Quickest Detection and Forecast of Pandemic Outbreaks: Analysis of COVID-19 Waves

The COVID-19 pandemic has, worldwide and up to December 2020, caused over 1.7 million deaths, and put the world's most advanced healthcare systems under heavy stress. In many countries, drastic restriction measures adopted by political authorities, such as national lockdowns, have not prevented the outbreak of new pandemic's waves. In this article, we propose an integrated detection-estimation-forecasting framework that, using publicly available data published by the national authorities, is designed to: (i) learn relevant features of the epidemic (e.g., the infection rate); (ii) detect as quickly as possible the onset (or the termination) of an exponential growth of the contagion; and (iii) reliably forecast the epidemic evolution. The proposed solution is validated by analyzing the COVID-19 second and third waves in the USA.Comment: Submitted to IEEE Communications Magazine, feature topic "Networking Technologies to Combat the COVID-19 Pandemic

Liver transplantation for Wilson's disease: The burden of neurological and psychiatric disorders

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Space-based Global Maritime Surveillance. Part I: Satellite Technologies

Maritime surveillance (MS) is crucial for search and rescue operations, fishery monitoring, pollution control, law enforcement, migration monitoring, and national security policies. Since the early days of seafaring, MS has been a critical task for providing security in human coexistence. Several generations of sensors providing detailed maritime information have become available for large offshore areas in real time: maritime radar sensors in the 1950s and the automatic identification system (AIS) in the 1990s among them. However, ground-based maritime radars and AIS data do not always provide a comprehensive and seamless coverage of the entire maritime space. Therefore, the exploitation of space-based sensor technologies installed on satellites orbiting around the Earth, such as satellite AIS data, synthetic aperture radar, optical sensors, and global navigation satellite systems reflectometry, becomes crucial for MS and to complement the existing terrestrial technologies. In the first part of this work, we provide an overview of the main available space-based sensors technologies and present the advantages and limitations of each technology in the scope of MS. The second part, related to artificial intelligence, signal processing and data fusion techniques, is provided in a companion paper, titled: "Space-based Global Maritime Surveillance. Part II: Artificial Intelligence and Data Fusion Techniques" [1].Comment: This paper has been submitted to IEEE Aerospace and Electronic Systems Magazin

Clinical predictors of antipsychotic treatment resistance: Development and internal validation of a prognostic prediction model by the STRATA-G consortium

