Evolution of Subjective Hurricane Risk Perceptions: A Bayesian Approach

This paper studies how individuals update subjective risk perceptions in response to hurricane track forecast information, using a unique data set from an event market, the Hurricane Futures Market (HFM). We derive a theoretical Bayesian framework which predicts how traders update their perceptions of the probability of a hurricane making landfall in a certain range of coastline. Our results suggest that traders behave in a way consistent with Bayesian updating but this behavior is based on the perceived quality of the information received.risk perceptions, learning, Bayesian learning, event markets, prediction markets, favorite-longshot bias, hurricanes

Influence of coral and algal exudates on microbially mediated reef metabolism.

Benthic primary producers in tropical reef ecosystems can alter biogeochemical cycling and microbial processes in the surrounding seawater. In order to quantify these influences, we measured rates of photosynthesis, respiration, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exudate release by the dominant benthic primary producers (calcifying and non-calcifying macroalgae, turf-algae and corals) on reefs of Mo'orea French Polynesia. Subsequently, we examined planktonic and benthic microbial community response to these dissolved exudates by measuring bacterial growth rates and oxygen and DOC fluxes in dark and daylight incubation experiments. All benthic primary producers exuded significant quantities of DOC (roughly 10% of their daily fixed carbon) into the surrounding water over a diurnal cycle. The microbial community responses were dependent upon the source of the exudates and whether the inoculum of microbes included planktonic or planktonic plus benthic communities. The planktonic and benthic microbial communities in the unamended control treatments exhibited opposing influences on DO concentration where respiration dominated in treatments comprised solely of plankton and autotrophy dominated in treatments with benthic plus plankon microbial communities. Coral exudates (and associated inorganic nutrients) caused a shift towards a net autotrophic microbial metabolism by increasing the net production of oxygen by the benthic and decreasing the net consumption of oxygen by the planktonic microbial community. In contrast, the addition of algal exudates decreased the net primary production by the benthic communities and increased the net consumption of oxygen by the planktonic microbial community thereby resulting in a shift towards net heterotrophic community metabolism. When scaled up to the reef habitat, exudate-induced effects on microbial respiration did not outweigh the high oxygen production rates of benthic algae, such that reef areas dominated with benthic primary producers were always estimated to be net autotrophic. However, estimates of microbial consumption of DOC at the reef scale surpassed the DOC exudation rates suggesting net consumption of DOC at the reef-scale. In situ mesocosm experiments using custom-made benthic chambers placed over different types of benthic communities exhibited identical trends to those found in incubation experiments. Here we provide the first comprehensive dataset examining direct primary producer-induced, and indirect microbially mediated alterations of elemental cycling in both benthic and planktonic reef environments over diurnal cycles. Our results highlight the variability of the influence of different benthic primary producers on microbial metabolism in reef ecosystems and the potential implications for energy transfer to higher trophic levels during shifts from coral to algal dominance on reefs

Quantitative scattering of melanin solutions

The optical scattering coefficient of a dilute, well solubilised eumelanin solution has been accurately measured as a function of incident wavelength, and found to contribute less than 6% of the total optical attenuation between 210 and 325nm. At longer wavelengths (325nm to 800nm) the scattering was less than the minimum sensitivity of our instrument. This indicates that UV and visible optical density spectra can be interpreted as true absorption with a high degree of confidence. The scattering coefficient vs wavelength was found to be consistent with Rayleigh Theory for a particle radius of 38+-1nm.Comment: 23 pages, 5 figure

Effects of Coral Reef Benthic Primary Producers on Dissolved Organic Carbon and Microbial Activity

