Large-scale surface responses during European dry spells diagnosed from land surface temperature

Soil moisture plays a fundamental role in regulating the summertime surface energy balance across Europe. Understanding the spatial and temporal behaviour in soil moisture and its control on evapotranspiration (ET) is critically important, and influences heat wave events. Global climate models (GCMs) exhibit a broad range of land responses to soil moisture in regions which lie between wet and dry soil regimes. In situ observations of soil moisture and evaporation are limited in space, and given the spatial heterogeneity of the landscape, are unrepresentative of the GCM grid box scale. On the other hand, satellite-borne observations of land surface temperature (LST) can provide important information at the larger scale. As a key component of the surface energy balance, LST is used to provide an indirect measure of surface drying across the landscape. In order to isolate soil moisture constraints on evaporation, time series of clear sky LST are analysed during dry spells lasting at least 10 days from March to October. Averaged over thousands of dry spell events across Europe, and accounting for atmospheric temperature variations, regional surface warming of between 0.5 and 0.8 K is observed over the first 10 days of a dry spell. Land surface temperatures are found to be sensitive to antecedent rainfall; stronger dry spell warming rates are observed following relatively wet months, indicative of soil moisture memory effects on the monthly time scale. Furthermore, clear differences in surface warming rate are found between cropland and forest, consistent with contrasting hydrological and aerodynamic properties

An evaluation of modeled evaporation regimes in Europe using observed dry spell land surface temperature

Soil moisture availability exerts control over the land surface energy partition in parts of Europe. However, determining the strength and variability of this control is impeded by the lack of reliable evaporation observations at the continental scale. This makes it difficult to refine the broad range of soil moisture–evaporation behaviours across global climate models (GCMs). Previous studies show that satellite observations of land surface temperature (LST) during rain-free dry spells can be used to diagnose evaporation regimes at the GCM grid box scale. This Relative Warming Rate (RWR) diagnostic quantifies the increase in dry spell LST relative to air temperature, and is used here to evaluate a land surface model (JULES) both offline and coupled to a GCM (HadGEM3-A). It is shown that RWR can be calculated using outputs from an atmospheric GCM provided the satellite clear-sky sampling bias is incorporated. Both offline JULES and HadGEM3-A reproduce the observed seasonal and regional RWR variations, but with weak springtime RWRs in central Europe. This coincides with sustained bare soil evaporation (Ebs) during dry spells, reflecting previous site-level JULES studies in Europe. To assess whether RWR can discriminate between surface descriptions, the bare soil surface conductance and the vegetation root profile are revised to limit Ebs. This increases RWR by increasing the occurrence of soil moisture limited dry spells, yielding more realistic springtime RWRs as a function of antecedent precipitation but poorer relationships in summer. This study demonstrates the potential for using satellite LST to assess evaporation regimes in climate models

Contrasting contributions of surface hydrological pathways in convection permitting and parameterised climate simulations over Africa and their feedbacks on the atmosphere

The partitioning of rainfall at the land surface into interception, infiltration and surface runoff plays an important role in the water cycle as it controls the time scale at which water returns to the atmosphere. Rainfall intensity is of crucial importance to this partition. High resolution convection permitting models significantly improve simulated sub-daily rainfall intensity distributions, in particular those associated with convective rainfall in the tropics. Here we compare the land surface hydrological response in a pair of 10-year simulations over an African domain performed using the Met Office Unified Model: a typical configuration using parameterised convection operating at 25 km and the second a high resolution convection permitting simulation at 4.5 km with the parametrized convection switched off. Overall pan-African interception in the convection permitting scheme is 70% lower, whilst surface runoff is 43% higher than the parameterized convection model. These changes are driven by less frequent, but more intense rainfall with a 25% increase in rainfall above 20 mm h−1 in the 4.5 km model. The parameterised scheme has a ~ 50% canopy water contribution to evaporative fraction which is negligible in the convection permitting scheme. Conversely, the convection permitting scheme has higher throughfall and infiltration leading to higher soil moisture in the weeks following rain resulting in a 30–50% decrease in the daytime sensible heat flux. We examine how important the sub-grid rainfall parameterisation in the model is for the differences between the two configurations. We show how, switching a convective parameterisation off can substantially impact land surface behaviour

Evaluating the performance of hydrological models via cross-spectral analysis: case study of the Thames Basin, United Kingdom

