Anticipating the species jump: surveillance for emerging viral threats.

Zoonotic disease surveillance is typically triggered after animal pathogens have already infected humans. Are there ways to identify high-risk viruses before they emerge in humans? If so, then how and where can identifications be made and by what methods? These were the fundamental questions driving a workshop to examine the future of predictive surveillance for viruses that might jump from animals to infect humans. Virologists, ecologists and computational biologists from academia, federal government and non-governmental organizations discussed opportunities as well as obstacles to the prediction of species jumps using genetic and ecological data from viruses and their hosts, vectors and reservoirs. This workshop marked an important first step towards envisioning both scientific and organizational frameworks for this future capability. Canine parvoviruses as well as seasonal H3N2 and pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses are discussed as exemplars that suggest what to look for in anticipating species jumps. To answer the question of where to look, prospects for discovering emerging viruses among wildlife, bats, rodents, arthropod vectors and occupationally exposed humans are discussed. Finally, opportunities and obstacles are identified and accompanied by suggestions for how to look for species jumps. Taken together, these findings constitute the beginnings of a conceptual framework for achieving a virus surveillance capability that could predict future species jumps

Normative Ethics Does Not Need a Foundation: It Needs More Science

The impact of science on ethics forms since long the subject of intense debate. Although there is a growing consensus that science can describe morality and explain its evolutionary origins, there is less consensus about the ability of science to provide input to the normative domain of ethics. Whereas defenders of a scientific normative ethics appeal to naturalism, its critics either see the naturalistic fallacy committed or argue that the relevance of science to normative ethics remains undemonstrated. In this paper, we argue that current scientific normative ethicists commit no fallacy, that criticisms of scientific ethics contradict each other, and that scientific insights are relevant to normative inquiries by informing ethics about the options open to the ethical debate. Moreover, when conceiving normative ethics as being a nonfoundational ethics, science can be used to evaluate every possible norm. This stands in contrast to foundational ethics in which some norms remain beyond scientific inquiry. Finally, we state that a difference in conception of normative ethics underlies the disagreement between proponents and opponents of a scientific ethics. Our argument is based on and preceded by a reconsideration of the notions naturalistic fallacy and foundational ethics. This argument differs from previous work in scientific ethics: whereas before the philosophical project of naturalizing the normative has been stressed, here we focus on concrete consequences of biological findings for normative decisions or on the day-to-day normative relevance of these scientific insights

A case study of bovine tuberculosis in an area of County Donegal, Ireland

A descriptive analysis, to investigate the potential risk factors that might have contributed to the increased incidence of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) herd-breakdowns in the reference area of Co. Donegal during the fifth year of the four-area project (FAP), was performed. Seventy two different herds were restricted for BTB during the FAP; 10 of these herds were restricted twice, resulting in a total of 82 BTB breakdowns. During the first four years of the FAP, the number of BTB herd breakdowns in the area varied from a lowest of nine to a maximum of 18 per year, and were geographically dispersed. In the fifth year of the study a considerable increase in the number of BTB breakdowns (n = 32) was observed, and there was a spatial 'cluster' of infected herds in the eastern part of the study area. The increased number of BTB breakdowns during the fifth year most likely occurred because of the recrudescence of infection, herd-to-herd transmission and, to a lesser extent, purchase of infected cattle. Infected badgers remain as a possible but less likely source of infection, especially as an explanation for the cluster of infected herds. The analysis supports the hypothesis that BTB in herds is a problem that cannot be addressed successfully by dedicating our efforts to the elimination of single risk factors. Neither is it a problem that needs to be investigated only at the herd level, but rather at the area level, including groups of contiguous herds

What Values in Design? The Challenge of Incorporating Moral Values into Design

Recently, there is increased attention to the integration of moral values into the conception, design, and development of emerging IT. The most reviewed approach for this purpose in ethics and technology so far is Value-Sensitive Design (VSD). This article considers VSD as the prime candidate for implementing normative considerations into design. Its methodology is considered from a conceptual, analytical, normative perspective. The focus here is on the suitability of VSD for integrating moral values into the design of technologies in a way that joins in with an analytical perspective on ethics of technology. Despite its promising character, it turns out that VSD falls short in several respects: (1) VSD does not have a clear methodology for identifying stakeholders, (2) the integration of empirical methods with conceptual research within the methodology of VSD is obscure, (3) VSD runs the risk of committing the naturalistic fallacy when using empirical knowledge for implementing values in design, (4) the concept of values, as well as their realization, is left undetermined and (5) VSD lacks a complimentary or explicit ethical theory for dealing with value trade-offs. For the normative evaluation of a technology, I claim that an explicit and justified ethical starting point or principle is required. Moreover, explicit attention should be given to the value aims and assumptions of a particular design. The criteria of adequacy for such an approach or methodology follow from the evaluation of VSD as the prime candidate for implementing moral values in design

