The search for spinning black hole binaries in mock LISA data using a genetic algorithm

Coalescing massive Black Hole binaries are the strongest and probably the most important gravitational wave sources in the LISA band. The spin and orbital precessions bring complexity in the waveform and make the likelihood surface richer in structure as compared to the non-spinning case. We introduce an extended multimodal genetic algorithm which utilizes the properties of the signal and the detector response function to analyze the data from the third round of mock LISA data challenge (MLDC 3.2). The performance of this method is comparable, if not better, to already existing algorithms. We have found all five sources present in MLDC 3.2 and recovered the coalescence time, chirp mass, mass ratio and sky location with reasonable accuracy. As for the orbital angular momentum and two spins of the Black Holes, we have found a large number of widely separated modes in the parameter space with similar maximum likelihood values.Comment: 25 pages, 9 figure

BAMBI: blind accelerated multimodal Bayesian inference

In this paper we present an algorithm for rapid Bayesian analysis that combines the benefits of nested sampling and artificial neural networks. The blind accelerated multimodal Bayesian inference (BAMBI) algorithm implements the MultiNest package for nested sampling as well as the training of an artificial neural network (NN) to learn the likelihood function. In the case of computationally expensive likelihoods, this allows the substitution of a much more rapid approximation in order to increase significantly the speed of the analysis. We begin by demonstrating, with a few toy examples, the ability of a NN to learn complicated likelihood surfaces. BAMBI's ability to decrease running time for Bayesian inference is then demonstrated in the context of estimating cosmological parameters from Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe and other observations. We show that valuable speed increases are achieved in addition to obtaining NNs trained on the likelihood functions for the different model and data combinations. These NNs can then be used for an even faster follow-up analysis using the same likelihood and different priors. This is a fully general algorithm that can be applied, without any pre-processing, to other problems with computationally expensive likelihood functions.Comment: 12 pages, 8 tables, 17 figures; accepted by MNRAS; v2 to reflect minor changes in published versio

Use of the MultiNest algorithm for gravitational wave data analysis

We describe an application of the MultiNest algorithm to gravitational wave data analysis. MultiNest is a multimodal nested sampling algorithm designed to efficiently evaluate the Bayesian evidence and return posterior probability densities for likelihood surfaces containing multiple secondary modes. The algorithm employs a set of live points which are updated by partitioning the set into multiple overlapping ellipsoids and sampling uniformly from within them. This set of live points climbs up the likelihood surface through nested iso-likelihood contours and the evidence and posterior distributions can be recovered from the point set evolution. The algorithm is model-independent in the sense that the specific problem being tackled enters only through the likelihood computation, and does not change how the live point set is updated. In this paper, we consider the use of the algorithm for gravitational wave data analysis by searching a simulated LISA data set containing two non-spinning supermassive black hole binary signals. The algorithm is able to rapidly identify all the modes of the solution and recover the true parameters of the sources to high precision.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures, submitted to Class. Quantum Grav; v2 includes various changes in light of referee's comment

Bayesian posterior repartitioning for nested sampling

Priors in Bayesian analyses often encode informative domain knowledge that can be useful in making the inference process more efficient. Occasionally, however, priors may be unrepresentative of the parameter values for a given dataset, which can result in inefficient parameter space exploration, or even incorrect inferences, particularly for nested sampling (NS) algorithms. Simply broadening the prior in such cases may be inappropriate or impossible in some applications. Hence our previous solution to this problem, known as posterior repartitioning (PR), redefines the prior and likelihood while keeping their product fixed, so that the posterior inferences and evidence estimates remain unchanged, but the efficiency of the NS process is significantly increased. In its most practical form, PR raises the prior to some power $\beta$, which is introduced as an auxiliary variable that must be determined on a case-by-case basis, usually by lowering $\beta$ from unity according to some pre-defined `annealing schedule' until the resulting inferences converge to a consistent solution. Here we present a very simple yet powerful alternative Bayesian approach, in which $\beta$ is instead treated as a hyperparameter that is inferred from the data alongside the original parameters of the problem, and then marginalised over to obtain the final inference. We show through numerical examples that this Bayesian PR (BPR) method provides a very robust, self-adapting and computationally efficient `hands-off' solution to the problem of unrepresentative priors in Bayesian inference using NS. Moreover, unlike the original PR method, we show that even for representative priors BPR has a negligible computational overhead relative to standard nesting sampling, which suggests that it should be used as the default in all NS analyses

Classifying LISA gravitational wave burst signals using Bayesian evidence

We consider the problem of characterisation of burst sources detected with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) using the multi-modal nested sampling algorithm, MultiNest. We use MultiNest as a tool to search for modelled bursts from cosmic string cusps, and compute the Bayesian evidence associated with the cosmic string model. As an alternative burst model, we consider sine-Gaussian burst signals, and show how the evidence ratio can be used to choose between these two alternatives. We present results from an application of MultiNest to the last round of the Mock LISA Data Challenge, in which we were able to successfully detect and characterise all three of the cosmic string burst sources present in the release data set. We also present results of independent trials and show that MultiNest can detect cosmic string signals with signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) as low as ~7 and sine-Gaussian signals with SNR as low as ~8. In both cases, we show that the threshold at which the sources become detectable coincides with the SNR at which the evidence ratio begins to favour the correct model over the alternative.Comment: 21 pages, 11 figures, accepted by CQG; v2 has minor changes for consistency with accepted versio

Further Sunyaev-Zel'dovich observations of two Planck ERCSC clusters with the Arcminute Microkelvin Imager

We present follow-up observations of two galaxy clusters detected blindly via the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect and released in the Planck Early Release Compact Source Catalogue. We use the Arcminute Microkelvin Imager, a dual-array 14-18 GHz radio interferometer. After radio source subtraction, we find a SZ decrement of integrated flux density -1.08+/-0.10 mJy toward PLCKESZ G121.11+57.01, and improve the position measurement of the cluster, finding the centre to be RA 12 59 36.4, Dec +60 04 46.8, to an accuracy of 20 arcseconds. The region of PLCKESZ G115.71+17.52 contains strong extended emission, so we are unable to confirm the presence of this cluster via the SZ effect.Comment: 4 tables, 3 figures, revised after referee's comments and resubmitted to MNRA

Fitting the Phenomenological MSSM

We perform a global Bayesian fit of the phenomenological minimal supersymmetric standard model (pMSSM) to current indirect collider and dark matter data. The pMSSM contains the most relevant 25 weak-scale MSSM parameters, which are simultaneously fit using `nested sampling' Monte Carlo techniques in more than 15 years of CPU time. We calculate the Bayesian evidence for the pMSSM and constrain its parameters and observables in the context of two widely different, but reasonable, priors to determine which inferences are robust. We make inferences about sparticle masses, the sign of the $\mu$ parameter, the amount of fine tuning, dark matter properties and the prospects for direct dark matter detection without assuming a restrictive high-scale supersymmetry breaking model. We find the inferred lightest CP-even Higgs boson mass as an example of an approximately prior independent observable. This analysis constitutes the first statistically convergent pMSSM global fit to all current data.Comment: Added references, paragraph on fine-tunin