The Thermal Electrical Conductivity Probe (TECP) for Phoenix

The Thermal and Electrical Conductivity Probe (TECP) is a component of the Microscopy, Electrochemistry, and Conductivity Analyzer (MECA) payload on the Phoenix Lander. TECP will measure the temperature, thermal conductivity and volumetric heat capacity of the regolith. It will also detect and quantify the population of mobile H2O molecules in the regolith, if any, throughout the polar summer, by measuring the electrical conductivity of the regolith, as well as the dielectric permittivity. In the vapor phase, TECP is capable of measuring the atmospheric H2O vapor abundance, as well as augment the wind velocity measurements from the meteorology instrumentation. TECP is mounted near the end of the 2.3 m Robotic Arm, and can be placed either in the regolith material or held aloft in the atmosphere. This paper describes the development and calibration of the TECP. In addition, substantial characterization of the instrument has been conducted to identify behavioral characteristics that might affect landed surface operations. The greatest potential issue identified in characterization tests is the extraordinary sensitivity of the TECP to placement. Small gaps alter the contact between the TECP and regolith, complicating data interpretation. Testing with the Phoenix Robotic Arm identified mitigation techniques that will be implemented during flight. A flight model of the instrument was also field tested in the Antarctic Dry Valleys during the 2007-2008 International Polar year.

Superhumps in Cataclysmic Binaries. XXIII. V442 Ophiuchi and RX J1643.7+3402

We report the results of long observing campaigns on two novalike variables: V442 Ophiuchi and RX J1643.7+3402. These stars have high-excitation spectra, complex line profiles signifying mass loss at particular orbital phases, and similar orbital periods (respectively 0.12433 and 0.12056 d). They are well-credentialed members of the SW Sex class of cataclysmic variables. Their light curves are also quite complex. V442 Oph shows periodic signals with periods of 0.12090(8) and 4.37(15) days, and RX J1643.7+3402 shows similar signals at 0.11696(8) d and 4.05(12) d. We interpret these short and long periods respectively as a "negative superhump" and the wobble period of the accretion disk. The superhump could then possibly arise from the heating of the secondary (and structures fixed in the orbital frame) by inner-disk radiation, which reaches the secondary relatively unimpeded since the disk is not coplanar. At higher frequencies, both stars show another type of variability: quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) with a period near 1000 seconds. Underlying these strong signals of low stability may be weak signals of higher stability. Similar QPOs, and negative superhumps, are quite common features in SW Sex stars. Both can in principle be explained by ascribing strong magnetism to the white dwarf member of the binary; and we suggest that SW Sex stars are borderline AM Herculis binaries, usually drowned by a high accretion rate. This would provide an ancestor channel for AM Hers, whose origin is still mysterious.Comment: PDF, 41 pages, 4 tables, 16 figures; accepted, in press, to appear December 2002, PASP; more info at http://cba.phys.columbia.edu

Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa

Background Healthcare resource constraints in low and middle-income countries necessitate selection of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19. Methods We developed a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to evaluate clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Interventions assessed were Healthcare Testing (HT), where diagnostic testing is performed only for those presenting to healthcare centres; Contact Tracing (CT) in households of cases; Isolation Centres (IC), for cases not requiring hospitalisation; community health worker-led Mass Symptom Screening and diagnostic testing for symptomatic individuals (MS); and Quarantine Centres (QC), for contacts who test negative. Given uncertainties about epidemic dynamics in South Africa, we evaluated two main epidemic scenarios over 360 days, with effective reproduction numbers (R e ) of 1.5 and 1.2. We compared HT, HT+CT, HT+CT+IC, HT+CT+IC+MS, HT+CT+IC+QC, and HT+CT+IC+MS+QC, considering strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) <US$1,290/year-of-life saved (YLS) to be cost-effective. Findings With R e 1.5, HT resulted in the most COVID-19 deaths and lowest costs over 360 days. Compared with HT, HT+CT+IC+MS reduced mortality by 76$350/YLS). HT+CT+IC+MS+QC provided the greatest reduction in mortality, but increased costs by 95% compared with HT+CT+IC+MS and was not cost-effective (ICER $8,000/YLS). With R e 1.2, HT+CT+IC+MS was the least costly strategy, and HT+CT+IC+MS+QC was not cost-effective (ICER$294,320/YLS). Interpretation In South Africa, a strategy of household contact tracing, isolation, and mass symptom screening would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and be cost-effective. Adding quarantine centres for COVID-19 contacts is not cost-effective

Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa: a microsimulation modelling study

Background: Health-care resource constraints in low-income and middle-income countries necessitate the identification of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19. We aimed to develop a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to assess clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. Methods: We compared different combinations of five public health interventions: health-care testing alone, where diagnostic testing is done only for individuals presenting to health-care centres; contact tracing in households of cases; isolation centres, for cases not requiring hospital admission; mass symptom screening and molecular testing for symptomatic individuals by community health-care workers; and quarantine centres, for household contacts who test negative. We calibrated infection transmission rates to match effective reproduction number (Re) estimates reported in South Africa. We assessed two main epidemic scenarios for a period of 360 days, with an Re of 1·5 and 1·2. Strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of less than US$3250 per year of life saved were considered cost-effective. We also did sensitivity analyses by varying key parameters (Re values, molecular testing sensitivity, and efficacies and costs of interventions) to determine the effect on clinical and cost projections. Findings: When Re was 1·5, health-care testing alone resulted in the highest number of COVID-19 deaths during the 360-day period. Compared with health-care testing alone, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres reduced mortality by 94$340 per year of life saved). In settings where quarantine centres were not feasible, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and mass symptom screening was cost-effective compared with health-care testing alone (ICER $590 per year of life saved). When Re was 1·2, health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and use of quarantine centres was the least costly strategy, and no other strategies were cost-effective. In sensitivity analyses, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres was generally cost-effective, with the exception of scenarios in which Re was 2·6 and when efficacies of isolation centres and quarantine centres for transmission reduction were reduced. Interpretation: In South Africa, strategies involving household contact tracing, isolation, mass symptom screening, and quarantining household contacts who test negative would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and would be cost-effective. The optimal combination of interventions depends on epidemic growth characteristics and practical implementation considerations

