A Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for the molecular clock on Bayesian ensembles of phylogenies

Divergence date estimates are central to understand evolutionary processes and depend, in the case of molecular phylogenies, on tests of molecular clocks. Here we propose two non-parametric tests of strict and relaxed molecular clocks built upon a framework that uses the empirical cumulative distribution (ECD) of branch lengths obtained from an ensemble of Bayesian trees and well known non-parametric (one-sample and two-sample) Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) goodness-of-fit test. In the strict clock case, the method consists in using the one-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test to directly test if the phylogeny is clock-like, in other words, if it follows a Poisson law. The ECD is computed from the discretized branch lengths and the parameter $\lambda$ of the expected Poisson distribution is calculated as the average branch length over the ensemble of trees. To compensate for the auto-correlation in the ensemble of trees and pseudo-replication we take advantage of thinning and effective sample size, two features provided by Bayesian inference MCMC samplers. Finally, it is observed that tree topologies with very long or very short branches lead to Poisson mixtures and in this case we propose the use of the two-sample KS test with samples from two continuous branch length distributions, one obtained from an ensemble of clock-constrained trees and the other from an ensemble of unconstrained trees. Moreover, in this second form the test can also be applied to test for relaxed clock models. The use of a statistically equivalent ensemble of phylogenies to obtain the branch lengths ECD, instead of one consensus tree, yields considerable reduction of the effects of small sample size and provides again of power.Comment: 14 pages, 9 figures, 8 tables. Minor revision, additin of a new example and new title. Software: https://github.com/FernandoMarcon/PKS_Test.gi

A Comparison of the Ovulation Method With the CUE Ovulation Predictor in Determining the Fertile Period

The purpose of this study was to compare the CUE Ovulation Predictor with the ovulation method in determining the fertile period. Eleven regularly ovulating women measured their salivary and vaginal electrical resistance (ER) with the CUE, observed their cervical-vaginal mucus, and measured their urine for a luteinizing hormone (LH) surge on a daily basis. Data from 21 menstrual cycles showed no statistical difference (T= 0.33, p= 0.63) between the CUE fertile period, which ranged from 5 to 10 days (mean = 6.7 days, SD = 1.6), and the fertile period of the ovulation method, which ranged from 4 to 9 days (mean = 6.5 days, SD = 2.0). The CUE has potential as an adjunctive device in the learning and use of natural family planning methods

An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Success of Food and Agribusiness E-Commerce Firms

E-commerce's value creation in agricultural and food markets will only occur to the extent that e-commerce firms exist throughout the supply chain. The problem is that e-commerce firms throughout the agricultural and food supply chain have faced a serious challenge in staying in business. Many have been forced to exit the market, and only a few have survived to develop into functional web-based businesses. The objective of this research study is to identify characteristics that are associated with successful e-commerce firms throughout the agricultural and food supply chain. Relevant e-commerce and agricultural e-commerce literature suggests several characteristics that influence the success for agricultural and food e-commerce firms. A limited-dependent variable technique, logistic regression, is used to relate websites' characteristics to their probability of survival.e-commerce, food chains, survival probability, logistical regression, Agribusiness,

Managerial Overconfidence and Corporate Risk Management

We show that managerial overconfidence, which has been found to influence a number of corporate financial decisions, also affects corporate risk management. We find that managers increase their speculative activities using derivatives following speculative gains, while they do not reduce their speculative activities following speculative losses. This asymmetric response follows from selective selfattribution: successes tend to be attributed to one’s own skill, while failures tend to be attributed to bad luck. Thus, our results show that managerial behavioral biases can also impact corporate risk management.corporate risk management, behavioral biases, managerial overconfidence, speculation

MicroRNAs in B cell development and malignancy

MicroRNAs are small RNA molecules that regulate gene expression and play critical roles in B cell development and malignancy. miRNA expression is important globally, as B cell specific knockouts of Dicer show profound defects in B cell development; and is also critical at the level of specific miRNAs. In this review, we discuss miRNAs that are involved in normal B cell development in the bone marrow and during B cell activation and terminal differentiation in the periphery. Next, we turn to miRNAs that are dysregulated during diseases of B cells, including malignant diseases and autoimmunity. Further study of miRNAs and their targets will lead to a better understanding of B cell development, and should also lead to the development of novel therapeutic strategies against B cell diseases

Visual analysis of document triage data

As part of the information seeking process, a large amount of effort is invested in order to study and understand how information seekers search through documents such that they can assess their relevance. This search and assessment of document relevance, known as document triage, is an important information seeking process, but is not yet well understood. Human-computer interaction (HCI) and digital library scientists have undertaken a series of user studies involving information seeking, collected a large amount of data describing information seekers' behavior during document search. Next to this, we have witnessed a rapid increase in the number of off-the-shelf visualization tools which can benefit document triage study. Here we set out to utilize existing information visualization techniques and tools in order to gain a better understanding of the large amount of user-study data collected by HCI and digital library researchers. We describe the range of available tools and visualizations we use in order to increase our knowledge of document triage. Treemap, parallel coordinates, stack graph, matrix chart, as well as other visualization methods, prove to be insightful in exploring, analyzing and presenting user behavior during document triage. Our findings and visualizations are evaluated by HCI and digital library researchers studying this proble

Why Do Firms Engage in Selective Hedging?

Surveys of corporate risk management document that selective hedging, where managers incorporate their market views into firms’ hedging programs, is widespread in the U.S. and other countries. Stulz (1996) argues that selective hedging could enhance the value of firms that possess an information advantage relative to the market and have the financial strength to withstand the additional risk from market timing. We study the practice of selective hedging in a 10-year sample of North American gold mining firms and find that selective hedging is most prevalent among firms that are least likely to meet these valuemaximizing criteria -- (a) smaller firms, i.e., firms that are least likely to have private information about future gold prices; and (b) firms that are closest to financial distress. The latter finding provides support for the alternative possibility suggested by Stulz that selective hedging may also be driven by asset substitution motives. We detect weak relationships between selective hedging and some corporate governance measures, especially board size, but find no evidence of a link between selective hedging and managerial compensation.Corporate risk management, selective hedging, speculation, financial distress, corporate governance, managerial compensation

Electromotive force and internal resistance of an electron pump

We present a scattering theory of the electromotive force and internal resistance of an electron pump. The characterization of the device performance in terms of only two parameters requires the assumption of incoherent multiple scattering within the circuit and complete thermalization among electrons moving in a given direction. The electromotive force is shown to be of the order of the driving frequency in natural units. In an open setup, the electromotive force adds to the voltage difference between reservoirs to drive the current, both facing a contact resistance which is absent in the case of a closed circuit of uniform width