Genome-wide association study identifies the GLDC/IL33 locus associated with survival of osteosarcoma patients

Survival rates for osteosarcoma, the most common primary bone cancer, have changed little over the past three decades and are particularly low for patients with metastatic disease. We conducted a multi‐institutional genome‐wide association study (GWAS) to identify germline genetic variants associated with overall survival in 632 patients with osteosarcoma, including 523 patients of European ancestry and 109 from Brazil. We conducted a time‐to‐event analysis and estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using Cox proportional hazards models, with and without adjustment for metastatic disease. The results were combined across the European and Brazilian case sets using a random‐effects meta‐analysis. The strongest association after meta‐analysis was for rs3765555 at 9p24.1, which was inversely associated with overall survival (HR = 1.76; 95% CI 1.41–2.18, p = 4.84 × 10−7). After imputation across this region, the combined analysis identified two SNPs that reached genome‐wide significance. The strongest single association was with rs55933544 (HR = 1.9; 95% CI 1.5–2.4; p = 1.3 × 10−8), which localizes to the GLDC gene, adjacent to the IL33 gene and was consistent across both the European and Brazilian case sets. Using publicly available data, the risk allele was associated with lower expression of IL33 and low expression of IL33 was associated with poor survival in an independent set of patients with osteosarcoma. In conclusion, we have identified the GLDC/IL33 locus on chromosome 9p24.1 as associated with overall survival in patients with osteosarcoma. Further studies are needed to confirm this association and shed light on the biological underpinnings of this susceptibility locus

Neuromotor Noise, Error Tolerance and Velocity-Dependent Costs in Skilled Performance

In motor tasks with redundancy neuromotor noise can lead to variations in execution while achieving relative invariance in the result. The present study examined whether humans find solutions that are tolerant to intrinsic noise. Using a throwing task in a virtual set-up where an infinite set of angle and velocity combinations at ball release yield throwing accuracy, our computational approach permitted quantitative predictions about solution strategies that are tolerant to noise. Based on a mathematical model of the task expected results were computed and provided predictions about error-tolerant strategies (Hypothesis 1). As strategies can take on a large range of velocities, a second hypothesis was that subjects select strategies that minimize velocity at release to avoid costs associated with signal- or velocity-dependent noise or higher energy demands (Hypothesis 2). Two experiments with different target constellations tested these two hypotheses. Results of Experiment 1 showed that subjects chose solutions with high error-tolerance, although these solutions also had relatively low velocity. These two benefits seemed to outweigh that for many subjects these solutions were close to a high-penalty area, i.e. they were risky. Experiment 2 dissociated the two hypotheses. Results showed that individuals were consistent with Hypothesis 1 although their solutions were distributed over a range of velocities. Additional analyses revealed that a velocity-dependent increase in variability was absent, probably due to the presence of a solution manifold that channeled variability in a task-specific manner. Hence, the general acceptance of signal-dependent noise may need some qualification. These findings have significance for the fundamental understanding of how the central nervous system deals with its inherent neuromotor noise

f(R) theories

Over the past decade, f(R) theories have been extensively studied as one of the simplest modifications to General Relativity. In this article we review various applications of f(R) theories to cosmology and gravity - such as inflation, dark energy, local gravity constraints, cosmological perturbations, and spherically symmetric solutions in weak and strong gravitational backgrounds. We present a number of ways to distinguish those theories from General Relativity observationally and experimentally. We also discuss the extension to other modified gravity theories such as Brans-Dicke theory and Gauss-Bonnet gravity, and address models that can satisfy both cosmological and local gravity constraints.Comment: 156 pages, 14 figures, Invited review article in Living Reviews in Relativity, Published version, Comments are welcom