Superhumps in Cataclysmic Binaries. XXV. q_crit, epsilon(q), and Mass-Radius

We report on successes and failures in searching for positive superhumps in cataclysmic variables, and show the superhumping fraction as a function of orbital period. Basically, all short-period systems do, all long-period systems don't, and a 50% success rate is found at P_orb=3.1+-0.2 hr. We can use this to measure the critical mass ratio for the creation of superhumps. With a mass-radius relation appropriate for cataclysmic variables, and an assumed mean white-dwarf mass of 0.75 M_sol, we find a mass ratio q_crit=0.35+-0.02. We also report superhump studies of several stars of independently known mass ratio: OU Virginis, XZ Eridani, UU Aquarii, and KV UMa (= XTE J1118+480). The latter two are of special interest, because they represent the most extreme mass ratios for which accurate superhump measurements have been made. We use these to improve the epsilon(q) calibration, by which we can infer the elusive q from the easy-to-measure epsilon (the fractional period excess of P_superhump over P_orb). This relation allows mass and radius estimates for the secondary star in any CV showing superhumps. The consequent mass-radius law shows an apparent discontinuity in radius near 0.2 M_sol, as predicted by the disrupted magnetic braking model for the 2.1-2.7 hour period gap. This is effectively the "empirical main sequence" for CV secondaries.Comment: PDF, 45 pages, 9 tables, 12 figures; accepted, in press, to appear November 2005, PASP; more info at http://cba.phys.columbia.edu

Complementary and alternative medicines (CAMs) and adherence to mental health medications

BACKGROUND: Medication regimes are often poorly adhered to, and the negative consequences of this are well recognised. The dynamics underlying non-adherence are less understood. This paper examines adherence to prescription medications for mental health difficulties in relation to the use of complementary and alternative medicines (CAMs). This was based on suggestions that within medical pluralism, CAMs may reduce adherence to conventional prescription medications for reasons such as their further complicating the medication regime or their being perceived as a substitute with less adverse side effects than conventional prescription medications. METHODS: Data used was from the National Comorbidity Study Replication (NCS-R), specifically those 1396 individuals who reported taking a prescription drug for mental health difficulties within the last 12 months and under the supervision of a health professional. This subsample was selected due to their being the only subgroup questioned regarding their medication adherence. Other demographic and health factors were also considered. RESULTS: The use of complementary medicines alongside the conventional medicines bore no significant relation to odds of reporting adherence versus non adherence. Ethnicity and medication count were significant predictors of adherence versus non-adherence. CONCLUSIONS: The above findings are discussed from the point of both promoting the use of CAMs and increasing health professionals’ understanding of the dynamics underlying adherence, or the lack thereof, and subsequently informing interventions to reduce the problems associated with this issue in terms of increased health care needs and reduced quality of life

Elected Mayors: Leading Locally?

The directly elected executive mayor was introduced to England a decade ago. Drawing inspiration from European and American experience, the elected mayor appealed to both New Labour and Conservative commentators in offering a solution to perceived problems of local leadership. There was a shared view that governance of local areas was failing and that elected mayors were the answer. The first local referendums were held in 2001. Most have continued to reject the idea of the elected mayor. During 2012, the coalition government initiated 10 further mayoral referendums in England's largest cities but only one, Bristol, opted for an elected mayor. Overall, there is no evidence of widespread public support, yet the prospect of more mayors - with enhanced powers - remains firmly on the policy agenda. Drawing from a decade of research, this paper considers reasons for the persistence of the mayoral experiment, the importance of local factors in the few areas where mayors hold office and the link to current policy debates. Using the authors' analytical leadership grid, this paper links the governmental, governance and allegiance roles of mayors to the problematic nature of local leadership. It then draws tentative conclusions about the strange case of the elected mayor in England

Genetic risk and a primary role for cell-mediated immune mechanisms in multiple sclerosis.

Multiple sclerosis is a common disease of the central nervous system in which the interplay between inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes typically results in intermittent neurological disturbance followed by progressive accumulation of disability. Epidemiological studies have shown that genetic factors are primarily responsible for the substantially increased frequency of the disease seen in the relatives of affected individuals, and systematic attempts to identify linkage in multiplex families have confirmed that variation within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) exerts the greatest individual effect on risk. Modestly powered genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have enabled more than 20 additional risk loci to be identified and have shown that multiple variants exerting modest individual effects have a key role in disease susceptibility. Most of the genetic architecture underlying susceptibility to the disease remains to be defined and is anticipated to require the analysis of sample sizes that are beyond the numbers currently available to individual research groups. In a collaborative GWAS involving 9,772 cases of European descent collected by 23 research groups working in 15 different countries, we have replicated almost all of the previously suggested associations and identified at least a further 29 novel susceptibility loci. Within the MHC we have refined the identity of the HLA-DRB1 risk alleles and confirmed that variation in the HLA-A gene underlies the independent protective effect attributable to the class I region. Immunologically relevant genes are significantly overrepresented among those mapping close to the identified loci and particularly implicate T-helper-cell differentiation in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis