Risk Maps of Lassa Fever in West Africa

Previous studies on the eco-epidemiology of Lassa fever in Guinea, West Africa, have shown that the reservoir is two to three times more infected by Lassa virus in the rainy season than in the dry season. None of the intrinsic variables of the murine population, such as abundance or reproduction, was able to explain this seasonal variation in prevalence. We therefore here investigate the importance of extrinsic environmental variables, partly influenced by the idea that in the case of nephropathia epidemica in Europe contamination of the environment, and therefore survival of the pathogen outside the host, appears to be an important factor in this disease's epidemiology. We therefore made an extensive review of the literature, gathering information about the geographical location of sites where Lassa fever has been certainly identified. Environmental data for these sites (rainfall, temperature, vegetation and altitude) were gathered from a variety of sources, both satellites and ground-based meteorological stations. Several statistical treatments were applied to produce Lassa ‘risk maps’. These maps all indicate a strong influence of rainfall, and a lesser influence of temperature in defining high risk areas. The area of greatest risk is located between Guinea and Cameroon

Association of hepatitis C virus genotype 2 spread with historic slave trade and commerce routes in Western Africa

The hepatitis C virus genotype 2 (HCV2) is endemic in Western and Central Africa. The HCV2 evolutionary origins remain uncertain due to the paucity of available genomes from African settings. In this study, we investigated the molecular epidemiology of HCV infections in rural Guinea, Western Africa, during 2004 and 2014. Broadly reactive nested reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-based screening of sera from 1,571 asymptomatic adults resulted in the detection of 25 (1.5 per cent; 95 per cent confidence interval 0.9-2.3) positive samples, with a median viral load of 2.54E + 05 IU/ml (interquartile range 6.72E + 05). HCV-infected persons had a median age of 47 years, and 62.5 per cent were male and 37.5 per cent were female. The full polyprotein-encoding genes were retrieved by a combination of high throughput and Sanger sequencing from 17 samples showing sufficiently high viral loads. Phylogenetic analysis and sequence distances >= 13 per cent averaged over the polyprotein genes compared to other HCV2 subtypes revealed nine previously unknown HCV2 subtypes. The time to the most recent common ancestor of the Guinean HCV2 strains inferred in a Bayesian framework was 493 years (95 per cent Highest posterior density (HPD) 453-532). Most of the Guinean strains clustered poorly by location on both the level of sampling sites within Guinea and the level of countries in the phylogenetic reconstructions. Ancestral state reconstruction provided decisive support (Bayes factor > 100) for an origin of HCV2 in Western Africa. Phylogeographic reconstructions in a Bayesian framework pointed to a radial diffusion of HCV2 from Western African regions encompassing today's countries like Ghana, Guinea Bissau, or Burkina Faso, to Central and Northern African regions that took place from the 16th century onwards. The spread of HCV2 coincided in time and space with the main historic slave trade and commerce routes, supported by Bayesian tip-association significance testing (P = 0.01). Our study confirms the evolutionary origins of HCV2 in Western Africa and provides a potential link between historic human movements and HCV2 dispersion

Households as hotspots of Lassa fever? Assessing the spatial distribution of Lassa virus-infected rodents in rural villages of Guinea

The Natal multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) is the reservoir host of Lassa virus (LASV), an arenavirus that causes Lassa haemorrhagic fever in humans in West Africa. While previous studies suggest that spillover risk is focal within rural villages due to the spatial behaviour of the rodents, the level of clustering was never specifically assessed. Nevertheless, detailed information on the spatial distribution of infected rodents would be highly valuable to optimize LASV-control campaigns, which are limited to rodent control or interrupting human–rodent contact considering that a human vaccine is not available. Here, we analysed data from a four-year field experiment to investigate whether LASV-infected rodents cluster in households in six rural villages in Guinea. Our analyses were based on the infection status (antibody or PCR) and geolocation of rodents (n = 864), and complemented with a phylogenetic analysis of LASV sequences (n = 119). We observed that the majority of infected rodents were trapped in a few houses (20%) and most houses were rodent-free at a specific point in time (60%). We also found that LASV strains circulating in a specific village were polyphyletic with respect to neighbouring villages, although most strains grouped together at the sub-village level and persisted over time. In conclusion, our results suggest that: (i) LASV spillover risk is heterogeneously distributed within villages in Guinea; (ii) viral elimination in one particular village is unlikely if rodents are not controlled in neighbouring villages. Such spatial information should be incorporated into eco-epidemiological models that assess the cost-efficiency of LASV control strategies

Extending the ‘social’: Anthropological contributions to the study of viral haemorrhagic fevers

Anthropology and the One-Health Agenda for VHF Emerging Viral Haemorrhagic Fevers (VHFs) offer a frontier for a “One-Health ” research agenda; the joined-up, or collaborative, effort of multiple disciplines to attain optimal health for people, animals, and the environment (e.g.

Rat-atouille: A Mixed Method Study to Characterize Rodent Hunting and Consumption in the Context of Lassa Fever

Lassa fever is a zoonotic hemorrhagic illness predominant in areas across Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia, and southern Mali. The reservoir of Lassa virus is the multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis), a highly commensal species in West Africa. Primary transmission to humans occurs through direct or indirect contact with rodent body fluids such as urine, feces, saliva, or blood. Our research draws together qualitative and quantitative methods to provide a fuller and more nuanced perspective on these varied points of human–animal contact. In this article, we focus on the hunting, preparation, and consumption of rodents as possible routes of exposure in Bo, Sierra Leone. We found that the consumption of rodents, including the reservoir species, is widespread and does not neatly tally against generational or gender lines. Further, we found that the reasons for rodent consumption are multifactorial, including taste preferences, food security, and opportunistic behavior. We argue that on certain topics, such as rodent consumption, establishing trust with communities, and using qualitative research methods, is key to investigate sensitive issues and situate them in their wider context. To conclude, we recommend ways to refine sensitization campaigns to account for these socio-cultural contexts

Domestic risk factors for increased rodent abundance in a Lassa fever endemic region of rural Upper Guinea

Lassa fever (LF) is a viral haemorrhagic fever endemic in West Africa and spread primarily by the multimammate rat, Mastomys natalensis. As there is no vaccine, reduction of rodent-human transmission is essential for disease control. As the household is thought to be a key site of transmission, understanding domestic risk factors for M. natalensis abundance is crucial. Rodent captures in conjunction with domestic surveys were carried out in 6 villages in an area of rural Upper Guinea with high LF endemicity. 120 rodent traps were set in rooms along a transect in each village for three nights, and the survey was administered in each household on the transects. This study was able to detect several domestic risk factors for increased rodent abundance in rural Upper Guinea. Regression analysis demonstrated that having > 8 holes (RR = 1.8 [1.0004-3.2, p = 0.048), the presence of rodent burrows (RR = 2.3 [1.6-3.23, p = 0.000003), and being in a multi-room square building (RR = 2.0 [1.3-2.9], p = 0.001) were associated with increased rodent abundance. The most addressable of these may be rodent burrows, as burrow patching is a relatively simple process that may reduce rodent entry. Further study is warranted to explicitly link domestic rodent abundance to LF risk, to better characterize domestic risk factors, and to evaluate how household rodent-proofing interventions could contribute to LF control

A Unified Framework for the Infection Dynamics of Zoonotic Spillover and Spread.

