Non-Communicable Disease Mortality and Risk Factors in Formal and Informal Neighborhoods, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso: Evidence from a Health and Demographic Surveillance System

The expected growth in NCDs in cities is one of the most important health challenges of the coming decades in Sub-Saharan countries. This paper aims to fill the gap in our understanding of socio-economic differentials in NCD mortality and risk in low and middle income neighborhoods in urban Africa. We use data collected in the Ouagadougou Health and Demographic Surveillance System. 409 deaths were recorded between 2009–2011 among 20,836 individuals aged 35 years and older; verbal autopsies and the InterVA program were used to determine the probable cause of death. A random survey asked in 2011 1,039 adults aged 35 and over about tobacco use, heavy alcohol consumption, lack of physical activity and measured their weight, height, and blood pressure. These data reveal a high level of premature mortality due to NCDs in all neighborhoods: NCD mortality increases substantially by age 50. NCD mortality is greater in formal neighborhoods, while adult communicable disease mortality remains high, especially in informal neighborhoods. There is a high prevalence of risk factors for NCDs in the studied neighborhoods, with over one-fourth of the adults being overweight and over one-fourth having hypertension. Better-off residents are more prone to physical inactivity and excessive weight, while vulnerable populations such as widows/divorced individuals and migrants suffer more from higher blood pressure. Females have a significantly lower risk of being smokers or heavy drinkers, while they are more likely to be physically inactive or overweight, especially when married. Muslim individuals are less likely to be smokers or heavy drinkers, but have a higher blood pressure. Everything else being constant, individuals living in formal neighborhoods are more often overweight. The data presented make clear the pressing need to develop effective programs to reduce NCD risk across all types of neighborhoods in African cities, and suggest several entry points for community-based prevention programs

Northern Nigeria Maternal, Newborn and Child Health Programme: Selected Analyses from Population-Based Baseline Survey

Maternal mortality in Northern Nigeria is among the highest in the world. To guide programme planning we interviewed 7,442 women in April and May 2009 in three northern states (Katsina, Yobe, and Zamfara) to understand patterns of antenatal care and delivery. Here, we present findings from a population-based survey conducted under the PRRINN-MNCH Programme to provide evidence-base programmatic interventions aimed at improving maternal and child health indicators. In the paper, we outline the health challenges facing northern Nigeria, describe the PRRINN-MNCH Programme, describe the baseline survey design, implementation, and subsequent data. We provide a series of maternal and child health indicators in order to address two key important policy issues: (1) the importance of visits to health care facilities to enable women get proper maternal care, and (2) the importance of having access to skilled personnel at birth. We further describe how these data can be used to develop appropriate strategies for integrated programmes to increase awareness of pregnancy and delivery complications and to reduce the barriers to assessing risk and accessing the facilities in a timely manner. Appropriate strategies and interventions are necessary to address the existing health challenges. To a large extent, these data also provide an opportunity to measure the impact of the programme in assisting Nigeria attain the health Millennium Development Goals of maternal and child health

Comparison of high- versus low-intensity community health worker intervention to promote newborn and child health in Northern Nigeria

