A Preliminiary Investigation to Determine the Economic Implications of the 404 Permit for Constructing Agriculturally Related Reservoirs in Arkansas

A descriptive inquiry of the economic consequences of federal regulations which restrict the construction of agriculturally related reservoirs in Arkansas\u27s wetlands is presented in this report. The applicable economic principles are identifyed and applied to the situation without the quantifiable information necessary to evaluate the alternatives. The difficulty of collecting the required quantifiable information necessitates the formulation of a different technique to unravel the dilemma. An alternative method for resolving the wetlands allocation question is presented for a public sector decision maker. This unconventional technique suggests that it may be desirable to estimate and compare the costs associated with the possible errors of a wetlands land use regulation in terms of both their consequences and likelihood

Analyzing large-scale conservation interventions with Bayesian hierarchical models: a case study of supplementing threatened Pacific salmon.

Myriad human activities increasingly threaten the existence of many species. A variety of conservation interventions such as habitat restoration, protected areas, and captive breeding have been used to prevent extinctions. Evaluating the effectiveness of these interventions requires appropriate statistical methods, given the quantity and quality of available data. Historically, analysis of variance has been used with some form of predetermined before-after control-impact design to estimate the effects of large-scale experiments or conservation interventions. However, ad hoc retrospective study designs or the presence of random effects at multiple scales may preclude the use of these tools. We evaluated the effects of a large-scale supplementation program on the density of adult Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from the Snake River basin in the northwestern United States currently listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We analyzed 43 years of data from 22 populations, accounting for random effects across time and space using a form of Bayesian hierarchical time-series model common in analyses of financial markets. We found that varying degrees of supplementation over a period of 25 years increased the density of natural-origin adults, on average, by 0-8% relative to nonsupplementation years. Thirty-nine of the 43 year effects were at least two times larger in magnitude than the mean supplementation effect, suggesting common environmental variables play a more important role in driving interannual variability in adult density. Additional residual variation in density varied considerably across the region, but there was no systematic difference between supplemented and reference populations. Our results demonstrate the power of hierarchical Bayesian models to detect the diffuse effects of management interventions and to quantitatively describe the variability of intervention success. Nevertheless, our study could not address whether ecological factors (e.g., competition) were more important than genetic considerations (e.g., inbreeding depression) in determining the response to supplementation

Characterizing Multi-planet Systems with Classical Secular Theory

Classical secular theory can be a powerful tool to describe the qualitative character of multi-planet systems and offer insight into their histories. The eigenmodes of the secular behavior, rather than current orbital elements, can help identify tidal effects, early planet-planet scattering, and dynamical coupling among the planets, for systems in which mean-motion resonances do not play a role. Although tidal damping can result in aligned major axes after all but one eigenmode have damped away, such alignment may simply be fortuitous. An example of this is 55 Cancri (orbital solution of Fischer et al., 2008) where multiple eigenmodes remain undamped. Various solutions for 55 Cancri are compared, showing differing dynamical groupings, with implications for the coupling of eccentricities and for the partitioning of damping among the planets. Solutions for orbits that include expectations of past tidal evolution with observational data, must take into account which eigenmodes should be damped, rather than expecting particular eccentricities to be near zero. Classical secular theory is only accurate for low eccentricity values, but comparison with other results suggests that it can yield useful qualitative descriptions of behavior even for moderately large eccentricity values, and may have advantages for revealing underlying physical processes and, as large numbers of new systems are discovered, for triage to identify where more comprehensive dynamical studies should have priority.Comment: Published in Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy, 25 pages, 10 figure

Origin and Dynamics of the Mutually Inclined Orbits of Upsilon Andromedae c and d

We evaluate the orbital evolution and several plausible origins scenarios for the mutually inclined orbits of Upsilon Andromedae c and d. These two planets have orbital elements that oscillate with large amplitudes and lie close to the stability boundary. This configuration, and in particular the observed mutual inclination, demands an explanation. The planetary system may be influenced by a nearby low-mass star, Upsilon And B, which could perturb the planetary orbits, but we find it cannot modify two coplanar orbits into the observed mutual inclination of ~30 deg. However, it could incite ejections or collisions between planetary companions that subsequently raise the mutual inclination to >30 deg. Our simulated systems with large mutual inclinations tend to be further from the stability boundary than Upsilon And, but we are able to produce similar systems. We conclude that scattering is a plausible mechanism to explain the observed orbits of Upsilon And c and d, but we cannot determine whether the scattering was caused by instabilities among the planets themselves or by perturbations from Upsilon And B. We also develop a procedure to quantitatively compare numerous properties of the observed system to our numerical models. Although we only implement this procedure to Upsilon And, it may be applied to any exoplanetary system.Comment: 19 pages, 5 figures, accepted to Astrophysical Journa

CBR Anisotropy from Primordial Gravitational Waves in Two-Component Inflationary Cosmology

We examine stochastic temperature fluctuations of the cosmic background radiation (CBR) arising via the Sachs-Wolfe effect from gravitational wave perturbations produced in the early universe. We consider spatially flat, perturbed FRW models that begin with an inflationary phase, followed by a mixed phase containing both radiation and dust. The scale factor during the mixed phase takes the form $a(\eta)=c_1\eta^2+c_2\eta+c_3$, where $c_i$ are constants. During the mixed phase the universe smoothly transforms from being radiation to dust dominated. We find analytic expressions for the graviton mode function during the mixed phase in terms of spheroidal wave functions. This mode function is used to find an analytic expression for the multipole moments $\langle a_l^2\rangle$ of the two-point angular correlation function $C(\gamma)$ for the CBR anisotropy. The analytic expression for the multipole moments is written in terms of two integrals, which are evaluated numerically. The results are compared to multipoles calculated for models that are {\it completely} dust dominated at last-scattering. We find that the multipoles $\langle a_l^2\rangle$ of the CBR temperature perturbations for $l>10$ are significantly larger for a universe that contains both radiation and dust at last-scattering. We compare our results with recent, similar numerical work and find good agreement. The spheroidal wave functions may have applications to other problems of cosmological interest.Comment: 28 pgs + 6 postscript figures, RevTe