Introduction Our aim was to, firstly, identify characteristics at first-episode of psychosis that are associated with later antipsychotic treatment resistance (TR) and, secondly, to develop a parsimonious prediction model for TR. Methods We combined data from ten prospective, first-episode psychosis cohorts from across Europe and categorised patients as TR or non-treatment resistant (NTR) after a mean follow up of 4.18 years (s.d. = 3.20) for secondary data analysis. We identified a list of potential predictors from clinical and demographic data recorded at first-episode. These potential predictors were entered in two models: a multivariable logistic regression to identify which were independently associated with TR and a penalised logistic regression, which performed variable selection, to produce a parsimonious prediction model. This model was internally validated using a 5-fold, 50-repeat cross-validation optimism-correction. Results Our sample consisted of N = 2216 participants of which 385 (17 %) developed TR. Younger age of psychosis onset and fewer years in education were independently associated with increased odds of developing TR. The prediction model selected 7 out of 17 variables that, when combined, could quantify the risk of being TR better than chance. These included age of onset, years in education, gender, BMI, relationship status, alcohol use, and positive symptoms. The optimism-corrected area under the curve was 0.59 (accuracy = 64 %, sensitivity = 48 %, and specificity = 76 %). Implications Our findings show that treatment resistance can be predicted, at first-episode of psychosis. Pending a model update and external validation, we demonstrate the potential value of prediction models for TR.Funding: This work was supported by a Stratified Medicine Programme grant to JHM from the Medical Research Council (grant number MR/L011794/1 which funded the research and supported S.E.S., D.A., A.F.P, L.K., R.M.M., D.S., J.T.R.W, & J.H.M.); funding from the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at South London and Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust and King's College London to D.A. and D.S; and funding from the Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) South London at King's College Hospital National Health Service Foundation Trust to S.E.S. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the Medical Research Council, National Health Service, the National Institute for Health Research, or the Department of Health. The AESOP (London, UK) cohort was funded by the UK Medical Research Council (Ref: G0500817). The Belfast (UK) cohort was funded by the Research and Development Office of Northern Ireland. The Bologna (Italy) cohort was funded by the European Community's Seventh Framework Program under grant agreement (agreement No.HEALTH-F2-2010–241909, Project EU-GEI). The GAP (London, UK) cohort was funded by the UK National Institute of Health Research(NIHR) Specialist Biomedical Research Centre for Mental Health, South London and Maudsley NHS Mental Health Foundation Trust (SLaM) and the Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology, and Neuroscience at King's College London; Psychiatry Research Trust; Maudsley Charity Research Fund; and the European Community's Seventh Framework Program grant (agreement No. HEALTH-F2-2009-241909, Project EU-GEI). The Lausanne (Switzerland) cohort was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (no. 320030_135736/1 to P.C. and K.Q.D., no 320030-120686, 324730-144064 and 320030-173211 to C.B.E and P.C., and no 171804 to LA); National Center of Competence in Research (NCCR) “SYNAPSY - The Synaptic Bases of Mental Diseases” from the Swiss National Science Foundation (no 51AU40_125759 to PC and KQD); and Fondation Alamaya (to KQD). The Oslo (Norway) cohort was funded by the Research Council of Norway (#223273/F50, under the Centers of Excellence funding scheme, #300309, #283798) and the South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority (#2006233, #2006258, #2011085, #2014102, #2015088 to IM, #2017-112). The Paris (France) cohort was funded by European Community's Seventh Framework Program grant (agreement No. HEALTH-F2-2010–241909, Project EU-GEI). The Prague (Czech Republic) cohort was funded by the Ministry of Health of the Czech Republic (Grant Number: NU20-04-00393). The Santander (Spain) cohort was funded by the following grants (to B.C.F): Instituto de Salud Carlos III, FIS 00/3095, PI020499, PI050427, PI060507, Plan Nacional de Drogas Research Grant 2005-Orden sco/3246/2004, and SENY Fundatio Research Grant CI 2005-0308007, Fundacion Marques de Valdecilla A/02/07 and API07/011. SAF2016-76046-R and SAF2013-46292-R (MINECO and FEDER). The West London (UK) cohort was funded The Wellcome Trust (Grant Number: 042025; 052247; 064607)

First observation of quantum interference in the process phi -> KS KL ->pi+pi-pi+pi-: a test of quantum mechanics and CPT symmetry

We present the first observation of quantum interference in the process phi -> KS KL ->pi+pi-pi+pi-. This analysis is based on data collected with the KLOE detector at the e^+e^- collider DAFNE in 2001--2002 for an integrated luminosity of about 380pb^-1. Fits to the distribution of Delta t, the difference between the two kaon decay times, allow tests of the validity of quantum mechanics and CPT symmetry. No deviations from the expectations of quantum mechanics and CPT symmetry have been observed. New or improved limits on various decoherence and CPT violation parameters have been obtainedComment: submitted to Physics Letter B one number changed old:gamma=(1.1+2.9-2.4)10^-21 GeV new:(1.3+2.8-2.4)10^-21GeV corrected typo

Study of the a_0(980) meson via the radiative decay phi->eta pi^0 gamma with the KLOE detector

We have studied the phi->a_0(980) gamma process with the KLOE detector at the Frascati phi-factory DAPhNE by detecting the phi->eta pi^0 gamma decays in the final states with eta->gamma gamma and eta->pi^+ pi^- pi^0. We have measured the branching ratios for both final states: Br(phi->eta pi^0 gamma)=(7.01 +/- 0.10 +/- 0.20)x10^-5 and (7.12 +/- 0.13 +/- 0.22)x10^-5 respectively. We have also extracted the a_0(980) mass and its couplings to eta pi^0, K^+ K^-, and to the phi meson from the fit of the eta pi^0 invariant mass distributions using different phenomenological models.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures, submitted to Physics Letters B. Corrected typos in eq.