A considerable amount of disease is transmitted from animals to humans and many of these zoonoses are neglected tropical diseases. As outbreaks of SARS, avian influenza and Ebola have demonstrated, however, zoonotic diseases are serious threats to global public health and are not just problems confined to remote regions. There are two fundamental, and poorly studied, stages of zoonotic disease emergence: 'spillover', i.e. transmission of pathogens from animals to humans, and 'stuttering transmission', i.e. when limited human-to-human infections occur, leading to self-limiting chains of transmission. We developed a transparent, theoretical framework, based on a generalization of Poisson processes with memory of past human infections, that unifies these stages. Once we have quantified pathogen dynamics in the reservoir, with some knowledge of the mechanism of contact, the approach provides a tool to estimate the likelihood of spillover events. Comparisons with independent agent-based models demonstrates the ability of the framework to correctly estimate the relative contributions of human-to-human vs animal transmission. As an illustrative example, we applied our model to Lassa fever, a rodent-borne, viral haemorrhagic disease common in West Africa, for which data on human outbreaks were available. The approach developed here is general and applicable to a range of zoonoses. This kind of methodology is of crucial importance for the scientific, medical and public health communities working at the interface between animal and human diseases to assess the risk associated with the disease and to plan intervention and appropriate control measures. The Lassa case study revealed important knowledge gaps, and opportunities, arising from limited knowledge of the temporal patterns in reporting, abundance of and infection prevalence in, the host reservoir.Natural Environment Research Council (project no.: NEJ001570-1), Department for International Development, Economic and Social Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, Fogarty International Center USA, European Union FP7 (project ANTIGONE (contract number 278976)), Royal Society (Wolfson Research Merit Award), Alborada Trust, US National Institute of Health (P20GM103501, BAANIAID-DAIT-NIHQI2008031, HHSN272201000022C, HHSN272200900049C, 1U19AI109762, 1R01AI104621, 2R44AI088843), USAID/NIH PEER Health grant.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from the Public Library of Science via http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.000495

Using modelling to disentangle the relative contributions of zoonotic and anthroponotic transmission: the case of lassa fever.

BACKGROUND: Zoonotic infections, which transmit from animals to humans, form the majority of new human pathogens. Following zoonotic transmission, the pathogen may already have, or may acquire, the ability to transmit from human to human. With infections such as Lassa fever (LF), an often fatal, rodent-borne, hemorrhagic fever common in areas of West Africa, rodent-to-rodent, rodent-to-human, human-to-human and even human-to-rodent transmission patterns are possible. Indeed, large hospital-related outbreaks have been reported. Estimating the proportion of transmission due to human-to-human routes and related patterns (e.g. existence of super-spreaders), in these scenarios is challenging, but essential for planned interventions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we make use of an innovative modeling approach to analyze data from published outbreaks and the number of LF hospitalized patients to Kenema Government Hospital in Sierra Leone to estimate the likely contribution of human-to-human transmission. The analyses show that almost [Formula: see text] of the cases at KGH are secondary cases arising from human-to-human transmission. However, we found much of this transmission is associated with a disproportionally large impact of a few individuals ('super-spreaders'), as we found only [Formula: see text] of human cases result in an effective reproduction number (i.e. the average number of secondary cases per infectious case) [Formula: see text], with a maximum value up to [Formula: see text]. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This work explains the discrepancy between the sizes of reported LF outbreaks and a clinical perception that human-to-human transmission is low. Future assessment of risks of LF and infection control guidelines should take into account the potentially large impact of super-spreaders in human-to-human transmission. Our work highlights several neglected topics in LF research, the occurrence and nature of super-spreading events and aspects of social behavior in transmission and detection.This work for the Dynamic Drivers of Disease in Africa Consortium, NERC project no. NE-J001570-1, was funded with support from the Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) programme. The ESPA programme is funded by the Department for International Development (DFID), the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). See more at: http://www.espa.ac.uk/about/identity/acknowledging-espafunding# sthash.UivKPObf.dpuf. GL, JLNW, AAC, CTW and EFC also benefit from the support of the small mammal disease working group, funded by the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) programme of the Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, and Fogarty International Center, USA. JLNW and AC were also supported by the European Union FP7 project ANTIGONE (contract number 278976). AAC is supported by a Royal Society Wolfson Reearch Merit Award. JLNW is also supported by the Alborada Trust. JSS, LM, RG, and JGS were supported by the US National Institute of Health (JSS: NIH grant P20GM103501; LM, RG, JGS: NIH grant BAA-NIAID-DAIT-NIHQI2008031).This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://www.plosntds.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pntd.0003398

Hantavirus in African Wood Mouse, Guinea

Hantaviruses are rodentborne, emerging viruses that cause life-threatening human diseases in Eurasia and the Americas. We detected hantavirus genome sequences in an African wood mouse (Hylomyscus simus) captured in Sangassou, Guinea. Sequence and phylogenetic analyses of the genetic material demonstrate a novel hantavirus species, which we propose to name "Sangassou virus.