In Northern Nigeria, infant mortality rates are two to three times higher than in the southern states, and, in 2008, a partnership program to improve maternal, newborn, and child health was established to reduce infant and child mortality in three Northern Nigeria states. The program intervention zones received government-supported health services plus integrated interventions at primary health care posts and development of community-based service delivery (CBSD) with a network of community volunteers and community health workers (CHWs), who focus on educating women about danger signs for themselves and their infants and promoting appropriate responses to the observation of those danger signs, consistent with the approach of the World Health Organization Integrated Management of Neonatal and Childhood Illness strategy. Before going to scale in the rest of the state, it is important to identify the relative effectiveness of the low-intensity volunteer approach versus the more intensive CBSD approach with CHWs. We conducted stratified cluster sample household surveys at baseline (2009) and follow-up (2011) to assess changes in newborn and sick child care practices among women with births in the five prior years (baseline: n = 6,906; follow-up: n = 2,310). The follow-up respondents were grouped by level of intensity of the CHW interventions in their community, with “low” including group activities led only by a trained community volunteer and “high” including the community volunteer activities plus CBSD from a CHW providing one-on-one advice and assistance. t-tests were used to test for significant differences from baseline to follow-up, and F-statistics, which adjust for the stratified cluster design, were used to test for significant differences between the control, low-intensity, and high-intensity intervention groups at follow-up. These analyses focused on changes in newborn and sick child care practices. Anti-tetanus vaccination coverage during pregnancy increased from 69.2% at baseline to 85.7% at follow-up in the intervention areas. Breastfeeding within 24 hours increased from 42.9% to 59.0% in the intervention areas, and more newborns were checked by health workers within 48 hours (from 16.8% at baseline to 26.8% at follow-up in the intervention areas). Newborns were more likely to be checked by trained health personnel, and they received more comprehensive newborn care. Compared to the control communities, more than twice as many women in intervention communities knew to watch for specific newborn danger signs. Compared to the control and low-intensity intervention communities, more mothers in the high-intensity communities learned about the care of sick children from CHWs, with a corresponding decline those seeking advice from family or friends or traditional birth attendants. Significantly fewer mothers did nothing when their child was sick. High-intensity intervention communities experienced the most decline. Those who did nothing for children with fever or cough declined from 35% to 30%, and with diarrhea from 40% to 31%. Use of medications, both traditional and modern, increased from baseline to follow-up, with no differentiation in use by intervention area. The community-based approach to promoting improved newborn and sick child care through community volunteers and CHWs resulted in improved newborn and sick child care. The low-intensity approach with community volunteers appears to have been as effective as the higher-intensity CBSD approach with CHWs for several of the key newborn and sick child care indicators, particularly in the provision of appropriate home care for children with fever or cough

Early results of an integrated maternal, newborn, and child health program, Northern Nigeria, 2009 to 2011

Background: This paper describes early results of an integrated maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) program in Northern Nigeria where child mortality rates are two to three times higher than in the southern states. The intervention model integrated critical health systems changes needed to reinvigorate MNCH health services, together with community-based activities aimed at mobilizing and enabling women to make changes in their MNCH practices. Control Local Government Areas received less-intense statewide policy changes. Methods: The impact of the intervention was assessed using a quasi-experimental design, comparing MNCH behaviors and outcomes in the intervention and control areas, before and after implementation of the systems and community activities. Stratified random household surveys were conducted at baseline in 2009 (n = 2,129) and in 2011 at follow-up (n = 2310), with women with births in the five years prior to household surveys. Chi-square and t-tests were used to document presence of significant improvements in several MNCH outcomes. Results: Between baseline and follow-up, anti-tetanus vaccination rates increased from 69.0% to 85.0%, and early breastfeeding also increased, from 42.9% to 57.5%. More newborns were checked by trained health workers (39.2% to 75.5%), and women were performing more of the critical newborn care activities at follow-up. Fewer women relied on the traditional birth attendant for health advice (48.4% to 11.0%, with corresponding increases in advice from trained health workers. At follow-up, most of these improvements were greater in the intervention than control communities. In the intervention communities, there was less use of anti-malarials for all symptoms, coupled with more use of other medications and traditional, herbal remedies. Infant and child mortality declined in both intervention and control communities, with the greatest declines in intervention communities. In the intervention communities, infant mortality rate declined from 90 at baseline to 59 at follow-up, while child mortality declined from 160 to 84. Conclusions: These results provide evidence that in the context of ongoing improvements to the primary health care system, the participatory and community-based interventions focusing on improved newborn and infant care were effective at changing infant care practices and outcomes in the intervention communities

Association between severe drought and HIV prevention and care behaviors in Lesotho: A population-based survey 2016–2017

