Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure in Europe : adjusting for the impact of rebates and discounts

European healthcare systems are under constant pressure to contain healthcare expenditure. Understanding future drug expenditure is an important consideration for payers when formulating policies. QuintileIMS publishes European forecasts that are underpinned by its audited volume data and publicly available list prices. With increasing price pressures, list to net price divergence is growing, although some of this information is commercially sensitive and thus not publicly available. The objective of this study was to further develop an established forecast to account for this divergence and explore its impact

Projecting Pharmaceutical Expenditure in EU5 to 2021: Adjusting for the Impact of Discounts and Rebates

Within (European) healthcare systems, the main goal for pharmaceutical expenditure is cost containment. This is due to a general belief among healthcare policy makers that pharmaceutical expenditure—driven by high prices—will be unsustainable unless further reforms are enacted.The aim of the research published in this paper is to provide more realistic expectations of pharmaceutical expenditure for all key stakeholder groups by estimating pharmaceutical expenditure at ‘net’ prices. We also aim to estimate any gaps developing between list and net pharmaceutical expenditure for the EU5 countries (i.e. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK). We adjusted an established forecast of pharmaceutical expenditure for the EU5 countries, from 2017 to 2021, by reflecting discounts and rebates not previously considered, i.e. we moved from ‘list’ to ‘net’ prices, as far as data were available.We found an increasing divergence between expenditure measured at list and net prices. When the forecasts for the five countries were aggregated, the EU5 (unweighted) average historical growth (2010–2016) rate fell from 3.4% compound annual growth rate at list to 2.5% at net. For the forecast, the net growth rate was estimated at 1.5 versus 2.9% at list.Our results suggest that future growth in pharmaceutical expenditure in Europe is likely to be (1) lower than previously understood from forecasts based on list prices and (2) below predicted healthcare expenditure growth in Europe and in line with long-term economic growth rates. For policy makers concerned about the sustainability of pharmaceutical expenditure, this study may provide some comfort, in that the perceived problem is not as large as expected

Projecting Pharmaceutical Expenditure in EU5 to 2021: Adjusting for the Impact of Discounts and Rebates

Background: Within (European) healthcare systems, the predominant goal for pharmaceutical expenditure is cost containment. This is due to a general belief among healthcare policy makers that pharmaceutical expenditure—driven by high prices—will be unsustainable unless further reforms are enacted. Objective: The aim of this paper is to provide more realistic expectations of pharmaceutical expenditure for all key stakeholder groups by estimating pharmaceutical expenditure at ‘net’ prices. We also aim to estimate any gaps developing between list and net pharmaceutical expenditure for the EU5 countries (i.e. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK). Methods: We adjusted an established forecast of pharmaceutical expenditure for the EU5 countries, from 2017 to 2021, by reflecting discounts and rebates not previously considered, i.e. we moved from ‘list’ to ‘net’ prices, as far as data were available. Results: We found an increasing divergence between expenditure measured at list and net prices. When the forecasts for the five countries were aggregated, the EU5 (unweighted) average historical growth (2010–2016) rate fell from 3.4% compound annual growth rate at list to 2.5% at net. For the forecast, the net growth rate was estimated at 1.5 versus 2.9% at list. Conclusions: Our results suggest that future growth in pharmaceutical expenditure in Europe is likely to be (1) lower than previously understood from forecasts based on list prices and (2) below predicted healthcare expenditure growth in Europe and in line with long-term economic growth rates. For policy makers concerned about the sustainability of pharmaceutical expenditure, this study may provide some comfort, in that the perceived problem is not as large as expected

Future of Specialist Practice Qualifications in district nursing for band 6 leadership roles

District nurse numbers in the UK are rapidly declining. To overcome this severe staff shortage, one community trust in a rural county appointed 'case managers' (nurses without Specialist Practice Qualifications in district nursing [SPQDN]) in band 6 leadership roles that were traditionally held by district nurses. Here, we aimed to establish the value of the SPQDN to determine if there is a future for the conventionally accepted DN role, instead of case managers. The study used an exploratory mixed-methods design. Using the classic e-Delphi technique, data were collected over 5 months from 10 purposively sampled senior nurse managers employed by the community trust who formed an expert panel. In round one, the panellists provided three responses each to the question 'what is the future for district nurse specialist practitioner qualifications in [the trust] for band 6 leadership roles?' In rounds two and three, they answered a close-ended questionnaire using a 3-point Likert scale. The core findings suggest that SPQDN and the district nurse role are considered extremely valuable (both achieving 100% consensus). Additional findings are linked to four core themes, namely, (1) SPQDN, (2) clinical practice educators, (3) workforce and (4) leadership. This study recommends continued investment in SPQDN and the district nurse role with the use of succession planning for workforce management.

Crowd and Experts’ Knowledge: Connection and Value Through the Notion of Prism

Crowdsourcing is an online activity in which an individual, an institution, a non-profit organization, or company proposes to a group of individuals of varying knowledge, heterogeneity, and number, via a flexible open call, the voluntary undertaking of a task. Crowdsourcing has been traditionally considered suitable to provide different types of support to the decision making process, especially in the design phase, through idea generation and co-creation, in the choice phase, through voting, as well as in the intelligence phase to explore or exploit information about the issue to be investigated. This article aims to investigate how to perform scenario planning by exploring ways to use crowdsourcing as a complement to two standard techniques for idea generation and selection: (a) brainstorming and (b) the Delphi method. Then, we question the cost and the effectiveness of combining these methods, and crowdsourcing to perform scenario planning for policy making. To this end, in this article we propose a model to assess the cost and effectiveness of the intersection between crowd and experts in decision-making activities, with a focus on scenario planning, choosing a public sector research site for its evaluation