A Note on the Time Series Measure of Conservatism

Asymmetric persistence of accounting income is often tested in a regression of changes in earnings on lagged changes in earnings, including an interaction term for negative changes (see Basu [1997] or Ball et al. [2009] for a recent overview). In this note we propose an alternative, but closely related measure of conservatism - regressing the changes in earnings on the lagged levels, similar to the threshold-unit root test specification of Enders and Granger [1998]. We argue that this approach has three distinct advantages compared to the conventional setup: (i) a smooth, non-oscillating impulse response pattern to an unexpected shock in earnings (ii) a return to the old equilibrium of earnings in the long run and (iii) it can be extended to higher order autoregressive processes. We illustrate the differences between the two approaches, when applied to a common data set of firms, as well as a data set from a Monte Carlo simulation.timely loss recognition, asymmetric persistence, conservatism

A Note on the Time Series Measure of Conservatism

Asymmetric persistence of accounting income is often tested in a regression of changes in earnings on lagged changes in earnings, including an interaction term for negative changes (see Basu [1997] or Ball et al. [2009] for a recent overview). In this note we propose an alternative, but closely related measure of conservatism - regressing the changes in earnings on the lagged levels, similar to the threshold-unit root test specification of Enders and Granger [1998]. We argue that this approach has three distinct advantages compared to the conventional setup: (i) a smooth, non-oscillating impulse response pattern to an unexpected shock in earnings (ii) a return to the old equilibrium of earnings in the long run and (iii) it can be extended to higher order autoregressive processes. We illustrate the differences between the two approaches, when applied to a common data set of firms, as well as a data set from a Monte Carlo simulation.Timely loss recognition, Asymmetric persistence, Conservatism

Phenomenological model for the gravitational-wave signal from precessing binary black holes with two-spin effects

The properties of compact binaries, such as masses and spins, are imprinted in the gravitational-waves they emit and can be measured using parameterised waveform models. Accurately and efficiently describing the complicated precessional dynamics of the various angular momenta of the system in these waveform models is the object of active investigation. One of the key models extensively used in the analysis of LIGO and Virgo data is the single-precessing-spin waveform model IMRPhenomPv2. In this article we present a new model IMRPhenomPv3 which includes the effects of two independent spins in the precession dynamics. Whereas IMRPhenomPv2 utilizes a single-spin frequency-dependent post-Newtonian rotation to describe precession effects, the improved model, IMRPhenomPv3, employs a double-spin rotation that is based on recent developments in the description of precessional dynamics. Besides double-spin precession, the improved model benefits from a more accurate description of precessional effects. We validate our new model against a large set of precessing numerical-relativity simulations. We find that IMRPhenomPv3 has better agreement with the inspiral portion of precessing binary-black-hole simulations and is more robust across a larger region of the parameter space than IMRPhenomPv2. As a first application we analyse, for the first time, the gravitational-wave event GW151226 with a waveform model that describes two-spin precession. Within statistical uncertainty our results are consistent with published results. IMRPhenomPv3 will allow studies of the measurability of individual spins of binary black holes using GWs and can be used as a foundation upon which to build further improvements, such as modeling precession through merger, extending to higher multipoles, and including tidal effects.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figure

Learning an Approximate Model Predictive Controller with Guarantees

A supervised learning framework is proposed to approximate a model predictive controller (MPC) with reduced computational complexity and guarantees on stability and constraint satisfaction. The framework can be used for a wide class of nonlinear systems. Any standard supervised learning technique (e.g. neural networks) can be employed to approximate the MPC from samples. In order to obtain closed-loop guarantees for the learned MPC, a robust MPC design is combined with statistical learning bounds. The MPC design ensures robustness to inaccurate inputs within given bounds, and Hoeffding's Inequality is used to validate that the learned MPC satisfies these bounds with high confidence. The result is a closed-loop statistical guarantee on stability and constraint satisfaction for the learned MPC. The proposed learning-based MPC framework is illustrated on a nonlinear benchmark problem, for which we learn a neural network controller with guarantees.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, to appear in IEEE Control Systems Letter

CP Violating Asymmetry in Stop Decay into Bottom and Chargino

In the MSSM with complex parameters, loop corrections to the decay of a stop into a bottom quark and a chargino can lead to a CP violating decay rate asymmetry. We calculate this asymmetry at full one-loop level and perform a detailed numerical study, analyzing the dependence on the parameters and complex phases involved. In addition, we take the Yukawa couplings of the top and bottom quark running. We account for the constraints on the parameters coming from several experimental limits. Asymmetries of several percent are obtained. We also comment on the feasibility of measuring this asymmetry at the LHC.Comment: Contributed talk given by Sebastian Frank in June 2009 at SUSY09 - 17th International Conference on Supersymmetry and the Unification of Fundamental Interactions, Northeastern University, Boston, USA. To appear in the AIP conference proceedings, 4 pages, 7 figures (fixed links in references

