs and dosages. Drugs dosages can be further tailored to the specific conditions of the patient based on quantitative susceptibility testing of the M. tuberculosis isolate and use of therapeutic drug monitoring. Pharmacovigilance is important for preserving activity of the novel drugs bedaquiline and delamanid. Furthermore, biomarkers of treatment response must be developed and validated to guide therapeutic decisions. Expert commentary: Given the currently poor treatment outcomes and the association of XDR-TB with HIV in endemic regions, a more patient oriented approach regarding diagnostics, drug selection and tailoring and treatment evaluation will improve treatment outcome. The different areas of expertise should be covered by a multidisciplinary team and may involve the transition of patients from hospitalized to home or community-based treatment

Shortened first-line TB treatment in Brazil: potential cost savings for patients and health services.

BACKGROUND: Shortened treatment regimens for tuberculosis are under development to improve treatment outcomes and reduce costs. We estimated potential savings from a societal perspective in Brazil following the introduction of a hypothetical four-month regimen for tuberculosis treatment. METHODS: Data were gathered in ten randomly selected health facilities in Rio de Janeiro. Health service costs were estimated using an ingredient approach. Patient costs were estimated from a questionnaire administered to 126 patients. Costs per visits and per case treated were analysed according to the type of therapy: self-administered treatment (SAT), community- and facility-directly observed treatment (community-DOT, facility-DOT). RESULTS: During the last 2 months of treatment, the largest savings could be expected for community-DOT; on average USD 17,351-18,203 and USD 43,660-45,856 (bottom-up and top-down estimates) per clinic. Savings to patients could also be expected as the median (interquartile range) patient-related costs during the two last months were USD 108 (13-291), USD 93 (36-239) and USD 11 (7-126), respectively for SAT, facility-DOT and community-DOT. CONCLUSION: Introducing a four-month regimen may result in significant cost savings for both the health service and patients, especially the poorest. In particular, a community-DOT strategy, including treatment at home, could maximise health services savings while limiting patient costs. Our cost estimates are likely to be conservative because a 4-month regimen could hypothetically increase the proportion of patients cured by reducing the number of patients defaulting and we did not include the possible cost benefits from the subsequent prevention of costs due to downstream transmission averted and rapid clinical improvement with less side effects in the last two months

Implementation of a national anti-tuberculosis drug resistance survey in Tanzania

A drug resistance survey is an essential public health management tool for evaluating and improving the erformance of National Tuberculosis control programmes. The current manuscript describes the implementation of the first national drug resistance survey in Tanzania. Description of the implementation process of a national anti-tuberculosis drug esistance survey in Tanzania, in relation to the study protocol and Standard Operating Procedures. Factors contributing positively to the implementation of the survey were a continuous commitment of the key stakeholders, the existence of a well organized National Tuberculosis Programme, and a detailed design of cluster-specific arrangements for rapid sputum transportation. Factors contributing negatively to the implementation were a long delay between training and actual survey activities, limited monitoring of activities, and an unclear design of the data capture forms leading to difficulties in form-filling. Careful preparation of the survey, timing of planned activities, a strong emphasis on data capture tools and data management, and timely supervision are essential for a proper implementation of a national drug resistance survey

Rates of Anti-Tuberculosis Drug Resistance in Kampala-Uganda Are Low and Not Associated with HIV Infection

Background: Drug resistance among tuberculosis patients in sub-Saharan Africa is increasing, possibly due to association with HIV infection. We studied drug resistance and HIV infection in a representative sample of 533 smear-positive tuberculosis patients diagnosed in Kampala, Uganda. Methods/Principal Findings: Among 473 new patients, multidrug resistance was found in 5 (1.1%, 95% CI 0.3-2.5) and resistance to any drug in 57 (12.1%, 9.3-15.3). Among 60 previously treated patients this was 7 (11.7%, 4.8-22.6) and 17 (28.3%; 17.5-41.4), respectively. Of 517 patients with HIV results, 165 (31.9%, 27.9-36.1) tested positive. Neither multidrug (adjusted odds ratio (ORadj) 0.7; 95% CI 0.19-2.6) nor any resistance (ORadj 0.7; 0.43-1.3) was associated with HIV status. Primary resistance to any drug was more common among patients who had worked in health care (ORadj 3.5; 1.0-12.0). Conclusion/Significance: Anti-tuberculosis drug resistance rates in Kampala are low and not associated with HIV infection, but may be associated with exposure during health car

Scaling Up Programmatic Management of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis: A Prioritized Research Agenda

Frank Cobelens and colleagues outline key research questions that need to be addressed to maximize the impact of programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis

Spotting the old foe-revisiting the case definition for TB.

Disease case definitions are important instruments for clinical care, interventional research, and surveillance. Therefore, it is concerning that the current case definitions for tuberculosis remain underscored by the classic paradigm of binary states of latent infection and active disease, with a stepwise, linear transition under which symptoms, bacteriological positivity, and disease pathology are assumed to emerge broadly together (figure, A).1 This assumption has resulted in a reliance on symptom screening to distinguish these two states. However, in recent prevalence surveys, 40–79% of bacteriologically positive tuberculosis occurs in the absence of patient-recognised tuberculosis symptoms.2 Rather than explicitly addressing this discordance, tuberculosis case definitions are often ambiguous regarding tuberculosis symptoms, or internally inconsistent

Clinical features and pitfalls in the laboratory diagnosis of dengue in travellers

BACKGROUND: Several enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)-kits are commercially available for the rapid diagnosis of dengue infection, and have demonstrated good sensitivity and specificity in paired serum samples. In practice, however, often only one blood sample is available from febrile travellers returning from dengue endemic areas. METHODS: To evaluate the diagnostic value of positive dengue antibody-titres performed by a standard ELISA (PanBio IgM- and IgG-ELISA) in single serum samples (regarded as "probable infection"), 127 positive samples were further analyzed using envelope/membrane IgM-, and nonstructural protein 1 IgM- and IgG-ELISAs, immunofluorescence assays, and real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assays (RT-PCR). A combination of the test-results served as the diagnostic "gold standard". A total of 1,035 febrile travellers returning from dengue-endemic countries with negative dengue-serology and RT-PCR served as controls to compare clinical and haematological features. RESULTS: Overall, only 64 (positive predictive value = 50%) of the probable cases were confirmed by additional analysis and 54 (42.5%) were confirmed to be "false-positive". Rash was the only clinical feature significantly associated with confirmed dengue fever. The combination of thrombocytopenia and leucopenia was present in 40.4% of confirmed and in 6.1% of false-positive cases. Thus, the positive predictive value for the combination of positive PanBio-ELISA plus the two haematological features was 90.5%. CONCLUSION: The examination of paired serum samples is considered the most reliable serodiagnostic procedure for dengue. However, if only one blood sample is available, a single positive ELISA-result carries a high rate of false-positivity and should be confirmed using a second and more specific diagnostic technique. In the absence of further testing, platelet and white blood cell counts are helpful for the correct interpretation