Benthic primary producers in marine ecosystems may significantly alter biogeochemical cycling and microbial processes in their surrounding environment. To examine these interactions, we studied dissolved organic matter release by dominant benthic taxa and subsequent microbial remineralization in the lagoonal reefs of Moorea, French Polynesia. Rates of photosynthesis, respiration, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) release were assessed for several common benthic reef organisms from the backreef habitat. We assessed microbial community response to dissolved exudates of each benthic producer by measuring bacterioplankton growth, respiration, and DOC drawdown in two-day dark dilution culture incubations. Experiments were conducted for six benthic producers: three species of macroalgae (each representing a different algal phylum: Turbinaria ornata – Ochrophyta; Amansia rhodantha – Rhodophyta; Halimeda opuntia – Chlorophyta), a mixed assemblage of turf algae, a species of crustose coralline algae (Hydrolithon reinboldii) and a dominant hermatypic coral (Porites lobata). Our results show that all five types of algae, but not the coral, exuded significant amounts of labile DOC into their surrounding environment. In general, primary producers with the highest rates of photosynthesis released the most DOC and yielded the greatest bacterioplankton growth; turf algae produced nearly twice as much DOC per unit surface area than the other benthic producers (14.0±2.8 µmol h−1 dm−2), stimulating rapid bacterioplankton growth (0.044±0.002 log10 cells h−1) and concomitant oxygen drawdown (0.16±0.05 µmol L−1 h−1 dm−2). Our results demonstrate that benthic reef algae can release a significant fraction of their photosynthetically-fixed carbon as DOC, these release rates vary by species, and this DOC is available to and consumed by reef associated microbes. These data provide compelling evidence that benthic primary producers differentially influence reef microbial dynamics and biogeochemical parameters (i.e., DOC and oxygen availability, bacterial abundance and metabolism) in coral reef communities

Tranz <---> Tech [1999] : Toronto International Video Art Biennial

This publication for the [1999] International Video Art Biennial in Toronto includes introductory texts for specific video screenings, usually written by the curators. There are also descriptions of selected installations and exhibitions connected with the biennial. Includes a schedule, as well as a listing of the curators participating in the event

Public Benefits of Undeveloped Lands on Urban Outskirts: Non-Market Valuation Studies and their Role in Land Use Plans

Over the past three decades, the economics profession has developed methods for estimating the public benefits of green spaces, providing an opportunity to incorporate such information into land-use planning. While federal regulations routinely require such estimates for major regulations, the extent to which they are used in local land use plans is not clear. This paper reviews the literature on public values for lands on urban outskirts, not just to survey their methods or empirical findings, but to evaluate the role they have played--or have the potential to play-- in actual land use plans. Based on interviews with authors and representatives of funding agencies and local land trusts, it appears that academic work has had a mixed reception in the policy world. Reasons for this include a lack of interest in making academic work accessible to policy makers, emphasizing revealed preference methods which are inconsistent with policy priorities related to nonuse values, and emphasis on benefit-cost analyses. Nevertheless, there are examples of success stories that illustrate how such information can play a vital role in the design of conservation policies. Working Paper 07-2

A-dependence of nuclear transparency in quasielastic A(e,e'p) at high Q^2

The A-dependence of the quasielastic A(e,e'p) reaction has been studied at SLAC with H-2, C, Fe, and Au nuclei at momentum transfers Q^2 = 1, 3, 5, and 6.8 (GeV/c)^2. We extract the nuclear transparency T(A,Q^2), a measure of the average probability that the struck proton escapes from the nucleus A without interaction. Several calculations predict a significant increase in T with momentum transfer, a phenomenon known as Color Transparency. No significant rise within errors is seen for any of the nuclei studied.Comment: 5 pages incl. 2 figures, Caltech preprint OAP-73

Pinning-induced transition to disordered vortex phase in layered superconductors

Destruction of the vortex lattice by random point pinning is considered as a mechanism of the ``second peak'' transition observed experimentally in weakly coupled layered high temperature superconductors. The transition field separating the topologically ordered quasilattice from the amorphous vortex configuration is strongly influenced by the layered structure and by the nonlocal nature of the vortex tilt energy due to the magnetic interlayer coupling. We found three different regimes of transition depending on the relative strength of the Josephson and magnetic couplings. The regimes can be distinguished by the dependence of the transition fieldComment: 8 pages, 3 Postscript figures. Accepted to Phys. Rev.B. (regular article