Entropy production from stochastic dynamics in discrete full phase space

The stochastic entropy generated during the evolution of a system interacting with an environment may be separated into three components, but only two of these have a non-negative mean. The third component of entropy production is associated with the relaxation of the system probability distribution towards a stationary state and with nonequilibrium constraints within the dynamics that break detailed balance. It exists when at least some of the coordinates of the system phase space change sign under time reversal, and when the stationary state is asymmetric in these coordinates. We illustrate the various components of entropy production, both in detail for particular trajectories and in the mean, using simple systems defined on a discrete phase space of spatial and velocity coordinates. These models capture features of the drift and diffusion of a particle in a physical system, including the processes of injection and removal and the effect of a temperature gradient. The examples demonstrate how entropy production in stochastic thermodynamics depends on the detail that is included in a model of the dynamics of a process. Entropy production from such a perspective is a measure of the failure of such models to meet Loschmidt's expectation of dynamic reversibility

England’s dissatisfactions and the conservative dilemma

In the immediate aftermath of the Scottish independence referendum, Prime Minister David Cameron raised the ‘English Question’ by advocating English Votes for English Laws in the House of Commons. This article explains why. It uses findings from the 2014 Future of England Survey of attitudes to constitutional issues in England. It reveals a group of interlinked concerns in England: about the advantages Scotland is perceived to have in the UK Union, about the absence of institutional recognition of England in the UK political system, and about the European Union and immigration. It shows that these concerns are distinctively English, held in a broadly uniform way across England and held most strongly by people in England who identify themselves as English, and not British. These concerns, and their linkage to and by English identity, differentiate the supporters of different political parties. They are held least strongly by Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters, and more strongly by Conservative and, especially, UKIP supporters. Cameron’s move on the English Question – and subsequent profiling of English issues in the 2015 UK general election – recognised a territorially distinctive electoral battleground in England on which the Conservatives are now competing with UKIP to articulate a new English nationalism, perhaps at the expense of the Conservative Party’s unionist heritage

Increased typhoon activity in the Pacific deep tropics driven by Little Ice Age circulation changes

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2020. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Research for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bramante, J. F., Ford, M. R., Kench, P. S., Ashton, A. D., Toomey, M. R., Sullivan, R. M., Karnauskas, K. B., Ummenhofer, C. C., & Donnelly, J. P. (2020). Increased typhoon activity in the Pacific deep tropics driven by Little Ice Age circulation changes. Nature Geoscience, 13, 806–811. doi:10.1038/s41561-020-00656-2.The instrumental record reveals that tropical cyclone activity is sensitive to oceanic and atmospheric variability on inter-annual and decadal scales. However, our understanding of the influence of climate on tropical cyclone behaviour is restricted by the short historical record and the sparseness of prehistorical reconstructions, particularly in the western North Pacific, where coastal communities suffer loss of life and livelihood from typhoons annually. Here, to explore past regional typhoon dynamics, we reconstruct three millennia of deep tropical North Pacific cyclogenesis. Combined with existing records, our reconstruction demonstrates that low-baseline typhoon activity prior to 1350 ce was followed by an interval of frequent storms during the Little Ice Age. This pattern, concurrent with hydroclimate proxy variability, suggests a centennial-scale link between Pacific hydroclimate and tropical cyclone climatology. An ensemble of global climate models demonstrates a migration of the Pacific Walker circulation and variability in two Pacific climate modes during the Little Ice Age, which probably contributed to enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the tropical western North Pacific. In the next century, projected changes to the Pacific Walker circulation and expansion of the tropics will invert these Little Ice Age hydroclimate trends, potentially reducing typhoon activity in the deep tropical Pacific.This work was supported by the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP RC-2336). C.C.U. acknowledges support from NSF under AGS-1602455. We thank student intern D. Carter for extensive labwork on core LTD3. We acknowledge the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. CMIP5 model output was provided by the WHOI CMIP5 Community Storage Server via their website: http://cmip5.whoi.edu/. Any use of trade, firm or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government.2021-05-1

M87: A Misaligned BL LAC?

The nuclear region of M87 was observed with the Faint Object Spectrograph (FOS) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) at 6 epochs, spanning 18 months, after the HST image quality was improved with the deployment of the corrective optics (COSTAR) in December 1993. From the FOS target acquisition data, we have established that the flux from the optical nucleus of M87 varies by a factor ~2 on time scales of ~2.5 months and by as much as 25% over 3 weeks, and remains unchanged (<= 2.5%) on time scales of ~1 day. The changes occur in an unresolved central region <= 5 pc in diameter, with the physical size of the emitting region limited by the observed time scales to a few hundred gravitational radii. The featureless continuum spectrum becomes bluer as it brightens while emission lines remain unchanged. This variability combined with the observations of the continuum spectral shape, strong relativistic boosting and the detection of significant superluminal motions in the jet, strongly suggest that M87 belongs to the class of BL Lac objects but is viewed at an angle too large to reveal the classical BL Lac properties.Comment: 12 pages, 3 Postscript figure