Seismic risk of infrastructure systems with treatment of and sensitivity to epistemic uncertainty

Modern society’s very existence is tied to the proper and reliable functioning of its Critical Infrastructure (CI) systems. In the seismic risk assessment of an infrastructure, taking into account all the relevant uncertainties affecting the problem is crucial. While both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties affect the estimate of seismic risk to an infrastructure and should be considered, the focus herein is on the latter. After providing an up-to-date literature review about the treatment of and sensitivity to epistemic uncertainty, this paper presents a comprehensive framework for seismic risk assessment of interdependent spatially distributed infrastructure systems that accounts for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties and provides confidence in the estimate, as well as sensitivity of uncertainty in the output to the components of epistemic uncertainty in the input. The logic tree approach is used for the treatment of epistemic uncertainty and for the sensitivity analysis, whose results are presented through tornado diagrams. Sensitivity is also evaluated by elaborating the logic tree results through weighted ANOVA. The formulation is general and can be applied to risk assessment problems involving not only infrastructural but also structural systems. The presented methodology was implemented into an open-source software, OOFIMS, and applied to a synthetic city composed of buildings and a gas network and subjected to seismic hazard. The gas system’s performance is assessed through a flow-based analysis. The seismic hazard, the vulnerability assessment and the evaluation of the gas system’s operational state are addressed with a simulation-based approach. The presence of two systems (buildings and gas network) proves the capability to handle system interdependencies and highlights that uncertainty in models/parameters related to one system can affect uncertainty in the output related to dependent systems

GENERATION OF UNIFORM HAZARD FLOOR RESPONSE SPECTRA FOR LINEAR MDOF STRUCTURES

This paper presents a probabilistic seismic demand model for predicting the pseudo-acceleration response of a linear nonstructural component attached to a linear structure. The model relates the response of the component with the pseudo-acceleration response of the generic mode of vibration of the supporting structure. Interaction between component and structure is ignored. Independency of the model on the specific characteristics of seismic hazard at the site is showed. The model is used to develop a method for direct generation of uniform hazard floor response spectra. By using the method floor spectra are determined through a closed-form expression, given the mean annual frequency of interest, the non-structural component damping ratio, the modal properties of the structure, and three uniform hazard spectra representing seismic hazard at the site

Seismic Vulnerability of the Italian Roadway Bridge Stock

This study focuses on the seismic vulnerability evaluation of the Italian roadway bridge stock, within the framework of a Civil Protection sponsored project. A comprehensive database of existing bridges (17,000 bridges with different level of knowledge) was implemented. At the core of the study stands a procedure for automatically carrying out state-of-the-art analytical evaluation of fragility curves for two performance levels – damage and collapse – on an individual bridge basis. A webGIS was developed to handle data and results. The main outputs are maps of bridge seismic risk (from the fragilities and the hazard maps) at the national level and real-time scenario damage-probability maps (from the fragilities and the scenario shake maps). In the latter case the webGIS also performs network analysis to identify routes to be followed by rescue teams. Consistency of the fragility derivation over the entire bridge stock is regarded as a major advantage of the adopted approach

Full genome sequence-based comparative study of wild-type and vaccine strains of infectious laryngotracheitis virus from Italy

Infectious laryngotracheitis (ILT) is an acute and highly contagious respiratory disease of chickens caused by an alphaherpesvirus, infectious laryngotracheitis virus (ILTV). Recently, full genome sequences of wild-type and vaccine strains have been determined worldwide, but none was from Europe. The aim of this study was to determine and analyse the complete genome sequences of five ILTV strains. Sequences were also compared to reveal the similarity of strains across time and to discriminate between wild-type and vaccine strains. Genomes of three ILTV field isolates from outbreaks occurred in Italy in 1980,2007 and 2011, and two commercial chicken embryo origin (CEO) vaccines were sequenced using the 454 Life Sciences technology. The comparison with the Serva genome showed that 35 open reading frames (ORFs) differed across the five genomes. Overall, 54 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 27 amino acid differences in 19 ORFs and two insertions in the UL52 and ORFC genes were identified. Similarity among the field strains and between the field and the vaccine strains ranged from 99.96% to 99.99%. Phylogenetic analysis revealed a close relationship among them, as well. This study generated data on genomic variation among Italian ILTV strains revealing that, even though the genetic variability of the genome is well conserved across time and between wild-type and vaccine strains, some mutations may help in differentiating among them and maybe involved in ILTV virulence/attenuation. The results of this study can contribute to the understanding of the molecular bases of ILTV pathogenicity and provide genetic markers to differentiate between wild-type and vaccine strains

Canopy uptake dominates nighttime carbonyl sulfide fluxes in a boreal forest

Nighttime vegetative uptake of carbonyl sulfide (COS) can exist due to the incomplete closure of stomata and the light independence of the enzyme carbonic anhydrase, which complicates the use of COS as a tracer for gross primary productivity (GPP). In this study we derived nighttime COS fluxes in a boreal forest (the SMEAR II station in Hyytiälä, Finland; 61°51′ N, 24°17′ E; 181 m a.s.l.) from June to November 2015 using two different methods: eddy-covariance (EC) measurements (FCOS-EC) and the radon-tracer method (FCOS-Rn). The total nighttime COS fluxes averaged over the whole measurement period were −6.8 ± 2.2 and −7.9 ± 3.8 pmol m−2 s−1 for FCOS-Rn and FCOS-EC, respectively, which is 33–38 % of the average daytime fluxes and 21 % of the total daily COS uptake. The correlation of 222Rn (of which the source is the soil) with COS (average R2  =  0.58) was lower than with CO2 (0.70), suggesting that the main sink of COS is not located at the ground. These observations are supported by soil chamber measurements that show that soil contributes to only 34–40 % of the total nighttime COS uptake. We found a decrease in COS uptake with decreasing nighttime stomatal conductance and increasing vapor-pressure deficit and air temperature, driven by stomatal closure in response to a warm and dry period in August. We also discuss the effect that canopy layer mixing can have on the radon-tracer method and the sensitivity of (FCOS-EC) to atmospheric turbulence. Our results suggest that the nighttime uptake of COS is mainly driven by the tree foliage and is significant in a boreal forest, such that it needs to be taken into account when using COS as a tracer for GPP

