Evidence in Classical Statistics

The dominance of classical statistics raises a puzzle for epistemologists. On one hand, science is a paradigmatic source of good evidence, with quantitative experimental science often described in classical statistical terms. On the other, the hybrid of Fisherian and Neyman-Pearsonian techniques is generally rejected by philosophers, statisticians, and scientists who study the foundations of statistics. So why is the use of classical statistics in empirical science so epistemically successful? Do classical “measures” of evidence actually measure anything epistemically important? This chapter provides some positive answers to these questions

Rapid iododeboronation with and without gold catalysis: application to radiolabelling of arenes

Radiopharmaceuticals incorporating radioactive iodine in combination with SPECT imaging play a key role in nuclear medicine, with applications in drug development and disease diagnosis. Despite this importance, there are relatively few general methods for incorporating radioiodine into small molecules. Here we describe a rapid, air- and moisture-stable ipso-iododeboronation procedure using NIS, in the non-toxic and green solvent dimethyl carbonate. The fast reaction and mild conditions of the gold-catalysed method led to the development of a highly efficient process for radiolabelling of arenes, which constitutes the first example of an application of homogenous gold catalysis to selective radiosynthesis. This has been exemplified with an effective synthesis of radiolabelled meta-[125I]iodobenzylguanidine, a radiopharmaceutical used for the imaging and therapy of human norepinephrine transporter-expressing tumours

Evidence in Classical Statistics

The dominance of classical statistics raises a puzzle for epistemologists. On one hand, science is a paradigmatic source of good evidence, with quantitative experimental science often described in classical statistical terms. On the other, the hybrid of Fisherian and Neyman-Pearsonian techniques is generally rejected by philosophers, statisticians, and scientists who study the foundations of statistics. So why is the use of classical statistics in empirical science so epistemically successful? Do classical “measures” of evidence actually measure anything epistemically important? This chapter provides some positive answers to these questions

Spitzer IRS observations of Titan as a precursor to JWST MIRI observations

In this work, we present for the first time infrared spectra of Titan from the Spitzer Space Telescope (2004–2009). The data are from both the short wavelength–low resolution (SL; 5.13–14.29 μm, R ∼ 60–127) and short wavelength–high resolution (SH; 9.89–19.51 μm, R ∼ 600) channels showing the emissions of CH4, C2H2, C2H4, C2H6, C3H4, C3H6, C3H8, C4H2, HCN, HC3N, and CO2. We compare the results obtained for Titan from Spitzer to those of the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) for the same time period, focusing on the 16.35–19.35 μm wavelength range observed by the SH channel but impacted by higher noise levels in the CIRS observations. We use the SH data to provide estimated haze extinction cross sections for the 16.67–17.54 μm range that are missing in previous studies. We conclude by identifying spectral features in the 16.35–19.35 μm wavelength range that could be analyzed further through upcoming James Webb Space Telescope Cycle 1 observations with the Mid-Infrared Instrument (5.0–28.3 μm, R ∼ 1500–3500). We also highlight gaps in the current spectroscopic knowledge of molecular bands, including candidate trace species such as C60 and detected trace species such as C3H6, that could be addressed by theoretical and laboratory study

Equatorial winds on Saturn and the stratospheric oscillation

The zonal jets on the giant planets have been thought to be stable in time. A decline in the velocity of Saturn’s equatorial jet has been identified, on the basis of a comparison of cloud-tracking data across two decades, but the differences in cloud speeds have since been suggested to stem from changes in cloud altitude in combination with vertical wind shear, rather than from temporal changes in wind strength at a given height. Here, we combine observations of cloud tracks and of atmospheric temperatures taken by two instruments on the Cassini spacecraft to reveal a significant temporal variation in the strength of the high-altitude equatorial jet on Saturn. Specifically, we find that wind speeds at atmospheric pressure levels of 60 mbar, corresponding to Saturn’s tropopause, increased by about 20 m s^(−1) between 2004 and 2008, whereas the wind speed has been essentially constant over time in the southern equatorial troposphere. The observations further reveal that the equatorial jet intensified by about 60 m s^(−1) between 2005 and 2008 in the stratosphere, that is, at pressure levels of 1–5 mbar. Because the wind acceleration is weaker near the tropopause than higher up, in the stratosphere, we conclude that the semi-annual equatorial oscillation of Saturn’s middle atmosphere is also damped as it propagates downwards

Saturn's emitted power

Long-term (2004–2009) on-orbit observations by Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer are analyzed to precisely measure Saturn's emitted power and its meridional distribution. Our evaluations suggest that the average global emitted power is 4.952 ± 0.035 W m^(−2) during the period of 2004–2009. The corresponding effective temperature is 96.67 ± 0.17 K. The emitted power is 16.6% higher in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. From 2005 to 2009, the global mean emitted power and effective temperature decreased by ~2% and ~0.5%, respectively. Our study further reveals the interannual variability of emitted power and effective temperature between the epoch of Voyager (~1 Saturn year ago) and the current epoch of Cassini, suggesting changes in the cloud opacity from year to year on Saturn. The seasonal and interannual variability of emitted power implies that the energy balance and internal heat are also varying

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

Report from the Annual Conference of the British Society of Echocardiography, November 2017, Edinburgh International Conference Centre, Edinburgh

No abstract available

Co-infections, secondary infections, and antimicrobial use in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 during the first pandemic wave from the ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study: a multicentre, prospective cohort study

Background: Microbiological characterisation of co-infections and secondary infections in patients with COVID-19 is lacking, and antimicrobial use is high. We aimed to describe microbiologically confirmed co-infections and secondary infections, and antimicrobial use, in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Methods: The International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study is an ongoing, prospective cohort study recruiting inpatients from 260 hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales, conducted by the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium. Patients with a confirmed or clinician-defined high likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection were eligible for inclusion in the ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study. For this specific study, we excluded patients with a recorded negative SARS-CoV-2 test result and those without a recorded outcome at 28 days after admission. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, therapeutic, and outcome data were collected using a prespecified case report form. Organisms considered clinically insignificant were excluded. Findings: We analysed data from 48 902 patients admitted to hospital between Feb 6 and June 8, 2020. The median patient age was 74 years (IQR 59–84) and 20 786 (42·6%) of 48 765 patients were female. Microbiological investigations were recorded for 8649 (17·7%) of 48 902 patients, with clinically significant COVID-19-related respiratory or bloodstream culture results recorded for 1107 patients. 762 (70·6%) of 1080 infections were secondary, occurring more than 2 days after hospital admission. Staphylococcus aureus and Haemophilus influenzae were the most common pathogens causing respiratory co-infections (diagnosed ≤2 days after admission), with Enterobacteriaceae and S aureus most common in secondary respiratory infections. Bloodstream infections were most frequently caused by Escherichia coli and S aureus. Among patients with available data, 13 390 (37·0%) of 36 145 had received antimicrobials in the community for this illness episode before hospital admission and 39 258 (85·2%) of 46 061 patients with inpatient antimicrobial data received one or more antimicrobials at some point during their admission (highest for patients in critical care). We identified frequent use of broad-spectrum agents and use of carbapenems rather than carbapenem-sparing alternatives. Interpretation: In patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, microbiologically confirmed bacterial infections are rare, and more likely to be secondary infections. Gram-negative organisms and S aureus are the predominant pathogens. The frequency and nature of antimicrobial use are concerning, but tractable targets for stewardship interventions exist. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, EU Platform for European Preparedness Against (Re-)emerging Epidemics, NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at University of Liverpool, and NIHR HPRU in Respiratory Infections at Imperial College London