Estimates of the impacts of invasive alien plants on water flows in South Africa

The adverse impacts of alien plant invasions on water flows have been a prime motivation for South Africa’s Working for Water Programme. The approach used in this study builds on a previous national assessment in 1998 by incorporating factors that limit plant water-use, information from recent research and improved flow reduction models. The total reduction in flows is estimated to be 1 444 million m3·yr−1 or 2.9% of the naturalised mean annual runoff (MAR), less than half of the 3 300 million m3·yr−1 estimated in 1998. Two main factors account for this difference: (a) a decrease in the estimated unit-area flow reduction to 970 m3·ha−1·yr−1 compared with 1 900 m3·ha−1·yr−1 estimated in 1998, largely due to the new model being based on more representative reduction factors; and (b) the updated estimate of the condensed invaded area of 1.50 million ha (previously 1.76 million ha), although the taxa mapped for this assessment only accounted for 1.00 million of the 1.76 million ha reported in 1998. Reductions due to invasions in Lesotho are estimated to be about 161 million m3·yr−1 and those in Swaziland about 193 million m3·yr−1. The taxon with the greatest estimated impact was wattles (Acacia mearnsii, A. dealbata, A. decurrens) with 34.0% of the total reductions, followed by Pinus species (19.3%) and Eucalyptus species (15.8%). The revised estimate is considered on the low side largely because the extent and impacts of riparian invasions have been underestimated. If the current estimates that 4–6% of Acacia mearnsii, Eucalyptus, Populus and Salix invasions are riparian, are adjusted to a more representative 20%, 50%, 80% and 80%, respectively, the total reductions increase by nearly 70% to ~2 444 million m3·yr−1. Producing these estimates involved a number of assumptions and extrapolations, and further research is needed to provide more robust estimates of the impacts.Keywords: plant water-use, flow reduction, mean annual runoff, riparian invasions, Working for Water Programm

Compositional controls on oceanic plates : geophysical evidence from the MELT area

Author Posting. © The Authors, 2005. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature 437 (2005): 249-252, doi:10.1038/nature04014.Magnetotelluric (MT) and seismic data, collected during the MELT experiment at the Southern East Pacific Rise (SEPR) constrain the distribution of melt beneath this mid-ocean-ridge spreading center and also the evolution of the oceanic lithosphere during its early cooling history. In this paper, we focus on structure imaged at distances ~100 to 350 km east of the ridge crest, corresponding to seafloor ages of ~1.3 to 4.5 Ma, where the seismic and electrical conductivity structure is nearly constant, independent of age. Beginning at a depth of about 60 km, there is a large increase in electrical conductivity and a change from isotropic to transversely anisotropic electrical structure with higher conductivity in the direction of fast propagation for seismic waves. Because conductive cooling models predict structure that increases in depth with age, extending to about 30 km at 4.5 Ma, we infer that the structure of young oceanic plates is instead controlled by a decrease in water content above 60 km induced by the melting process beneath the spreading center.US participation in the MELT experiment and subsequent analysis was funded by NSF grants through the Marine Geology and Geophysics Program, Ocean Sciences Division

Natural Hazards in a Changing World: A Case for Ecosystem-Based Management

<div><p>Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1∶100 year flood event to a 1∶80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1∶100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events.</p></div

Wave run-up elevations for various storm-wave return intervals for different scenarios of beach slope and climate change.

<p>Simulations used here are for a typical sandy beach location in Eden (Tergniet, near Mossel Bay), which is prone to storm-wave damage. Return periods were based on the simulated wave run-up elevations for a south-south westerly swell, and spring high tide levels. The numbers prefixing the annotated description of each scenario provides a reference to <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0095942#pone-0095942-t001" target="_blank">Table 1</a>, which describes each scenario in more detail.</p

Flood return intervals for different scenarios of land cover and climate change.

<p>The numbers prefixing the annotated description of each scenario provides a reference to <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0095942#pone-0095942-t001" target="_blank">Table 1</a>, which describes each scenario in more detail. The changes in the values for each return interval illustrate the potential changes in the likelihood of extreme flow events under the different scenarios. For example, the return period of a flood with a daily flow of 150 mm (similar to the May 1981 flood in this area) would decrease from a baseline of more than 100 years to 70 years under future climate (scenario 5).</p

Flow duration curve for different scenarios of land cover and climate change.

<p>This shows the cumulative proportion of the months where a flow exceeded a given discharge for the different scenarios. The numbers prefixing the annotated description of each scenario provides a reference to <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0095942#pone-0095942-t001" target="_blank">Table 1</a>, which describes each scenario in more detail. Extreme low flows were defined as those with >90% exceedance, which were used in this study to represent severe drought conditions. A log-normal probability curve was used to allow the low and high flow ends of the plot to be more clearly displayed.</p

The location of the hazard model study areas within Eden.

<p>The inset showing the location of Eden in South Africa.</p

Globe-LFMC, a global plant water status database for vegetation ecophysiology and wildfire applications

Globe-LFMC is an extensive global database of live fuel moisture content (LFMC) measured from 1,383 sampling sites in 11 countries: Argentina, Australia, China, France, Italy, Senegal, Spain, South Africa, Tunisia, United Kingdom and the United States of America. The database contains 161,717 individual records based on in situ destructive samples used to measure LFMC, representing the amount of water in plant leaves per unit of dry matter. The primary goal of the database is to calibrate and validate remote sensing algorithms used to predict LFMC. However, this database is also relevant for the calibration and validation of dynamic global vegetation models, eco-physiological models of plant water stress as well as understanding the physiological drivers of spatiotemporal variation in LFMC at local, regional and global scales. Globe-LFMC should be useful for studying LFMC trends in response to environmental change and LFMC influence on wildfire occurrence, wildfire behavior, and overall vegetation health