Cognitive performance at first episode of psychosis and the relationship with future treatment resistance: Evidence from an international prospective cohort study

Background: Antipsychotic treatment resistance affects up to a third of individuals with schizophrenia, with recent research finding systematic biological differences between antipsychotic resistant and responsive patients. Our aim was to determine whether cognitive impairment at first episode significantly differs between future antipsychotic responders and resistant cases. Methods: Analysis of data from seven international cohorts of first-episode psychosis (FEP) with cognitive data at baseline (N = 683) and follow-up data on antipsychotic treatment response: 605 treatment responsive and 78 treatment resistant cases. Cognitive measures were grouped into seven cognitive domains based on the preexisting literature. We ran multiple imputation for missing data and used logistic regression to test for associations between cognitive performance at FEP and treatment resistant status at follow-up. Results: On average patients who were future classified as treatment resistant reported poorer performance across most cognitive domains at baseline. Univariate logistic regressions showed that antipsychotic treatment resistance cases had significantly poorer IQ/general cognitive functioning at FEP (OR = 0.70, p = .003). These findings remained significant after adjusting for additional variables in multivariable analyses (OR = 0.76, p = .049). Conclusions: Although replication in larger studies is required, it appears that deficits in IQ/general cognitive functioning at first episode are associated with future treatment resistance. Cognitive variables may be able to provide further insight into neurodevelopmental factors associated with treatment resistance or act as early predictors of treatment resistance, which could allow prompt identification of refractory illness and timely interventions.Funding: This work was supported by a Stratified Medicine Programme grant to J.H.M from the Medical Research Council (grant number MR/L011794/1 which funded the research and supported S.E.S., A.F.P., R.M.M., J.T.R.W. & J.H.M.) E.M’s PhD is funded by the MRC-doctoral training partnership studentship in Biomedical Sciences at King’s College London. J.H.M, E.K, R.M.M are part funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre at South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and King’s College London. A.P.K. is funded by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and King’s College London. O.A. is further funded by an NIHR Post-Doctoral Fellowship (PDF2018-11-ST2-020). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the MRC, the NIHR or the Department of Health. E.M.J. is supported by the UCL/UCLH Biomedical Research Centre. The AESOP (London, UK) cohort was funded by the UK Medical Research Council (Ref: G0500817). The Bologna (Italy) cohort was funded by the European Community’s Seventh Framework Program under grant agreement (agreement No. HEALTH-F2-2010–241909, Project EU-GEI). The GAP (London, UK) cohort was funded by the UK National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) Specialist Biomedical Research Centre for Mental Health, South London and Maudsley NHS Mental Health Foundation Trust (SLaM) and the Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology, and Neuroscience at King’s College London; Psychiatry Research Trust; Maudsley Charity Research Fund; and the European Community’s Seventh Framework Program grant (agreement No. HEALTH-F2-2009-241909, Project EU-GEI). The Oslo (Norway) cohort was funded by the Stiftelsen KG Jebsen, Research Council of Norway (#223273, under the Centers of Excellence funding scheme, and #300309, #283798) and the South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority (#2006233, #2006258, #2011085, #2014102, #2015088, #2017-112). The Paris (France) cohort was funded by European Community’s Seventh Framework Program grant (agreement No. HEALTHF2-2010–241909, Project EU-GEI). The Santander (Spain) cohort was funded by the following grants (to B.C.F): Instituto de Salud Carlos III, FIS 00/3095, PI020499, PI050427, PI060507, Plan Nacional de Drogas Research Grant 2005-Orden sco/3246/2004, and SENY Fundatio Research Grant CI 2005-0308007, Fundacion Marques de Valdecilla A/02/07 and API07/011. SAF2016-76046-R and SAF2013-46292-R (MINECO and FEDER). The West London (UK) cohort was funded The Wellcome Trust (Grant Numbers: 042025; 052247; 064607)

Charged kaon lifetime at KLOE

Preliminary result on the charged kaon lifetime, obtained by the KLOE experiment operating at DA$\Phi$NE, the Frascati $\phi$-factory, is presentedComment: 3 pages, 3 figures, to appear in the proceedings of 42nd Rencontres de Moriond on Electroweak Interactions and Unified Theories, La Thuile, Aosta Valley, Italy, 10-17 Mar 200