Background A previous analysis of the impact of drought in Africa on HIV demonstrated an 11% greater prevalence in HIV-endemic rural areas attributable to local rainfall shocks. The Lesotho Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment (LePHIA) was conducted after the severe drought of 2014–2016, allowing for reevaluation of this relationship in a setting of expanded antiretroviral coverage. Methods and findings LePHIA selected a nationally representative sample between November 2016 and May 2017. All adults aged 15–59 years in randomly selected households were invited to complete an interview and HIV testing, with one woman per household eligible to answer questions on their experience of sexual violence. Deviations in rainfall for May 2014–June 2016 were estimated using precipitation data from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data (CHIRPS), with drought defined as <15% of the average rainfall from 1981 to 2016. The association between drought and risk behaviors as well as HIV-related outcomes was assessed using logistic regression, incorporating complex survey weights. Analyses were stratified by age, sex, and geography (urban versus rural). All of Lesotho suffered from reduced rainfall, with regions receiving 1%–36% of their historical rainfall. Of the 12,887 interviewed participants, 93.5% (12,052) lived in areas that experienced drought, with the majority in rural areas (7,281 versus 4,771 in urban areas). Of the 835 adults living in areas without drought, 520 were in rural areas and 315 in urban. Among females 15–19 years old, living in a rural drought area was associated with early sexual debut (odds ratio [OR] 3.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.43–6.74, p = 0.004), and higher HIV prevalence (OR 2.77, 95% CI 1.19–6.47, p = 0.02). It was also associated with lower educational attainment in rural females ages 15–24 years (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.25–0.78, p = 0.005). Multivariable analysis adjusting for household wealth and sexual behavior showed that experiencing drought increased the odds of HIV infection among females 15–24 years old (adjusted OR [aOR] 1.80, 95% CI 0.96–3.39, p = 0.07), although this was not statistically significant. Migration was associated with 2-fold higher odds of HIV infection in young people (aOR 2.06, 95% CI 1.25–3.40, p = 0.006). The study was limited by the extensiveness of the drought and the small number of participants in the comparison group. Conclusions Drought in Lesotho was associated with higher HIV prevalence in girls 15–19 years old in rural areas and with lower educational attainment and riskier sexual behavior in rural females 15–24 years old. Policy-makers may consider adopting potential mechanisms to mitigate the impact of income shock from natural disasters on populations vulnerable to HIV transmission

State–Space Forecasting of Schistosoma haematobium Time-Series in Niono, Mali

Adequate forecasting and early warning systems are based upon observations of human behavior, population, disease time-series, climate, environment, and/or a combination thereof, whichever option best compromises among realism, feasibility, robustness, and parsimony. Fully automatic and user-friendly state–space forecasting frameworks, incorporating myriad options (e.g., expert opinion, univariate, multivariate, and spatial-temporal), could considerably enhance disease control and hazard mitigation efforts in regions where vulnerability to neglected tropical diseases is pervasive and statistical expertise is scarce. The operational simplicity, generality, and flexibility of state–space frameworks, encapsulating multiple methods, could conveniently allow for 1) unsupervised model selection without disease-specific methodological tailoring, 2) on-line adaptation to disease time-series fluctuations, and 3) automatic switches between distinct forecasting methods as new time-series perturbations dictate. In this investigation, a univariate state–space framework with the aforementioned properties was successfully applied to the Schistosoma haematobium time-series for the district of Niono, Mali, to automatically generate contemporaneous on-line forecasts and hence, providing a basis for local re-organization and strengthening public health programs in this and potentially other Sahelian districts

Forecasting Non-Stationary Diarrhea, Acute Respiratory Infection, and Malaria Time-Series in Niono, Mali

