Testing the BalassA-Samuelson hypothesis in two different groups of countries: OECD and Latin America

This paper studies the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis (BSH) in the context of two areas with strong differences in economic development, twelve OECD countries and twelve Latin American economies, taking the USA as the benchmark. Applying panel cointegration techniques, we find that while the first stage of the hypothesis, which links productivities and prices, is satisfied in each group of countries, the second stage, which relates relative sector prices with the real exchange rate, only holds in the Latin American area. The failure of the latter in the OECD countries as a whole is reflected in departures from PPP in the tradable sectors.Balassa-Samuelson effect, Panel cointegration, Economic development, Exchange rate systems

The over-evaluation of the real exchange rate of the Spanish economy

En la primera parte de este trabajo se aplica el modelo de bienes comercializables y no comercializables para caracterizar los desequilibrios principales de la economía española y deducir la ecuación que fundamenta el «Efecto Penn». En la segunda parte se estima esa ecuación con datos anuales de sección transversal para dos amplias muestras de países y para cada uno de los años del periodo 2000-2009. Se obtiene que en 2002 el tipo de cambio real de la economía española inició un proceso de sobrevaloración frente al resto del mundo que alcanzó su máximo en 2008 (entre el 27% y 29% ). En 2009, se redujo a un nivel entre el 17% y el 19% por el impacto deflacionario de la crisis económica. El trabajo analiza los desequilibrios que acompañaron a este desajuste, y deduce algunas prescripciones de política económica para contrarrestarlos y/o resolverlosIn the first part of this work we apply tradables and non-tradables model to characterise the main economic imbalances of the Spanish economy and to derive the equation that rationalizes and supports the Penn effect. In the second part, we estimate the Penn effect equation using annual cross-sectional data ot two large samples of countries for each year of the period 2000-2009. We observe that real exchange rate of the Spanish economy with respect of rest of the world started an overvalaution rate dropped to 17%-19% in 2009, as result of the deflationary impact of the finnacial crisis. We analyse the the economic imbalances that accompany this misalignment, and deduce some policy prescriptions to solve themLos autores agradecen la ayuda financiera de la Fundación Séneca, «Ayudas para la realización de proyectos de investigación en Humanidades y Ciencias Sociales», proyecto 15183/PHCS/1

Beyond the Salassa-Samuelson Effect in some New Member States of the European Union

This paper analyses the Balassa and Samuelson hypothesis in two groups of European countries: six New Member States (NMS) and six advanced EU-15 economies. It is found that the second stage of the hypothesis, which relates relative sector prices with the real exchange rate, does not hold anywhere. In the NMS the main reasons are increased demand for domestic tradables stemming from positive differentials in economic growth, probably coupled with quality improvements in domestic tradable goods. In the EU-15, the explanatory factor is segmentation between national markets of tradables, caused by transportation costs, non-tariff barriers and imperfect competition between firms.Balassa-Samuelson effect, panel cointegration, economic transition, market segmentation, quality bias

The Current Account Reversails in the Peripheral Countries of the Eurozone

Analizamos aquí las reversiones de las cuentas corrientes en los países periféricos de la zona euro (ZES), Grecia, Italia, España, Portugal e Irlanda, durante los años de la crisis financiera. Después de determinar la tendencia e inicio de estos procesos, investigamos los costes implicados en cada país, utilizando un modelo keynesiano para economías abiertas. Estimamos el modelo con datos de panel del periodo 1999-2013. Nuestros resultados indican que cada país de la muestra sufrió costes significativos en términos de PIB, que van desde 32% en Grecia, hasta 6% en Irlanda. Estos hallazgos nos permiten obtener prescripciones de política económica, tanto para los gobiernos de los ZES como para las autoridades nacionales del núcleo de la zona euro.We analyze the current-account reversals in the peripheral countries of the euro zone (ZES), Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland, during the financial crisis episode. After determining the trend and start date of reversals, we investigate the involved economic costs in each country using a Keynesian model for open economies. We estimate the model with panel data of the period 1999-2013. Our results indicate that each country of the sample suffered significant costs in terms of GDP losses, going from 32% in Greece to 6% in Ireland. Results allow us to derive policy prescriptions for the governments of both peripheral and northern economies of the Eurozone

