Hyperbolic Memory Discounting and the Political Business Cycle

The vintage political business cycle framework of Nordhaus (1975) represents the idea that the macroeconomic business cycle is manipulated opportunistically by an incumbent government to achieve re-election. A key assumption in this prototypical framework is that voters discount their memories about unemployment and inflation at a constant rate. Yet starting with Ebbinghaus (1885) and Jost (1897), a large body of research in psychology documents an empirical regularity that has come to be known as Jost\u27s Second Law of Forgetting-individuals discount recent memories at a higher rate compared to the rate at which they discount older memories. I find that incorporating this insight from psychology (i.e., hyperbolic memory discounting) into the benchmark framework moderates the amplitude of the predicted political business cycle. © 2015 Elsevier B.V

Time Inconsistency and Retirement Choice

Hyperbolic discounting with naiveté is widely believed to provide a better explanation than exponential discounting of why people borrow so much and why they wait so long to save for retirement. We reach a different set of conclusions. We show that if financial planning is enriched to include the choice of when to retire, then naïve hyperbolic discounters may borrow far less and start saving for retirement significantly earlier than exponential discounters

Genetic marker anchoring by six-dimensional pools for development of a soybean physical map

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Integrated genetic and physical maps are extremely valuable for genomic studies and as important references for assembling whole genome shotgun sequences. Screening of a BAC library using molecular markers is an indispensable procedure for integration of both physical and genetic maps of a genome. Molecular markers provide anchor points for integration of genetic and physical maps and also validate BAC contigs assembled based solely on BAC fingerprints. We employed a six-dimensional BAC pooling strategy and an <it>in silico </it>approach to anchor molecular markers onto the soybean physical map.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 1,470 markers (580 SSRs and 890 STSs) were anchored by PCR on a subset of a Williams 82 <it>Bst</it>Y I BAC library pooled into 208 pools in six dimensions. This resulted in 7,463 clones (~1× genome equivalent) associated with 1470 markers, of which the majority of clones (6,157, 82.5%) were anchored by one marker and 1106 (17.5%) individual clones contained two or more markers. This contributed to 1184 contigs having anchor points through this 6-D pool screening effort. In parallel, the 21,700 soybean Unigene set from NCBI was used to perform <it>in silico </it>mapping on 80,700 Williams 82 BAC end sequences (BES). This <it>in silico </it>analysis yielded 9,835 positive results anchored by 4152 unigenes that contributed to 1305 contigs and 1624 singletons. Among the 1305 contigs, 305 have not been previously anchored by PCR. Therefore, 1489 (78.8%) of 1893 contigs are anchored with molecular markers. These results are being integrated with BAC fingerprints to assemble the BAC contigs. Ultimately, these efforts will lead to an integrated physical and genetic map resource.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We demonstrated that the six-dimensional soybean BAC pools can be efficiently used to anchor markers to soybean BACs despite the complexity of the soybean genome. In addition to anchoring markers, the 6-D pooling method was also effective for targeting BAC clones for investigating gene families and duplicated regions in the genome, as well as for extending physical map contigs.</p

Comparison of high- versus low-intensity community health worker intervention to promote newborn and child health in Northern Nigeria

In Northern Nigeria, infant mortality rates are two to three times higher than in the southern states, and, in 2008, a partnership program to improve maternal, newborn, and child health was established to reduce infant and child mortality in three Northern Nigeria states. The program intervention zones received government-supported health services plus integrated interventions at primary health care posts and development of community-based service delivery (CBSD) with a network of community volunteers and community health workers (CHWs), who focus on educating women about danger signs for themselves and their infants and promoting appropriate responses to the observation of those danger signs, consistent with the approach of the World Health Organization Integrated Management of Neonatal and Childhood Illness strategy. Before going to scale in the rest of the state, it is important to identify the relative effectiveness of the low-intensity volunteer approach versus the more intensive CBSD approach with CHWs. We conducted stratified cluster sample household surveys at baseline (2009) and follow-up (2011) to assess changes in newborn and sick child care practices among women with births in the five prior years (baseline: n = 6,906; follow-up: n = 2,310). The follow-up respondents were grouped by level of intensity of the CHW interventions in their community, with “low” including group activities led only by a trained community volunteer and “high” including the community volunteer activities plus CBSD from a CHW providing one-on-one advice and assistance. t-tests were used to test for significant differences from baseline to follow-up, and F-statistics, which adjust for the stratified cluster design, were used to test for significant differences between the control, low-intensity, and high-intensity intervention groups at follow-up. These analyses focused on changes in newborn and sick child care practices. Anti-tetanus vaccination coverage during pregnancy increased from 69.2% at baseline to 85.7% at follow-up in the intervention areas. Breastfeeding within 24 hours increased from 42.9% to 59.0% in the intervention areas, and more newborns were checked by health workers within 48 hours (from 16.8% at baseline to 26.8% at follow-up in the intervention areas). Newborns were more likely to be checked by trained health personnel, and they received more comprehensive newborn care. Compared to the control communities, more than twice as many women in intervention communities knew to watch for specific newborn danger signs. Compared to the control and low-intensity intervention communities, more mothers in the high-intensity communities learned about the care of sick children from CHWs, with a corresponding decline those seeking advice from family or friends or traditional birth attendants. Significantly fewer mothers did nothing when their child was sick. High-intensity intervention communities experienced the most decline. Those who did nothing for children with fever or cough declined from 35% to 30%, and with diarrhea from 40% to 31%. Use of medications, both traditional and modern, increased from baseline to follow-up, with no differentiation in use by intervention area. The community-based approach to promoting improved newborn and sick child care through community volunteers and CHWs resulted in improved newborn and sick child care. The low-intensity approach with community volunteers appears to have been as effective as the higher-intensity CBSD approach with CHWs for several of the key newborn and sick child care indicators, particularly in the provision of appropriate home care for children with fever or cough