Magnetic switching modes for exchange spring systems ErFe2/YFe2/DyFe2/YFe2 with competing anisotropies

The magnetization reversal processes of ½10nm ErFe2=nYFe2=4nm DyFe2=nYFe2" multilayer films with a (110) growth axis and a variable YFe2 layer thickness n are investigated. The magnetically soft YFe2 compound acts as a separator between the hard rare earth (RE) ErFe2 and DyFe2 compounds, each of them bearing different temperature dependent magnetic anisotropy properties. Magnetic measurements of a system with n ¼ 20nm reveal the existence of three switching modes: an independent switching mode at low temperatures, an ErFe2 spin flop switching mode at medium high temperatures, and an YFe2 dominated switching mode at high temperatures. The measurements are in qualitative agreement with the findings of micromagnetic simulations which are used to illustrate the switching modes. Further simulations for a varied YFe2 layer thickness n ranging from 2 to 40nm are carried out. Quantitative criteria are defined to classify the reversal behavior, and the resultant switching modes are laid out in a map with regard to n and the temperature T. A new coupled switching mode emerges above a threshold temperature for samples with thin YFe2 separation layers as a consequence of the exchange coupling between the magnetically hard ErFe2 and DyFe2 layers. It reflects the increasing competition of the two conflicting anisotropies to dominate the magnetic switching states of both RE compounds under decreasing n

Load Path Effect on the Response of Slender Lightly Reinforced Square RC Columns under Biaxial Bending

This paper presents an experimental investigation of the effect of load path on force-displacement response, damage patterns, and failure modes of slender lightly reinforced concrete (RC) columns. A review of available experimental tests, which include columns subjected to multiaxial loading protocols, is first presented. Next, a new experimental campaign on 18 column specimens tested under constant axial load and lateral displacement-controlled load paths is described. The results of the tests performed confirm that the response under biaxial load paths is qualitatively and quantitatively different from that observed for uniaxial load paths. The first and foremost qualitative difference is that the damage mechanisms change and the failure mode can change as a result. This, in turn, leads to quantitative differences in ultimate and collapse deformation, and therefore ductility and hysteretic dissipation capacity

Cu-exchanged 3D-printed geopolymer/ZSM-5 monolith for selective catalytic reduction of NOx

Cu-exchanged zeolites with MFI structure, such as ZSM-5, represent effective catalysts for SCR processes when the application requires a good thermal stability under a wide range of temperature as for the after-treatment of exhaust gas from diesel engine. The production of zeolite in a structured form, mandatorily required for mobile applications, is quite complex due to the poor adhesion of the material. In this paper 3D-printed geopolymers containing about 37 % ZSM-5 are proposed as potentially structured catalysts for SCR applications. The production of the monolith and the pre-treatment necessary to introduce copper as active exchanged cation are investigated. The effect of pre-treatments on the physical and morphological structure of both geopolymer and zeolite and on the nature of copper introduced in the subsequent step was studied using characterization techniques such as SEM, XRD, N2 physisorption and Temperature Programmed Reduction (TPR)

Removal of ammonium from wastewater with geopolymer sorbents fabricated via additive manufacturing

Geopolymers have been recently explored as sorbents for wastewater treatment, thanks to their mechanical and chemical stability and to their low-energy manufacturing process. One specific application could be the removal of ammonium (NH4+) through exchange with Na+ ions. Additive manufacturing (AM) represents an especially interesting option for fabrication, as it allows to tailor the size, distribution, shape, and interconnectivity of pores, and therefore the access to charge-bearing sites. The present study provides a proof of concept for NH4+ removal from wastewater using porous geopolymer components fabricated via direct ink writing (DIW) AM approach. A metakaolin-based ink was employed for the fabrication of a log-pile structure with 45\ub0 rotation between layers, producing continuous yet tortuous macropores which are responsible for the high permeability of the sorbents. The ink consolidates in an amorphous, mesoporous network, with the mesopores acting as preferential sites for ion exchange. The printed sorbents were characterized for their physicochemical and mechanical properties and the NH4+ removal capacity in continuous-flow column experiments by using a model effluent. The lattices present high permeability and high cation exchange capacity and maintained a high amount of active ions after four cycles, allowing to reuse them multiple times

Research needs towards a resilient community: Vulnerability reduction, infrastructural systems model, loss assessment, resilience-based design and emergency management

Most of the literature on resilience is devoted to its assessment. It seems time to move from analysis to design, to develop the tools needed to enhance resilience. Resilience enhancement, a close relative of the less fashionable risk mitigation, adds to the latter, at least in the general perception, a systemic dimension. Resilience is often paired with community, and the latter is a system. This chapter therefore discusses strategies to enhance resilience, endorses one of prevention rather than cure, and focuses in the remainder on the role played by systemic analysis, i.e. the analysis of the built environment modelled beyond a simple collection of physical assets, with due care to the associated interdependencies. Research needs are identified and include challenges in network modelling, the replacement of generic fragility curves for components, how to deal with evolving state of information