BACKGROUND: Much of the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, exhibits high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria. With the increasing awareness that the aforementioned infectious diseases impose an enormous burden on developing countries, public health programs therein could benefit from parsimonious general-purpose forecasting methods to enhance infectious disease intervention. Unfortunately, these disease time-series often i) suffer from non-stationarity; ii) exhibit large inter-annual plus seasonal fluctuations; and, iii) require disease-specific tailoring of forecasting methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this longitudinal retrospective (01/1996-06/2004) investigation, diarrhea, acute respiratory infection of the lower tract, and malaria consultation time-series are fitted with a general-purpose econometric method, namely the multiplicative Holt-Winters, to produce contemporaneous on-line forecasts for the district of Niono, Mali. This method accommodates seasonal, as well as inter-annual, fluctuations and produces reasonably accurate median 2- and 3-month horizon forecasts for these non-stationary time-series, i.e., 92% of the 24 time-series forecasts generated (2 forecast horizons, 3 diseases, and 4 age categories = 24 time-series forecasts) have mean absolute percentage errors circa 25%. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting method: i) performs well across diseases with dramatically distinct transmission modes and hence it is a strong general-purpose forecasting method candidate for non-stationary epidemiological time-series; ii) obliquely captures prior non-linear interactions between climate and the aforementioned disease dynamics thus, obviating the need for more complex disease-specific climate-based parametric forecasting methods in the district of Niono; furthermore, iii) readily decomposes time-series into seasonal components thereby potentially assisting with programming of public health interventions, as well as monitoring of disease dynamics modification. Therefore, these forecasts could improve infectious diseases management in the district of Niono, Mali, and elsewhere in the Sahel

Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Economic Growth in Developing Asia

Global sea level rise (SLR) variations have undeniably begun to make an impact on highly vulnerable economies. These impacts of SLR are a key component of the projected economic damage of climate change, an important input to climate change policies and adaptive measures. This paper considers SLR projections and its impact on the economy and includes a consolidation of various related studies. Estimated global gross domestic product (GDP) loss by 2100 ranges from 0.3% to as high as of 9.3% (Hinkel et al. 2014; Pycroft, Abrell, and Ciscar 2015). Climate change impact should be addressed at the global level through a locally focused effort where education and acceptance by all stakeholders are crucial and warranted. Further, this paper tackles several adaptive strategies as a response to SLR which include retreat, accommodation, and protection. The retreat strategy simulates that SLR causes the loss of inundated land and incurs planned relocation (migration) costs above a certain sea level. The accommodation strategy allows usage of vulnerable areas or land and limits damage by floodproofing or raising structures. Finally, the protection strategy projects that land will be protected from SLR damage by sea walls or other barriers of a certain height. On the other hand, Diaz (2016) estimates a median adaptation cost from migration at 16% of GDP under the least-cost strategy by 2050. In general, the education of and the acceptance by the concerned local community will be crucial in the successful implementation of SLR adaptation strategies, notwithstanding parallel mitigation efforts on a global scale

Models of classroom assessment for course-based research experiences

Course-based research pedagogy involves positioning students as contributors to authentic research projects as part of an engaging educational experience that promotes their learning and persistence in science. To develop a model for assessing and grading students engaged in this type of learning experience, the assessment aims and practices of a community of experienced course-based research instructors were collected and analyzed. This approach defines four aims of course-based research assessment—(1) Assessing Laboratory Work and Scientific Thinking; (2) Evaluating Mastery of Concepts, Quantitative Thinking and Skills; (3) Appraising Forms of Scientific Communication; and (4) Metacognition of Learning—along with a set of practices for each aim. These aims and practices of assessment were then integrated with previously developed models of course-based research instruction to reveal an assessment program in which instructors provide extensive feedback to support productive student engagement in research while grading those aspects of research that are necessary for the student to succeed. Assessment conducted in this way delicately balances the need to facilitate students’ ongoing research with the requirement of a final grade without undercutting the important aims of a CRE education

Migration from the Senegal River Valley, The role of family and community factors in

Series from publisher's list"Presented at the M.I.T Inter-University Seminar on International Migration, February 7, 1989."--p. 1Includes bibliographical references (p. [24]-[25]