Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) applies a predominantly deterministic framework to make detailed predictions (meter scale) of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications (i.e., nowcasts and multiday forecasts), and future climate scenarios (i.e., sea-level rise + storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm hazards information that may be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. The prototype system, developed for the California coast, uses the global WAVEWATCH III wave model, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry-based global tide model, and atmospheric-forcing data from either the US National Weather Service (operational mode) or Global Climate Models (future climate mode), to determine regional wave and water-level boundary conditions. These physical processes are dynamically downscaled using a series of nested Delft3D-WAVE (SWAN) and Delft3D-FLOW (FLOW) models and linked at the coast to tightly spaced XBeach (eXtreme Beach) cross-shore profile models and a Bayesian probabilistic cliff failure model. Hindcast testing demonstrates that, despite uncertainties in preexisting beach morphology over the ~500 km alongshore extent of the pilot study area, CoSMoS effectively identifies discrete sections of the coast (100s of meters) that are vulnerable to coastal hazards under a range of current and future oceanographic forcing conditions, and is therefore an effective tool for operational and future climate scenario planning.Keywords: Hazards, Erosion, Inundation, Modeling, Beach, Cliff, Storm

Quantifying the overwash component of barrier island morphodynamics : Onslow Beach, NC

A quantification of the role that barrier island overwash plays in the evolution of Onslow Beach, a barrier island located on Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, is presented. Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and sediment vibracores provide an estimate of the relevant-sand prism above a silty/peat contact underlying the island. The average thickness from the surface, as determined from lidar, to this geologically-defined base, is less than 1 m and equates a total volume of approximately 1.8 ± 1.1 × 106 m3 over the 4.8 km stretch of Onslow Beach from 1 km north of the New River Inlet to Riseley Pier (~ 2 km2). Approximately 39% of the relevant-sand prism (680 ± 215 x 103 m3) is contained within the area of the island currently exhibiting signs of overwash events (i.e., the active overwash complex). Based upon the average cumulative thickness of distinct washover facies within 12 sediment cores (52 cm) and the surface area of the active overwash region, it is estimated that the volume sedimentologically distinct washover deposits equals 199 ± 88 × 103 m3 (approximately 29% of the active overwash complex or 11% of the entire relevant-sand prism). A time series of aerial imagery from 1938 to 2008 details the spatial and temporal trends in migration of both the wet/dry line (a shoreline proxy) and the vegetation line (indicating the landward extent of overwash). Long-term shoreline erosion rates in excess of 3 m/yr occurred over the southern portion of Onslow Beach while the northern portion experienced up to 1.7 m/yr of accretion within the same 80-year time span. Between 1938 and 2008, the vegetation line moved an average of 85 m landward over the length of the entire island and over 450 m in overwash sites at the southern end of the island where shoreline erosion rates are highest. A comparison with long-term shoreline change rates suggests that a simple linear relationship between spatial and temporal variability in shoreline behavior and volume of the relevant-sand prism does not exist. Trends based upon the past 80 years suggest that a positive correlation exists between storm frequency and overwash extent. Furthermore, the region experiencing the highest rates of shoreline erosion and the highest occurrence of overwash does not coincide with the area regularly subject to military training activities. These data suggest that natural forcings (sea level, wind and wave energy, geology, etc.) exert first-order control on the evolution of this barrier island. The ability to quantify and evaluate the relative importance of such forces is paramount to understanding how, and over what timescales, the nearshore environment responds to changes in external forcings (e.g., sea-level rise, storms, etc.) and, in turn, is fundamental to the development of reliable forecasts of shoreline trends and storm susceptibility models

Sr-Nd isotopic analyses of sand-sized sediment from the San Francisco Bay coastal system

A diverse suite of geochemical tracers, including 87Sr/86Sr and 143Nd/144Nd isotope ratios, the rare earth elements (REEs), and select trace elements were used to determine sand-sized sediment provenance and transport pathways within the San Francisco Bay coastal system. This study complements a large interdisciplinary effort (Barnard et al., 2012) that seeks to better understand recent geomorphic change in a highly urbanized and dynamic estuarine-coastal setting. Sand-sized sediment provenance in this geologically complex system is important to estuarine resource managers and was assessed by examining the geographic distribution of this suite of geochemical tracers from the primary sources (fluvial and rock) throughout the bay, adjacent coast, and beaches. Due to their intrinsic geochemical nature, 143Nd/144Nd isotopic ratios provide the most resolved picture of where sediment in this system is likely sourced and how it moves through this estuarine system into the Pacific Ocean. For example, Nd isotopes confirm that the predominant source of sand-sized sediment to Suisun Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Central Bay is the Sierra Nevada Batholith via the Sacramento River, with lesser contributions from the Napa and San Joaquin Rivers. Isotopic ratios also reveal hot-spots of local sediment accumulation, such as the basalt and chert deposits around the Golden Gate Bridge and the high magnetite deposits of Ocean Beach. Sand-sized sediment that exits San Francisco Bay accumulates on the ebb-tidal delta and is in part conveyed southward by long-shore currents. Broadly, the geochemical tracers reveal a complex story of multiple sediment sources, dynamic intra-bay sediment mixing and reworking, and eventual dilution and transport by energetic marine processes. Combined geochemical results provide information on sediment movement into and through San Francisco Bay and further our understanding of how sustained anthropogenic activities which limit sediment inputs to the system (e.g., dike and dam construction) as well as those which directly remove sediments from within the Bay, such as aggregate mining and dredging, can have long-lasting effects

Mudflat Morphodynamics and the Impact of Sea Level Rise in South San Francisco Bay

Estuarine tidal mudflats form unique habitats and maintain valuable ecosystems. Historic measurements of a mudflat in San Fancsico Bay over the past 150 years suggest the development of a rather stable mudflat profile. This raises questions on its origin and governing processes as well as on the mudflats’ faith under scenarios of sea level rise and decreasing sediment supply. We developed a 1D morphodynamic profile model (Delft3D) that is able to reproduce the 2011 measured mudflat profile. The main, schematised, forcings of the model are a constant tidal cycle and constant wave action. The model shows that wave action suspends sediment that is transported landward during flood. A depositional front moves landward until landward bed levels are high enough to carry an equal amount of sediment back during ebb. This implies that, similar to observations, the critical shear stress for erosion is regularly exceeded during the tidal cycle and that modelled equilibrium conditions include high suspended sediment concentrations at the mudflat. Shear stresses are highest during low water, while shear stresses are lower than critical (and highest at the landward end) along the mudflat during high water. Scenarios of sea level rise and decreasing sediment supply drown the mudflat. In addition, the mudflat becomes more prone to channel incision because landward accumulation is hampered. This research suggests that sea level rise is a serious threat to the presence of many estuarine intertidal mudflats, adjacent salt marshes and their associated ecological values.Coastal Engineerin