Flood risk management: What are the main drivers of prevention?

4 p.In a changing and unstable climate, climatic flood risk will increase: more intense and more extreme events would be more frequent. Higher climatic risk will turn into higher socio-economic risk, unless we implement appropriate adaption measures to prevent the risk. * Spatial hydro-economic approaches are widely used to estimate the risk and is a strong basis to elicit flood damage drivers to target prevention policy. Then, locally identified risks must give rise to prevention measures adapted to the local socio-economic, environmental and hydrological reality. * Flood warning alone cannot prevent the risk. Emergency and divulgation plans should enter in the equation of risk prevention in the institutional set of measures. * Infrastructural measures of defense have been an historical answer to manage the risk. In a changing climate their efficiency to alone protect goods and lifes has been questioned. Environmental measures are designed to recover natural dynamic of rivers. They can provide the flexibility required to adapt to uncertain environments. * Flood risk adaptation measures must involve both the private and public sectors to reduce vulnerability and exposure. With a higher climatic risk, financial insurance might become costlier. Self protection measures, designed to reduce the probability of suffering damages due to the flood can be promoted and supported by the institutional sector via diagnostic of vulnerability of the private sector

Exploitation of soil biota ecosystem services in agriculture: a bioeconomic approach

24 p.This paper analyzes the interactions between soil biota and agricultural practices in the exploitation of soil ecosystem services. A theoretical bioeconomic model stylized this set of interactions and combined a production function approach with optimal control theory. In the model, a farmer decides his optimal use of external input and land use given that (i) land uses modify soil biota composition, (ii) the external input reduces soil biota population. The results show how the combination of ecological interactions, farmer\\\'s expectations on the evolution of the stock of soil biota and the technology of production determines the optimal decisions. The interpretation of the results helps to understand why and under which circumstances a sustainable or a non-sustainable use of soil ecosystem services may be optimal for farmers. A particular emphasis given to the role of property rights and time preferences in the use of soil biota services reveals the ambiguity of their role on the conservation of soil ecosystem services generated by soil biota

Climate change, flood risk and adaptation measures: challenges in assessing damage and evaluating of measures

Las inundaciones suponen un importante riesgo para el bienestar de las personas por el gran impacto que causan. Por ello, distintas instituciones han emprendido planes para la mejora de sistemas de alerta y prevención, mejoras que requieren información lo más precisa posible sobre los riesgos a los que se enfrenta la población y el entorno, los cuales se definen como la combinación de la probabilidad de darse un determinado suceso y el daño que potencialmente causaría. Este estudio tiene como fin avanzar en el establecimiento de metodologías que faciliten el análisis del riesgo, para lo cual se examinan varios de los estudios realizados en este contexto con el objetivo de extraer pautas metodológicas que puedan ser utilizadas en proyectos fluviales y áreas costeras.Floods generate a considerable risk to human wellbeing due to the great impacts they cause. This is the reason behind the plans developed by different institutions that have the objective of improving alert and prevention systems. This improvement requires information as precise as possible about the risks population and environment are facing, risks that are defined as the combination of the probability of a certain event and the damage it would cause. This study has therefore the aim of helping the development of different methodologies capable of making easier the analysis of risk. In order to achieve this objective, it examines various studies performed in this context, with the intention of extracting methodological guidelines to be used in future projects in basins and coastal areas.Ibon Galarraga y Sébastien Foudi agradecen el apoyo del Gobierno Vasco a través del programa BERC 2018-2021 y al Ministerio de Economía y Productividad MINECO a través de la acreditación de excelencia BC3 María de Maeztu MDM-2017-0714

Urban research at BC3: How climate change science can support urban policy making

4 p.Cities are becoming key actors to successfully achieve climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives. . -Science can play a crucial role in supporting local decision-makers by providing top level information and applying or developing ad-hoc methodologies . -The case studies presented here show that there are many opportunities for science-policy collaboration at the city level . -The urban scale allows a higher visibility of this collaboration and can contribute to strengthening this link at different scales

Emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.620 with variant of concern-like mutations and deletions.

Distinct SARS-CoV-2 lineages, discovered through various genomic surveillance initiatives, have emerged during the pandemic following unprecedented reductions in worldwide human mobility. We here describe a SARS-CoV-2 lineage - designated B.1.620 - discovered in Lithuania and carrying many mutations and deletions in the spike protein shared with widespread variants of concern (VOCs), including E484K, S477N and deletions HV69Δ, Y144Δ, and LLA241/243Δ. As well as documenting the suite of mutations this lineage carries, we also describe its potential to be resistant to neutralising antibodies, accompanying travel histories for a subset of European cases, evidence of local B.1.620 transmission in Europe with a focus on Lithuania, and significance of its prevalence in Central Africa owing to recent genome sequencing efforts there. We make a case for its likely Central African origin using advanced phylogeographic inference methodologies incorporating recorded travel histories of infected travellers

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Flood risk management: What are the main drivers of prevention?

4 p.In a changing and unstable climate, climatic flood risk will increase: more intense and more extreme events would be more frequent. Higher climatic risk will turn into higher socio-economic risk, unless we implement appropriate adaption measures to prevent the risk. * Spatial hydro-economic approaches are widely used to estimate the risk and is a strong basis to elicit flood damage drivers to target prevention policy. Then, locally identified risks must give rise to prevention measures adapted to the local socio-economic, environmental and hydrological reality. * Flood warning alone cannot prevent the risk. Emergency and divulgation plans should enter in the equation of risk prevention in the institutional set of measures. * Infrastructural measures of defense have been an historical answer to manage the risk. In a changing climate their efficiency to alone protect goods and lifes has been questioned. Environmental measures are designed to recover natural dynamic of rivers. They can provide the flexibility required to adapt to uncertain environments. * Flood risk adaptation measures must involve both the private and public sectors to reduce vulnerability and exposure. With a higher climatic risk, financial insurance might become costlier. Self protection measures, designed to reduce the probability of suffering damages due to the flood can be promoted and supported by the institutional sector via diagnostic of vulnerability of the private sector