La reversión de las cuentas corrientes en los países periféricos de la Zona Euro

Analizamos aquí las reversiones de las cuentas corrientes en los países periféricos de la zona euro (ZES), Grecia, Italia, España, Portugal e Irlanda, durante los años de la crisis financiera. Después de determinar la tendencia e inicio de estos procesos, investigamos los costes implicados en cada país, utilizando un modelo keynesiano para economías abiertas. Estimamos el modelo con datos de panel del periodo 1999-2013. Nuestros resultados indican que cada país de la muestra sufrió costes significativos en términos de PIB, que van desde 32% en Grecia, hasta 6% en Irlanda. Estos hallazgos nos permiten obtener prescripciones de política económica, tanto para los gobiernos de los ZES como para las autoridades nacionales del núcleo de la zona euro

External competition flattens the Phillips Curve

In this paper we elaborate an open economy Phillips curve (OEPC) with micro-founded analysis, in which external competition significantly impacts the domestic inflation rate. This influence is transmitted through two channels: a) the gap between the current and potential growth of imports, and b) real exchange-rate misalignment. We estimate this OEPC by applying two econometric techniques, panel regressions and PVAR accompanied by impulse/response analysis. A sample of 15 advanced economies is used with data for the period 1994-2017. The results from both methodologies endorse the validity of this theoretical relationship and suggest that international competition reduces the pricing power of domestic firms, thereby curbing inflationary pressures. We also find that the slope of the OEPC has significantly declined in the years after the Great Recession

Clonal chromosomal mosaicism and loss of chromosome Y in elderly men increase vulnerability for SARS-CoV-2

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) had an estimated overall case fatality ratio of 1.38% (pre-vaccination), being 53% higher in males and increasing exponentially with age. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, we found 133 cases (1.42%) with detectable clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations (mCA) and 226 males (5.08%) with acquired loss of chromosome Y (LOY). Individuals with clonal mosaic events (mCA and/or LOY) showed a 54% increase in the risk of COVID-19 lethality. LOY is associated with transcriptomic biomarkers of immune dysfunction, pro-coagulation activity and cardiovascular risk. Interferon-induced genes involved in the initial immune response to SARS-CoV-2 are also down-regulated in LOY. Thus, mCA and LOY underlie at least part of the sex-biased severity and mortality of COVID-19 in aging patients. Given its potential therapeutic and prognostic relevance, evaluation of clonal mosaicism should be implemented as biomarker of COVID-19 severity in elderly people. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, individuals with clonal mosaic events (clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations and/or loss of chromosome Y) showed an increased risk of COVID-19 lethality

La fijación de metas de inflación da buenos resultados en América Latina

Incluye BibliografíaEn este artículo se sintetiza el aporte que la economía feminista ha realizado al análisis económico, al exponer, visibilizar y explicar el papel funcional del trabajo doméstico y de cuidado de las personas. Se señala la debilidad del tratamiento que las distintas corrientes de pensamiento económico le han dado históricamente al tema, para luego explicitar la manera en que esta dimensión resulta esencial para comprender el funcionamiento sistémico. Asimismo, se da cuenta de las derivaciones conceptuales, metodológicas y de política económica que tiene la incorporación de este espacio de análisis, y de su relevancia para avanzar en una agenda que atienda a las dimensiones económicas de la inequidad de género

Inflation targeting works well in Latin America

Includes bibliographyThis paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting (it) in five Latin American countries during the period 2000-2007. We perform three types of econometric tests, which coincide in showing that it regimes have contributed to decreasing the level and variability of both the rate of inflation and the short-term interest rate, compared with a group of non-it Latin American countries. Moreover, our empirical analysis clearly reveals that it has led to lower variability in gdp growth, but the net effects on the level of economic growth remain unclear. The main technical innovation of this paper is the estimation of a treatment effects model to solve the endogeneity problem of adopting it, which is inherently present in most of the econometric tests applied so far in this field