A new golden frog species of the genus Diasporus (Amphibia, Eleutherodactylidae) from the Cordillera Central, western Panama

We describe the frog species Diasporus citrinobapheussp. n. from the Cordillera Central of western Panama. The new species differs from all other species in its genus in coloration, disk cover and disk pad shape, skin texture, advertisement call, and size. It is most similar to Diasporus tigrillo, from which it differs in dorsal skin texture, relative tibia length, number of vomerine teeth, ventral coloration, dorsal markings, and relative tympanum size, and to Diasporus gularis, from which it can be distinguished by the lack of membranes between the toes, adult size, posterior thigh coloration, and position of the choanae. We provide data on morpho- logy, vocalization, and distribution of the new species, as well as brief information on its natural history.Describimos la especie de rana Diasporus citrinobapheus sp. n. de la Cordillera Central, occidente de Panamá. La nueva especie se distingue de otras especies del género por su coloración, su forma de la cubierta y la almohadilla de los discos, textura de la piel, canto de anúncio, y tamaño corporal. Se asemeja mas a D. tigrillo, del cual se distingue por la textura de la piel dorsal, longitud relativa de la tibia, número de dientes vomerianos, coloración ventral, patrón dorsal, y tamaño relativo del tímpano, y a D. gularis, del cual se diferencia por la ausencia de membranas entre los dedos de pie, tamaño corporal, coloración de la parte trasera del muslo, y posición de las coanas. Presentamos datos de la morfología, vocalización, y distribución de la nueva especie, así como notas concisas de su historia natural

Consumption habits and humps : [Version 23 June 2013]

We show that the optimal consumption of an individual over the life cycle can have the hump shape (inverted U-shape) observed empirically if the preferences of the individual exhibit internal habit formation. In the absence of habit formation, an impatient individual would prefer a decreasing consumption path over life. However, because of habit formation, a high initial consumption would lead to high required consumption in the future. To cover the future required consumption, wealth is set aside, but the necessary amount decreases with age which allows consumption to increase in the early part of life. At some age, the impatience outweighs the habit concerns so that consumption starts to decrease. We derive the optimal consumption strategy in closed form, deduce sufficient conditions for the presence of a consumption hump, and characterize the age at which the hump occurs. Numerical examples illustrate our findings. We show that our model calibrates well to U.S. consumption data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey

Does the Introduction of IFRS Change the Timeliness of Loss Recognition? Evidence from German Firms

In this paper, we re-evaluate the hypothesis that the introduction of the IFRS has an impact on the timeliness of loss recognition. We test this hypothesis in a data set of public German firms that report according to German-GAAP and IFRS, respectively. The parallel use of the two accounting standards in Germany provides a unique opportunity to contribute to the academic discussion, as well as to the current policy debate on regulatory reform in Germany. Starting from the standard time series concept of conditional conservatism that was initially proposed by Basu (1997), we implement a wide range of test specifications, including (i) a threshold unit-root test specification; (ii) a multivariate approach to outlier detection and (iii) various forms of controlling for fixed effects. We do not find evidence that IFRS and German-GAAP firms differ with respect to their timeliness of loss recognition in any of these specifications - a result that appears surprising in light of the more prudent regulation in the German-GAAP, but is consistent with some earlier findings in the literature.IFRS, German-GAAP, Timely loss recognition, Conservatism

Dilute and dense axion stars

Axion stars are hypothetical objects formed of axions, obtained as localized and coherently oscillating solutions to their classical equation of motion. Depending on the value of the field amplitude at the core $|\theta_0| \equiv |\theta(r=0)|$, the equilibrium of the system arises from the balance of the kinetic pressure and either self-gravity or axion self-interactions. Starting from a general relativistic framework, we obtain the set of equations describing the configuration of the axion star, which we solve as a function of $|\theta_0|$. For small $|\theta_0| \lesssim 1$, we reproduce results previously obtained in the literature, and we provide arguments for the stability of such configurations in terms of first principles. We compare qualitative analytical results with a numerical calculation. For large amplitudes $|\theta_0| \gtrsim 1$, the axion field probes the full non-harmonic QCD chiral potential and the axion star enters the {\it dense} branch. Our numerical solutions show that in this latter regime the axions are relativistic, and that one should not use a single frequency approximation, as previously applied in the literature. We employ a multi-harmonic expansion to solve the relativistic equation for the axion field in the star, and demonstrate that higher modes cannot be neglected in the dense regime. We interpret the solutions in the dense regime as pseudo-breathers, and show that the life-time of such configurations is much smaller than any cosmological time scale.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures. v2: added references, matches published versio