Bacanora and Sotol: So Far, So Close

El propósito de este trabajo es familiarizar al lector con algunos aspectos relacionados, no sólo con dos bebidas alcohólicas de profundo arraigo en la cultura rural del México norteño, sino también con Agave angustifolia, conocido en Sonora como “agave (o mezcal) bacanora”; y un grupo de especies del género Dasylirion, conocido en México como “sotoles”, y “desert spoon” o ¨cuchara del desierto¨ en los Estados Unidos de América. Ambas comparten múltiples características morfológicas, fisiológicas y ecológicas que les permiten vivir en ambientes áridos. De igual forma, también intenta señalar aspectos únicos de las dos denominaciones de origen que protegen la elaboración de esas bebidas y que han surgido en los albores de este siglo, así como a las normas que rigen su elaboración

New Limits to the Infrared Background: Bounds on Radiative Neutrino Decay and on Contributions of Very Massive Objects to the Dark Matter Problem

From considering the effect of γ-γ interactions on recently observed TeV gamma-ray spectra, improved limits are set to the density of extragalactic infrared photons which are robust and essentially model independent. The resulting limits are more than an order of magnitude more restrictive than direct observations in the 0.025–0.3 eV regime. These limits are used to improve constraints on radiative neutrino decay in the mass range above 0.05 eV and to rule out very massive objects as providing the dark matter needed to explain galaxy rotation curves. Lower bounds on the maximum distance which TeV gamma rays may probe are also derived

Fascial tissue research in sports medicine: from molecules to tissue adaptation, injury and diagnostics.

The fascial system builds a three-dimensional continuum of soft, collagen-containing, loose and dense fibrous connective tissue that permeates the body and enables all body systems to operate in an integrated manner. Injuries to the fascial system cause a significant loss of performance in recreational exercise as well as high-performance sports, and could have a potential role in the development and perpetuation of musculoskeletal disorders, including lower back pain. Fascial tissues deserve more detailed attention in the field of sports medicine. A better understanding of their adaptation dynamics to mechanical loading as well as to biochemical conditions promises valuable improvements in terms of injury prevention, athletic performance and sports-related rehabilitation. This consensus statement reflects the state of knowledge regarding the role of fascial tissues in the discipline of sports medicine. It aims to (1) provide an overview of the contemporary state of knowledge regarding the fascial system from the microlevel (molecular and cellular responses) to the macrolevel (mechanical properties), (2) summarise the responses of the fascial system to altered loading (physical exercise), to injury and other physiological challenges including ageing, (3) outline the methods available to study the fascial system, and (4) highlight the contemporary view of interventions that target fascial tissue in sport and exercise medicine. Advancing this field will require a coordinated effort of researchers and clinicians combining mechanobiology, exercise physiology and improved assessment technologies

Framework, principles and recommendations for utilising participatory methodologies in the co-creation and evaluation of public health interventions

Background: Due to the chronic disease burden on society, there is a need for preventive public health interventions to stimulate society towards a healthier lifestyle. To deal with the complex variability between individual lifestyles and settings, collaborating with end-users to develop interventions tailored to their unique circumstances has been suggested as a potential way to improve effectiveness and adherence. Co-creation of public health interventions using participatory methodologies has shown promise but lacks a framework to make this process systematic. The aim of this paper was to identify and set key principles and recommendations for systematically applying participatory methodologies to co-create and evaluate public health interventions. Methods: These principles and recommendations were derived using an iterative reflection process, combining key learning from published literature in addition to critical reflection on three case studies conducted by research groups in three European institutions, all of whom have expertise in co-creating public health interventions using different participatory methodologies. Results: Key principles and recommendations for using participatory methodologies in public health intervention co-creation are presented for the stages of: Planning (framing the aim of the study and identifying the appropriate sampling strategy); Conducting (defining the procedure, in addition to manifesting ownership); Evaluating (the process and the effectiveness) and Reporting (providing guidelines to report the findings). Three scaling models are proposed to demonstrate how to scale locally developed interventions to a population level. Conclusions: These recommendations aim to facilitate public health intervention co-creation and evaluation utilising participatory methodologies by ensuring the process is systematic and reproducible