Nine distributed hydrological models, forced with common meteorological inputs, simulated naturalised daily discharge from the Thames Basin for 1963-2001. While model-dependent evaporative losses are critical for modelling mean discharge, multiple physical processes at many time scales influence the variability and timing of discharge. Here we advocate the use of cross-spectral analysis to measure how the average amplitude, and independently the average phase, of modelled discharge differ from observed discharge at daily to decadal time scales. Simulation of the spectral properties of the model discharge via numerical manipulation of precipitation confirms that modelled transformation involves runoff generation and routing that amplify the annual cycle, while subsurface storage and routing of runoff between grid boxes introduces most autocorrelation and delays. Too much or too little modelled evaporation affects discharge variability as do the capacity and time constants of modelled stores. Additionally the performance of specific models would improve if four issues were tackled: a) non-sinusoidal annual variations in model discharge (prolonged low baseflow and shortened high baseflow, 3 models), b) excessive attenuation of high frequency variability (3 models), c) excessive short-term variability in winter half years but too little variability in summer half years (2 models) and d) introduction of phase delays at the annual scale only during runoff generation (3 models) or only during routing (1 model). Cross-spectral analysis reveals how re-runs of one model using alternative methods of runoff generation - designed to improve performance at the weekly to monthly time scales - degraded performance at the annual scale. The cross-spectral approach facilitates hydrological model diagnoses and development

Global observational diagnosis of soil moisture control on the land surface energy balance

An understanding of where and how strongly the surface energy budget is constrained by soil moisture is hindered by a lack of large-scale observations, and this contributes to uncertainty in climate models. Here we present a new approach combining satellite observations of land surface temperature and rainfall.We derive a Relative Warming Rate (RWR) diagnostic, which is a measure of how rapidly the land warms relative to the overlying atmosphere during 10 day dry spells. In our dry spell composites, 73% of the land surface between 60°S and 60°N warms faster than the atmosphere, indicating water-stressed conditions, and increases in sensible heat. Higher RWRs are found for shorter vegetation and bare soil than for tall, deep-rooted vegetation, due to differences in aerodynamic and hydrological properties. We show how the variation of RWR with antecedent rainfall helps to identify different evaporative regimes in the major nonpolar climate zones

Assessment of the representation of West African storm lifecycles in convection‐permitting simulations

Convection‐permitting models perform better at representing the diurnal cycle and the intermittency of convective rainfall over land than parameterized‐convection models. However, most of the previous model assessments have been from an Eulerian point of view, while key impacts of the rainfall depend on a storm‐relative perspective of the system lifecycle. Here a storm‐tracking algorithm is used to generate storm‐centered Lagrangian lifecycle statistics of precipitation over West Africa from regional climate model simulations and observations. Two versions of the Met Office Unified Model with and without convection parameterization at 4, 12, and 25 km resolution were analyzed. In both of the parameterized‐convection simulations, storm lifetimes are too short compared to observations, and storms have no preferred propagation direction; the diurnal cycle of initiations and dissipations and the spatial distribution of storms are also inaccurate. The storms in the convection‐permitting simulations have more realistic diurnal cycles and lifetimes, but are not as large as the largest observed storms. The convection‐permitting model storms propagate in the correct direction, although not as fast as observed storms, and they have a much improved spatial distribution. The rainfall rate of convection‐permitting storms is likely too intense compared to observations. The improved representation of the statistics of organized convective lifecycles shows that convection‐permitting models provide better simulation of a number of aspects of high‐impact weather which are critical to climate impacts in this important geographic region, providing the high rainfall rates can be taken into account

A pan-African convection-permitting regional climate simulation with the Met Office Unified Model: CP4-Africa

A convection-permitting multi-year regional climate simulation using the Met Office Unified Model has been run for the first time on an Africa-wide domain. The model has been run as part of the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) IMPALA (Improving Model Processes for African cLimAte) project and its configuration, domain and forcing data are described here in detail. The model (CP4-Africa) uses a 4.5km horizontal grid spacing at the equator and is run without a convection parametrization, nested within a global atmospheric model driven by observations at the sea-surface which does include a convection scheme. An additional regional simulation, with identical resolution and physical parametrizations to the global model, but with the domain, land surface and aerosol climatologies of the CP4-Africa model, has been run to aid understanding of the differences between the CP4-Africa and global model, in particular to isolate the impact of the convection parametrization and resolution. The effect of enforcing moisture conservation in the CP4-Africa model is described and its impact on reducing extreme precipitation values is assessed. Preliminary results from the first 5 years of the CP4-Africa simulation show substantial improvements in JJA average rainfall compared to the parameterized convection models, with most notably a reduction in the persistent dry bias in West Africa - giving an indication of the benefits to be gained from running a convection-permitting simulation over the whole African continent

The impacts of climate change on water resources in the Okavango basin

The need for coherent river basin management plans has become a driving force behind the use of models in understanding how basin hydrology will be affected by change. Of particular interest is how water availability will be affected by climate change and by growing demands for a finite resource. The Okavango basin, located in sub-Saharan Africa is a large, endorheic basin with the river terminating in the vast expanse of the ecologically important Okavango delta. It is also a transboundary basin transecting Angola, Namibia and terminating in Botswana. The end of the Angolan civil war has brought stability and development to the region. With increasing abstractions, due to human development, and possible reductions in available water, due to changing rainfall and evaporation patterns, flows entering the delta will be altered. Considering these possibilities a grid-based model has been used to examine current and future water availability and flows entering the delta system